North Korea's unusual launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and a short-range ballistic missile on the same day today (25th) is being analyzed as a repulsive armed demonstration in consideration of the Korea-US summit.
According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea fired one presumed ICBM ballistic missile at 6 a.m. from the Pyongyang Sunan Airfield area today, and then fired two short-range ballistic missiles at 5-minute intervals about 37 minutes later.
North Korea has fired multiple missiles of different types and ranges, such as short-range missiles and multiple rocket launchers (the North Korean name for multiple rockets) in the past, but this is the first time that it has also fired an ICBM.
The ICBM was aimed at the United States, and the two short-range ballistic missiles were aimed at South Korea and Japan, respectively, and it is analyzed that they were aimed at neutralizing the South Korean and US missile defenses.
The military authorities are known to presume that the ICBM missile is a new 'Hwasong-17' under development by North Korea, and the following two are KN-23's called 'North Korean version of Iskander'.
According to the detected specifications, the ICBM-estimated missile was detected with a flight range of about 360 km, an altitude of about 540 km, and a speed of Mach 8.9.
This is similar to the trajectory of the Hwasong-17 that was launched on February 25th and March 5th.
When launched at a normal angle, the Hwasong-17 model is estimated to have a maximum range of over 15,000 km, allowing it to cover the entire U.S. mainland as well as major continents such as Africa and Oceania within range.
The maximum range of the existing Hwasong-15 is known to be around 13,000 km.
In particular, the Hwasong-17 type exploded in mid-air at the initial stage of ascent on March 16, when it was the last and third launch just before, and considering the fact that the relaunch occurred after two months, the possibility of a retest launch after correcting the problems at the time is raised. It's possible.
In this case, the military is known to analyze that the combustion of the first stage propellant has been achieved to a certain level, and stage separation has also been performed normally.
However, while ignoring the fact of an “airborne explosion” in March, North Korea announced that it had succeeded in developing the Hwasong-17 after launching the existing ICBM, the Hwasong-15, shortly afterwards.
Accordingly, even if today's launch is publicly reported, the possibility of claiming that it is a 'reconnaissance satellite test' instead of an ICBM is raised.
It is also noteworthy that this is the first time that North Korea has even fired an ICBM.
Shin Jong-woo, an expert research fellow at the Korea Defense Security Forum, said, "It is the first time we have seen that the US and South Korea are being targeted at the same time."
Professor Jang Young-geun of Aviation University also said, "If the missile was to show something in terms of operation, etc., it would have chosen a different trajectory or a method of launching it at the same time." It was evaluated as having a strong 'political character' to oppose the strengthening of extended deterrence measures.
On the other hand, 2,
Among them, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said the second missile was lost from our detection assets at an altitude of about 20 km, which is a relatively low altitude.
'Disappeared' means that it disappeared from the detection radar, and it is known that the military puts weight on failure.
However, some argue that it is a short-range missile and that it may have flew at a low altitude, and that it is necessary to be cautious about the 'failure' rule.