Indirect economic losses will reach 75 billion US dollars! Japan is never relieved of the spread of the epidemic ... Behind the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics, there are frequent dark battles →

The Torch Relay was urgently stopped, the torch relay was canceled, and the competition was forced to be delayed for one year. Among the various sports events around the world, the Tokyo Olympics is undoubtedly the most affected. The postponement of the Tokyo Olympics is not just a postponement of the event, Japan will also bear huge losses for this.

How was such a difficult decision made? What are the little-known secret battles behind this?

Japan once insisted that the Tokyo Olympics be held as scheduled

As early as the end of January, many media expressed pessimistic views on the scheduled holding of the Olympic Games. The Japanese side reiterated that it would not be cancelled three times within three weeks.

Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee Chairman Mori Mori: The determination to host the Olympic Games will definitely continue.

The International Olympic Committee also expressed its support.

International Olympic Committee Chairman Bach: We fully support the Committee ’s successful hosting of the 2020 Olympic Games.

Bach's statement temporarily suppressed the cancellation or postponement of the Olympics. But soon someone came forward to break this fragile calm.

On February 25, the Associated Press released heavy news: Pound, a senior member of the International Olympic Committee, said that if the epidemic is not controlled in late May, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics may be cancelled.

Pound's remarks put the Tokyo Olympic Committee under heavy pressure. At this time, Japan's attitude is still firm. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe personally said that the Japanese government is preparing for the Tokyo Olympics as scheduled. Almost at the same time, Bach's attitude also began to become subtle.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: I think the Tokyo Olympics and Tokyo Paralympic Games should be held perfectly, making it a symbol of human victory over the new crown virus. This idea is supported by G7.

On March 18, the International Olympic Committee held a conference call with 220 athletes from around the world for more than two hours. The original intention was to encourage everyone to prepare for the Olympic Games, but it caused many athletes to complain.

Athlete Skinner: I think the Tokyo Olympics should be postponed. I think this is the best option at the moment. If we want to host an Olympics that is not boycotted, then postponing the event is the only option.

The situation soon rose from the individual level to the national level. Canada took the lead in stating that if the Olympics were not postponed, they would not send people to participate. Australia, Switzerland, Norway, and the United Kingdom also followed up and expressed similar views.

As a result, the International Olympic Committee, which is struggling both internally and externally, could not bear it and said it would discuss the fate of the Tokyo Olympics. The Japanese side also mentioned the possibility of postponing the Olympic Games for the first time on March 23.

Japanese expert Zhang Hong: In this incident, the Japanese side and the International Olympic Committee have long shown a relationship of progress and retreat. But in fact, it is not entirely true. In the middle of the whole incident, the two sides actually still have differences.

Tokyo Olympics postpones Japan with heavy losses

The decision process for the extension of the Tokyo Olympics is full of games from all sides, especially from Japan. With the global spread of the epidemic and the fact that the Tokyo Olympics are virtually impossible to hold as scheduled, Japan still will not let up. It is only after the International Olympic Committee has expressed its position that it has to raise its hand to agree.

What is the game between the parties? The answer is of course money.

According to "Japan Economic Research" statistics, the Japanese government has invested about US $ 40 billion in the construction of venues and hotel guests.

If the Tokyo Olympics is postponed for one year, the related venue maintenance and management fees and the funds required by various competitive groups to hold qualifying matches will total a loss of $ 5.8 billion.

Japanese expert Zhang Hong: If it is postponed for one year, all venues, momentum, and operations must continue. In this year, the budgets of various Japanese institutions must be increased.

According to the forecast of Nikko Securities, if the Olympics cannot be held this year, the indirect economic loss will be as large as 75 billion US dollars, accounting for 1.4% of Japan's annual GDP. The delay may bring negative growth of 0.7% -1.4% to Japan's GDP.

At the closing ceremony of the 2016 Rio Olympics, Abe unexpectedly played in the image of Super Mario, hoping to host the Olympics as soon as possible to improve the long-term economic downturn in Japan. It is generally believed in Japan that as early as 56 years ago, the Olympic Games saved the Japanese National Games for the first time.

In the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, Japan invested 1 trillion yen, about 3 billion US dollars at the time, to support related construction. Large-scale infrastructure construction promoted the rapid growth of the national economy and gave birth to the "Olympic boom" of 1962-1964.

The data shows that in terms of real GDP growth rate in Japan, it was 7.0% in 1962, rose to 10.5% in 1963, and reached 13.1% in 1964. The economic strength and urban style of Tokyo and even Japan have changed qualitatively.

Japanese expert Zhang Hong: At that time, Japan had a high-speed railway. It was not called the high-speed railway, but called the Shinkansen. The Shinkansen was built at this time, greatly shortening the liaison between two major industrial areas in Japan.

Japan, which has tasted the sweetness of the Olympics, once again pinned its hopes on the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, and poured in enormous human and financial resources. It is eager to take this opportunity to reproduce the glory of yesterday.

However, the outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has cast a thick cloud on the prospect of the Tokyo Olympics.

Many race arrangements face "crash"

The reason for the delay of the Tokyo Olympics is that it will not only cause huge losses to Japan, but also the Olympic sponsors, TV broadcasters, and even the International Olympic Committee and other sports events will be significantly affected.

In the summer of 2021, large-scale sports events such as the World Championships in Athletics, the World University Summer Games, and the World Club Cup have been arranged. The European Cup and the America ’s Cup originally planned to be held in 2020 were postponed to the summer of 2021 due to the impact of the epidemic. Therefore, the postponement of the Olympic Games to next summer will bring a series of chain reactions.

He Wenyi, a researcher at the National Sports Industry Research Base of Peking University: The Olympic Games and World Championships are all scheduled events in advance, and they are very tightly arranged. The IAAF track and field championship has been postponed, and after this has been pushed back, the Asian Games may have an impact by 2022. Including the Winter Olympics, the original Summer Olympics and the Winter Olympics were separated by two years, but now it has been pushed back, and it has become a difference of six months. It will definitely have an impact.

On March 3, American entertainment and media company NBC Universal announced that the company had sold approximately US $ 1.25 billion in national advertisements for the Tokyo Olympics, and 90% of the advertising space for the Olympic Games was fully booked. Now, how to deal with these ads has become a new trouble.

In the planning of the Tokyo Olympics Committee, the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games is expected to generate approximately 630 billion yen, of which nearly two-thirds will come from sponsors. However, the sponsoring years of different sponsors may also overlap due to the postponement of the Olympics.

In June 2019, Mengniu and Coca-Cola jointly signed a $ 3 billion, 12-year contract with the International Olympic Committee and became a TOP co-sponsor, with the contract effective from 2021. The Japanese dairy company Meiji is the domestic sponsor of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games and "Gold Partner of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games".

TOP sponsors have exclusive rights, which means that among the sponsors of the same period, no other companies with competitive relationships are allowed to exist, which will also become a major problem in the list of sponsors of the Tokyo Olympics.

In addition to events, copyrights, commercial sponsorships, and other business interests, the business stakeholders associated with the world-class IP, such as the Olympic Games, also involve sports marketing, derivatives, and even secondary yuan. The dominoes pushed down by the extension of the Tokyo Olympics are touching more and more nerves.