Minimum risk, maximum spectacles: why is it profitable for the UFC to replace Nurmagomedov with Gatzhi

Khabib Nurmagomedov

If you look at the current situation with the cancellation of the main fight UFC 249 from the point of view of the current champion in lightweight, nothing bad happened. The coronavirus pandemic left a serious imprint on both the physical and psychological state of Nurmagomedov. Preparation was, if not disrupted, at least seriously damaged, which could affect his actions in the octagon. Given the style of combat Khabib, he should always be in perfect shape, because the fight takes much more energy than action in a rack.

Suffice it to recall the battle between Conor McGregor and Chad Mendes in 2015. Then the American came out on a short notice and was unable to bring his body to optimal conditions. As a result, already in the end of the second round, his strength ran out, after which he became an easy target for the Irishman's whipping blows and was knocked out.

But Nurmagomedov cannot be blamed for not following Mendes’s example and not entering the cage. For that fight, Chad earned a record $ 500,000 for his career and took virtually no risk. Initially, he did not have to fight for the belt at all, but due to an injury, Jose Aldo got the right to compete for a temporary title. Habib is on the verge of a record for the number of defenses in the lightweight division and has an ideal track record, and failure will seriously hit his legacy.

In addition, one cannot ignore the fact that in a pandemic, a flight to another country could become a risk to the health of the Russian citizen. Even if he managed to resolve issues with closed borders and a ban on air travel, as well as avoid two-week quarantine, the danger was too great.

UFC

On paper, replacing Nurmagomedov with Gatzhi can hardly be considered equivalent and cannot fail to hit the ratings of the show. If the fight for the belt of the absolute lightweight champion between the two strongest lightweights of the planet promised to become historic, then the battle for the temporary title is not even close in terms of excitement.

But this refers to the usual time when each promotion regularly holds tournaments and provides fans with a spectacle. In a pandemic, the updated UFC 249 may well become one of the most successful events in the history of the Absolute Fighting Championship, even without Habib.

In fact, Dana White did the main thing - he kept the tournament itself, which in the current situation was a difficult task. Yes, the absence of Nurmagomedov and a number of other domestic fighters seriously hit the prestige of UFC 249 and deprived him of a solid part of the Russian audience.

But now the promotion is not so dependent on her to notice this loss. Especially taking into account the fact that in Russia the shows are broadcast either on video services or on national television, which deprives the organization of the income from the sale of PPV.

In the USA, interest in UFC 249 will certainly not be small. At a minimum, due to the lack of an alternative. Fans of mixed martial arts are surely hungry and will be happy to watch the battle between the two top fighters of the promotion, albeit for a temporary title. It’s enough to recall the example of broadcasting the matches of the Belarus football championship in Russia. Despite the not the highest quality of the product, many fans were delighted with the opportunity to watch live representatives of their favorite sport.

Tony Ferguson and Justin Gatgy

In this whole situation, the main lucky one is Gatgy. A few weeks ago, he was considered at least the third in a row to fight for the title and was going to go to war on the president of the UFC, if Conor McGregor got this opportunity earlier. But in a matter of days, he not only surpassed the Irishman, but also found himself on an equal footing with the winner of a winning streak of 12 battles. Now fate is in his hands, and only one success separates him from the battle with Nurmagomedov for the title.

Undoubtedly, all this does not seem very fair in relation to Ferguson. At least for the reason that he had long since earned the right to argue for the title of absolute champion, but the circumstances evolved against him each time. In 2018, he already missed this opportunity due to injury, and now the coronavirus has made its own adjustments. Perhaps it would be more correct to simply transfer the battle between Tony and Habib, but the American decided otherwise. Which is rather strange, given the fact that in April 2019 he already refused the battle for a temporary title. As a result, Dustin Porrier replaced him and took over Max Holloway.

It is still difficult to imagine what exactly was the reason for such a decision on the part of El Kukuy. Perhaps he understands the need to remove another competitor and strengthen his position, or does not want to upset fans of mixed martial arts. Also, one should not exclude the fact that White either threatened to deprive him of the status of the applicant, or promised to take his wishes into account during the sixth attempt to organize a rendezvous with Habib. In addition, the head of the UFC can hope that Tony will succumb to Justin, and he will not have to once again try his luck and try to bring Nurmagomedov to Ferguson.

Thus, Tony may become the first ever double holder of the UFC temporary title, but this record is unlikely to satisfy him. After all, on paper, he puts at stake all his achievements and status, and in return does not receive anything. This title is not a guarantee of the opportunity to fight for the championship, of which the American himself is well aware. In October 2017, he prevailed over Kevin Lee and won the belt, but due to injury he was deprived of it. In the end, he could only watch from the side, how Nurmagomedov deals with McGregor at the tournament in Las Vegas.

Fans

Nevertheless, the main duel of UFC 249 promises to be much more spectacular than the battle of Nurmagomedov with Ferguson. Given that both athletes would have approached her in optimal form, the duel would most likely have turned out to be one-sided and would have passed mainly on the floor. Despite his skills, it would be extremely difficult for Tony to avoid takedowns and resist the opponent’s unique wrestling skills, as a result of which most of the confrontation might not be very pleasing to the eye.

As for the chances of success, the lack of an American powerful single shot virtually eliminated the possibility of a knockout, as a result of which he had to rely on a sudden pain or dissection vis-a-vis. But taking into account the fact that Nurmagomedov had never bleed before during a fight in the UFC, this is hard to believe. And after the battle with Porrier, he probably worked on the bugs so as not to be locked in the guillotine again.

Unlike the champion, Gathey specializes in percussion technique, although he has a wrestling base. Each of his fights invariably turned into a brutal and uncompromising slaughter, which the audience liked so much. Recently, he began to pay a little more attention to defense and does not take each of the blows to the head, but still prefers exchange. It is enough to recall his encounters with the same Porrier and Edson Barboza, as well as a meeting with Donald Cerrone.

Ferguson also never refuses to “chop” in a rack and tries to give fans an unforgettable sight. This is evidenced by at least the fact that five of the last six fights with his participation were awarded the “Fight of the evening” award. The only exception was his fight with Lee, while the duel with Lando Vannat and Anthony Pettis is rightfully considered one of the most striking in the history of MMA.