The Dutch construction sector will miss out on billions in turnover in the coming years as a result of the nitrogen problem. Economists from ABN AMRO calculated that. They estimate the damage in the coming five years at 14 billion euros.
Many road projects in particular are uncertain due to the recent decision of the Council of State (RvS).
The highest general administrative court recently declared the Dutch nitrogen policy (PAS) invalid. That immediately ensured that various construction projects were delayed, or that a line went through as a whole.
Companies can only build if they have a nitrogen plan
The RvS nitrogen ruling states, among other things, that companies in the Netherlands may only build if they have a nitrogen plan.
Projects may only be started if it can be proven that nature in the area is not affected. That burden of proof is very difficult, because nitrogen is almost always released.
Builders miss out on 1 billion euros annually until 2023
It was previously known that dozens of projects in the field of agriculture, housing and infrastructure are likely to be blocked as a result of the issue.
According to ABN AMRO, at least 43 percent of all road projects are uncertain, together accounting for 9 billion euros in revenue.
In addition, builders will miss out on at least 1 billion euros a year up to and including 2023 because housing projects are being put at risk.
Infrastructure projects around Utrecht and Arnhem are affected by the PAS issue
ABN AMRO emphasizes that the Netherlands has 118 so-called Natura 2000 sites, a European network of protected nature areas. All projects near these areas are affected by the PAS issue.
According to the list that the RvS made available earlier, it concerns at least two large infrastructure projects. Firstly, the A27 / A12 project around Utrecht, whose route decision has since been canceled.
It is also about the A12 / A15 job at Arnhem. Together good for 2 billion euros.
Municipal and provincial projects also affected
ABN AMRO also points to an older list of projects from an annex to the Nature Protection Regulations that may be affected. According to the bank, this concerns ten infrastructure projects with a total value of 4.5 billion euros.
Municipal and provincial projects are also affected. The PAS issue poses additional problems for housing production since the construction sector is struggling with staff shortages and there is an acute shortage of housing.
The Zuidasdok A10 ring project is not included in the calculation. "But given the current state of affairs, it is not unlikely that the RvS ruling will also affect Zuidasdok," said ABN AMRO.
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