“Earthquake-related deaths” are those who die due to deterioration in physical condition due to evacuation after the earthquake.
Experts have calculated the number of deaths in the event of a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, and have newly found that in the worst case, 76,000 people may die.
There is no specific number of people in the national government's damage estimate, and experts point out that "it is necessary for society as a whole to work on countermeasures, considering the possibility of large casualties."
"Earthquake-related death" 3789 people in the Great East Japan Earthquake (as of the end of March last year)
After a major earthquake, "earthquake-related deaths", which die due to the deterioration of the living environment and stress, have been one after another in past earthquakes, such as the Great East Japan Earthquake 12 years ago, which had 3,789 people as of the end of March last year.
On the other hand, the government assumes that 323,000 people will die in the worst case when a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake occurs, but "earthquake-related deaths" are not included in this figure.
How big will 'earthquake-related deaths' be?
Professor Yoshihiro Okumura of Kansai University, who specializes in analyzing disaster cases, made the first trial calculation based on the relationship between the number of people who evacuated during past disasters and the number of related deaths.
As a result, it turned out that in the worst case, it could reach 76,000 people.
The result is about 20 times that of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
This estimate was made based on the assumption that approximately 9.5 million people were evacuated nationwide.
Professor Okumura estimates that a large number of people will die, and that infrastructure will be damaged in a wide area, resulting in prolonged power outages and water outages. I think that the condition is a big factor.
On top of that, he said, ``The causes of related deaths are diverse, and they cannot be reduced unless the environment surrounding each individual is changed. There is."
What did you see in the flowchart analysis?
In addition to the Great East Japan Earthquake,
Professor Yoshihiro Okumura of Kansai University
conducted a detailed analysis of related deaths that occurred in
the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake
, the 2004 Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu Earthquake
, and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake .
For example, when we analyzed the records of 109 people in Kesennuma City, Miyagi Prefecture who were recognized as having "earthquake-related deaths" after the Great East Japan Earthquake, more than 70% of the deaths were caused by "respiratory diseases" such as pneumonia and heart failure. In "circulatory system diseases" such as, the factors were intricately intertwined.
We collected these cases and created a "flow chart" that visualizes the causes of death and indirect factors that lead to death.
As a result, it became clear that the poor environment of evacuation life may have led to related deaths.
If the toilet is dirty...
One of them is the toilet.
For example, when water runs out due to a water outage, flush toilets become unusable and fall into a "poor toilet environment."
Then, if people do not want to go to the toilet, they will "reduce the frequency of excretion", so some people will start to refrain from drinking water, causing "dehydration".
As a result, "the number of bacteria in the mouth increases", which causes "aspiration pneumonia" and some people die.
“Unbalanced diet” and “sleeping small fish” are also risks
▽ "Unbalanced diet" is also one of the factors.
The number of people with “unbalanced nutrition” and “high blood pressure” will increase, which will easily lead to “circulatory system disease”.
▽ In addition, "sleep" at the evacuation shelter is also a factor.
Sleeping on the floor causes a lot of “stress” and leads to “lack of sleep”.
As a result, some people have “decreased physical strength and immunity” and cause “respiratory diseases”.
In addition, various conditions such as ``suspension of medical functions and nursing care services'', ``fear of earthquakes'', and ``decreased motivation'' have led to related deaths.
Professor Okumura hopes to analyze these factors in more detail in the future and utilize them in countermeasures.
Toilet, kitchen, bed "TKB" is the key
He points out that doctors and experts are necessary to prevent disaster-related deaths.
It stands for "toilet, kitchen, bed".
▽ "Toilet" avoid dirty toilets and make them clean
▽ "Kitchen" avoid cold and nutritious meals and provide warm meals
▽ "Bed" avoid sleeping on the floor and go to bed It means to prepare the environment.
Of these, the introduction of cardboard beds to evacuation centers is becoming more widespread in disasters around the world.
Not enough cardboard?
The secret is "onion farmer"
One of these municipalities is Minamiawaji City, Hyogo Prefecture.
If a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake occurs, it is expected that there will be a violent shaking with a maximum seismic intensity of 7 and a large tsunami exceeding 8 meters.
The city stockpiles about 500 cots and cardboard beds in warehouses in the city, and has an agreement to receive cardboard beds from manufacturers if there are not enough.
However, it is estimated that up to 9,000 people will be evacuated in the event of a Nankai Trough earthquake.
Therefore, the city turned its attention to the cooperation of farmers who produce onions, a specialty of Awaji Island.
Agricultural cooperatives in the city have 600,000 cases and 200,000 pieces of cardboard for shipping vegetables, and they are considering making an impromptu bed using these cases and cardboard. increase.
Saeki Oki, director of the crisis management section of Minamiawaji City, said, "The city is aging, so we are working to create a better environment so that people will not lose their lives while evacuating. We will stockpile beds for all evacuees. It is difficult to do so in terms of space, so we would like to proceed with countermeasures by making effective use of existing resources."
Professor Okumura "Changing the environment surrounding each person"
Professor Yoshihiro Okumura of Kansai University points out that measures taken by governments and medical personnel alone are not enough to reduce related deaths, and that it is necessary for society as a whole to advance measures with the cooperation of companies and residents. increase.
Professor Okumura said, ``Related deaths are not only a matter of what kind of medical measures are necessary for those who are unwell, but it is difficult to drastically reduce the number of deaths fundamentally unless the environment surrounding each person is changed. It is important that as many people as possible, as many companies as possible, and as many stakeholders as possible recognize that there is a possibility that this may occur, and that they take measures that they can take from their respective positions."