Choking Habib, lucky punch of Dustin and dominance in five rounds: how can the battle of Nurmagomedov-Porje end

Nurmagomedov's victory by technical knockout

The current UFC lightweight champion is approaching his second title defense as a clear favorite. Nurmagomedov is spoken about by both his impressive winning streak and the fact that Dustin Porier is a fairly convenient opponent for him. Like Conor McGregor, the American is a pronounced drummer, unable to provide the Russians with decent resistance in the fight. This is evidenced by his ordinary skills in the stalls, not the most outstanding physical data, as well as problems with endurance. The latter were especially noticeable in the fight of the American with Max Holloway for the belt of the interim champion.

It is worth remembering that the battle with the Hawaiian from the beginning to the end took place in the stance, and the struggle takes much more power. Nurmagomedov will probably not enter into an open exchange with blows from Porie, but will work according to the same plan as in previous fights. The first two rounds, he will keep the enemy in the stalls, and only then will allow him to rise to his feet. True, exactly up to the moment when he feels confidence and holds a couple of powerful combinations.

At the same time, one should not exclude the option in which Habib can send his opponent to the floor. Of course, he does not have such a powerful blow as McGregor or the same Porrier, but has repeatedly achieved this. This is evidenced by the fact that at the moment in his asset eight wins by knockout are listed.

The most likely option is when the judge decides to stop beating Porrier on the ground. Nurmagomedov may well deprive his opponent of the opportunity to defend himself, and the referee will have no choice but to save Dustin from serious injuries.

Nurmagomedov’s victory by surrender

At the moment, Khabib’s assets include 17 early victories, and most of them were won as a result of successful painful tricks. This is how he got the better of his sworn enemy MacGregor, as well as Michael Johnson. But if the Irishman was forced to surrender by the “rear naked choke” (a stifling reception from behind), then the American fell for the “Kimura” (elbow lever). This happened at the UFC 205 tournament in New York, in the main event of which Conor became the first champion in history to be promoted in two divisions.

Despite the lack of basic wrestling skills, Porrier intensively studied Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and in 2017 he even received a black belt. In this regard, it will be difficult for Nurmagomedov to make his vis-a-vis surrender, but it is still impossible to exclude such an option. After several rounds in the stalls, many athletes will prefer to end their torment at any cost. That's what McGregor did, unable to control the power of the current champion.

In addition, Porier had previously lost by surrender. This happened in his third fight under the auspices of the UFC, which took place in May 2012. Then he succumbed to Chon Chan Son, falling into the strangulation of d'Arce (D'Arce Choke). True, a few seconds before that he missed a series of powerful blows and was in a state of grogging.

Nurmagomedov's victory by judicial decision

Undoubtedly, most victories in the career of a Russian were won in this way, but this time such a development of events seems not only unlikely, but also undesirable. Firstly, Dustin is unlikely to be able to hold out all five rounds with Habib, and secondly, the Russians themselves are not profitable to stretch this battle for all 25 minutes. The hardest blow makes Porrier dangerous at any moment of the match, and Nurmagomedov still cannot boast of outstanding stand-up work. If at one moment he decides to box with his opponent, then he may well run into a weighty overhand performed by an American.

In addition, Porrier is a fairly uncompromising athlete and is not used to giving the fate of the battle to the arbitrators. During his career, he suffered five defeats and only two on points. In 2010, he lost to Danny Castillo at the World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) 50 tournament, and three years later he could not cope with the then elite UFC featherweight Kab Swanson.

Porrier's victory ahead of schedule

In anticipation of the battle, the only real chance for the American to win is an early stop. Dustin simply does not have the necessary qualities to spend with Habib all five rounds and gain the upper hand in most of them. During his career, Nurmagomedov met with the masters of Brazilian jiu-jitsu (Rafael Dus Anjus, Gleason Tibau) and with first-class drummers (Conor McGregor, Edson Barbosa), but none of them could take a round from him. The first did not have the power to compete with him in the fight, and the second - the ability to avoid takedowns (transfers to the ground) from the Russian side.

Dustin, however, was never famous for his defense against leg passes (69%), and therefore runs the risk of becoming easy prey for Nurmagomedov. Consequently, he can only maximize the moments when he wants to exercise in boxing. Given the recent battles, he gives such chances more than enough. You can recall the fights with Michael Johnson, Al Yakvinta and the same McGregor, who not only had the opportunity to beat the champion in an upright position, but also succeeded quite well in this.

The battle with McGregor showed that Nurmagomedov significantly increased in the rack, but this aspect still remains his weak quality. Even after an exhausting wrestling session, the Irishman several times found the jaw of his opponent and could very well have created problems for this, if not for a two-year downtime. Conor seemed unprepared for a full battle, which was the reason for his unconditional surrender.

At the same time, Johnson was able to create an undefeated Russian significant difficulties. At the beginning of the rounds, he literally dominated Nurmagomedov and even shocked him, but he quickly got the hang of it and transferred the match to canvas.

Porrier needs to take Johnson’s experience into service and act extremely actively at the start of five minutes, trying as long as possible to avoid being transferred to the ground. In this case, he will have time to use his boxing skills and get on Nurmagomedov with his strong right.

It is worth noting that during his career, Dustin won six times with painful and suffocating tricks, but it will be very difficult for him to repeat this in the main event of UFC 242. This is largely because he won only at the dawn of his performances in MMA, and the only the famous “victim” is the same Holloway. True, this success is dated February 2012.