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Johnson victory not sure: Poll for poll in the UK: Labor catching up

2019-12-11T05:55:18.131Z

TIME ONLINE | News, backgrounds and debates



London (AP) - The general election in the UK could possibly be more exciting than last thought.

According to a large-scale poll by YouGov, published Tuesday night, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's conservatives' lead over the opposition Labor party has diminished.

At the end of November, a similar survey had yielded a majority of 68 MPs to the Conservatives, now the pollsters are only assuming a head start of 28 seats on the Tories before the other parties. The Conservatives would therefore come to 339 of 650 seats. Labor, however, improved by 20 seats to 231 seats.

The British elect a new parliament on Thursday. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes for a whopping majority to bring his Brexit agreement through Parliament and lead his country out of the European Union on 31 January.

But even a "hung parliament" - a distribution of seats that allows neither of the two major parties to form a government under its own power, can not be ruled out according to the survey. The survey, commissioned by The Times newspaper, surveyed more than 100,000 people over a seven-day period, including Tuesday. The results were then extrapolated to all constituencies in the United Kingdom except Northern Ireland according to local peculiarities in the population structure.

Johnson's Conservatives have consistently led ten-point nationwide polls to date in national polls. Both major parties have in the past few weeks again significantly to the detriment of the smaller parties, the distance between them remained the same. That seems to have changed primarily in recent days in favor of Labor. Reason for this are likely to be lending votes of voters of the Liberal Democrats. Should this move strengthen until Thursday, a majority for Johnson may be in jeopardy.

The British majority voting law knows only direct mandates. In Parliament, the candidates with the most votes in each of the 650 constituencies, regardless of how close their victory was. The votes for defeated candidates expire. This makes it very difficult to conclude from national survey results on the possible distribution of seats in parliament. In addition, the race between candidates of the Labor Party and the Conservatives in dozens of constituencies is very narrow.

Report in the Times (paid)

Survey results on the YouGov website

Source: zeit

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