Nankai Trough earthquake Tsunami probability of 3m or more Highest rank in a wide area January 24 17:03
For the first time, the probability that a region along the Nankai Trough will be hit by a tsunami within the next 30 years has been announced, and the probability of a tsunami having a height of 3 meters or more will be the highest in a wide area centered on Shikoku, Kinki and Tokai. % Or more. The Earthquake Research Committee says, "I want you to think that the probability of being hit by a tsunami is higher than the probability of being injured in a traffic accident, and be prepared for it."
The government's Earthquake Investigation Commission has determined the probability of a coastal municipality being hit by a tsunami for magnitude 8 to 9 class earthquakes along the Nankai Trough with a 70% to 80% probability of occurring within the next 30 years. Calculated and published for the first time.
The height of the tsunami is divided into three levels. Of these, the probability of a tsunami of 3 meters or more, which is said to be starting to wash out houses, is the highest in 71 municipalities, mainly in Shikoku, Kinki and Tokai. "26% or more" of the rank.
In addition, the probability of being hit by a tsunami that is 10 meters or more is high at "6% or more and less than 26%" in 21 cities and towns, mainly in Kochi and Mie prefectures.
Nao Hirata, Chairman of the Earthquake Research Committee, said, "The probability of an injury in a traffic accident within 30 years is about 15%, and the probability of being hit by a tsunami longer than 3 meters is more than 26%. I want you to think that it is a high number and make preparations. "
In this estimation, the largest class earthquakes expected to exceed magnitude 9 have been excluded from the study because the frequency of occurrence is not known in detail.
Target earthquake and probability
Regarding the Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake, the government's Central Disaster Prevention Council calls the `` largest possible class '' earthquake a magnitude 9.1, and the tsunami exceeds a maximum height of 30 meters in Kochi Prefecture, Shizuoka Prefecture, and part of the Izu Islands We announce that assumption.
On the other hand, in this estimation, the largest class of large earthquakes were excluded because they could not be calculated because the frequency of occurrence was not known in detail, and earthquakes of magnitude 8 to 9 that repeatedly occurred at intervals of 100 to 200 years were considered. did.
Estimates show the probability of being hit by a tsunami within 30 years for every 352 municipalities in 24 prefectures from Fukushima to Kagoshima,
The height of the tsunami is three stages of $ 3m or more, $ 5m or more $ 10m or more,
The probabilities are divided into three ranks: $ 26% or more, $ 6% or more and less than 26%, or less than $ 6%.
Tsunami with a height of 3 meters or more, which is said to be starting to destroy or destroy houses, is the highest "over 26%" in 71 municipalities, including Izu Islands and Kyushu, mainly in Shikoku, Kinki, Tokai .
In addition, the tsunami of 5 meters or more, where the loss of houses rapidly increases, is "over 26%" in 29 municipalities, mainly in Shikoku, Kinki and Tokai.
Furthermore, tsunamis of 10 meters or more account for 6% or more and less than 26% in 21 cities and towns in Aichi, Tokushima, Wakayama, and Shizuoka prefectures, mainly in Kochi and Mie prefectures.
Regarding the probability of "26% or more within 30 years", the Seismic Investigation Commission has said that it is not low compared to the risk of being damaged by other disasters, and although it can not be compared with the same rank, it is injured in a traffic accident within 30 years The 15% chance of doing a fire, the 1.1% chance of getting a fire, and the 0.33% chance of being hit by a typhoon are some of the things that I want them to refer to in order to understand the weight of the figures.