Can we cover the huge decontamination cost? TEPCO stock price does not approach the target level

In the 11 days and 10 years since the accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, there remains a major issue regarding the huge cost of decontamination to remove radioactive substances.

Country, by selling after acquired Tokyo Electric Power Company of the shares of the accident issued a profit of 4 trillion yen, but our policy is to cover the cost of decontamination, TEPCO's share price prospect of realization does not come close to the level of the target It's not good.

The national government needs a total of 21.5 trillion yen for decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, compensation for accidents, and decontamination.

Of this amount, the total cost of decontamination and disposal of contaminated waste is estimated to be 4 trillion yen, and the national government borrowed and spent this cost from financial institutions, and TEPCO acquired in 2012 for repayment. I will use the profits I get from selling my shares.

According to the Board of Audit, in order to make a profit of 4 trillion yen, it is necessary to sell the shares acquired for an average of 300 yen and 1 trillion yen for an average of 1500 yen and 5 trillion yen, but the stock price of TEPCO has been at even 300 yen this month, the prospect of realization does not have standing.

In addition, when stocks are generally sold in large numbers, the balance between supply and demand in the market is lost and stock prices are likely to fall.

TEPCO says that it is necessary to raise the market capitalization, which indicates the value of a company, to 7.5 trillion yen, which is more than 10 times the current value, in order to realize a stock price of 1500 yen even if the number of shares traded in the market increases. is.

There are high hurdles to raising the stock price and market capitalization to a level that can cover the cost of decontamination while securing huge costs such as decommissioning and compensation for damages, and it is a big issue in the 10 years since the accident occurred. It has become.

Reconstruction Minister Hirasawa "If there is a shortage, discuss and consider"

The policy of recovering the decontamination cost of 4 trillion yen from the gain on the sale of TEPCO's shares is stipulated in the "Basic Guidelines for Accelerating Fukushima Reconstruction from Nuclear Disasters" decided by the Cabinet in December 2016.

Regarding the current situation where stock prices are not approaching the target, Reconstruction Minister Hirasawa said in an interview last month, "We will discuss and consider what to do if the gain on the sale of TEPCO's shares is insufficient, but more than that. That hasn't been decided yet. I'll consider it at that time, but I'd like to consider it in advance so that it doesn't happen. "

On top of that, "If the stock price does not rise, it will be very difficult. We must ask TEPCO to make major management reform efforts. I think that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will strongly instruct TEPCO, but we also firmly back up. I will do it. "

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry "Never impossible"

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said, "Achieving the required stock price and market capitalization is not an easy goal, but we believe that it is not impossible as we sit down and proceed with management reforms. I would like TEPCO to continue to carry out drastic management reforms and significant productivity improvements. "

Stock Expert "Not an Easy Goal"

Regarding the national policy of recovering decontamination costs from the gain on the sale of TEPCO's shares, Toshinori Ito, an analyst familiar with the electric power industry, said, "It is quite possible for TEPCO to make self-help efforts such as cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and business diversification. It can be evaluated that it is doing, but the business performance has not returned to the level before the earthquake and the stock price has not risen. "

If all of TEPCO's shares acquired by the government are sold, the number of TEPCO's shares in the stock market will at least triple, resulting in "diluted shares" that will upset the balance between supply and demand, resulting in stock prices. It means that it will be easier to lower.

Analyst Ito said, "In order to achieve the target of stock price of 1500 yen or more, we have to raise it to more than ten times the current market capitalization of stocks that represent the value of a company. TEPCO is for the reconstruction of Fukushima. In addition, we must continue to provide funds, which is not an easy goal to achieve. "

What is "New Comprehensive Special Business Plan"?

In 2017, the "Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Support Organization" and the "New Comprehensive Special Business Plan" formulated by TEPCO aim to increase corporate value equivalent to a gain of 4 trillion yen on the sale of shares to cover decontamination costs. ".

As a measure for that, in addition to promoting cost reduction in the power transmission and distribution business, etc., the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant in Niigata Prefecture will be restarted to improve profitability, and further, mainly in the fields of power transmission and distribution and nuclear power generation. The company aims to reorganize and integrate by establishing joint ventures with other electric power companies.

Through these efforts, TEPCO has set a goal of securing 500 billion yen annually for decommissioning and compensation, and then making a profit of 450 billion yen annually for the entire group from FY2027.

However, the profit level for the past few years has been about half of the target, and TEPCO commented, "Although we have not reached the target at present, we will continue to work diligently to achieve it."