While Chancellor Angela Merkel is living the last months of her mandate - she will have led the German government for 16 years - her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is looking for a leader.
The CDU, meeting in virtual congress on January 15 and 16, will have to decide between the candidates.
The winner will then be well placed to become the leader of the German conservatives and run for chancellery in the parliamentary elections scheduled for September.
But nothing is guaranteed.
Three men clash: the centrist Armin Laschet, the very conservative Friedrich Merz and the foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen.
"We are facing an unprecedented situation. The chancellor is no longer a candidate," Jens Althoff, director of the Paris office of the Heinrich Böll foundation, explained on Friday on the France 24 antenna.
"It is quite rare among conservatives, but the result is quite open," he said.
Hélène Miard-Delacroix, professor at the Sorbonne, specialist in contemporary Germany, shares the same opinion.
"Even if Friedrich Merz stands out in the polls drawn up among members, it is not he who is the favorite of the delegates", she notes.
"You can't say in advance who's going to be the winner."
The result is in fact in the hands of the 1,001 CDU delegates and not those of all the activists.
It will be announced on Saturday during a congress organized entirely online, Covid-19 requires.
This election, already postponed several times due to the epidemic, follows the resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, long “runner-up” to Angela Merkel but dismissed for lack of being able to win.
Germany - CDU Congress: 3 candidates vying to lead the conservative party
08:58
"Global continuity"
At first glance, the three candidates present a fairly similar profile.
"All three are Catholics. All three are fathers of three children. All three come from the Westphalian region", notes Jens Althoff.
"There is a global continuity insofar as they are all three strongly European, Atlanticists and are part of the moderate branch of the CDU", also underlines Hélène Miard-Delacroix.
"But there is still a difference insofar as Friedrich Merz is more liberal-conservative in its economic dimension and as regards cultural values. With him, the party would have a more right-wing orientation."
Sworn enemy of the Chancellor since she ousted him from the presidency of the conservative group in the Bundestag in 2002, Friedrich Merz dreams of revenge.
Beaten by a hair by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in 2018, this dry businessman with an emaciated face mixes economic liberalism and tough positioning on immigration.
This former lawyer is in the lead in the polls among CDU supporters, but he also suffers from disabilities.
He does not exercise a mandate, and his verbal provocations as well as his highly paid duties with asset manager BlackRock also damage his image.
His opponent Armin Laschet, 59, has several strengths.
This moderate, former journalist with laughing eyes, is indeed walking in the footsteps of Angela Merkel, more popular than ever.
"He represents a kind of continuation of Angela Merkel's centrist politics. On the other hand, she was careful not to show too much support for him because Friedrich Merz could have said that he is the establishment candidate. ", Jens Althoff believes.
The third man, Norbert Röttgen, 55, is the perfect outsider.
Assuring not to be the man of a "camp", this expert in international relations promises to rejuvenate and feminize the party.
He is, like Friedrich Merz, a disappointed chancellor, who had brutally ousted him in 2012 from the Ministry of the Environment after an electoral debacle.
Even if he is not a candidate, a fourth man hangs over this congress: the popular Minister of Health, Jens Spahn.
"He is 60% of favorable opinions in the polls. Currently, he has given up the candidacy, but there has been an agreement between him and Laschet. They are joint candidacy saying that in case of victory, Laschet could remain president of the CDU and that Spahn would have the possibility of being a candidate for the chancellery ", explains Hélène Miard-Delacroix.
Promising on paper, this ticket did not produce the expected sparks.
To the point that the Minister of Health had to deny, without completely convincing, that he was aiming for the candidacy for the chancellery in place of Armin Laschet.
Markus Söder in ambush
The winner will in any case be in a good position to be the leader of the Conservatives in the legislative elections on September 26 and thus perhaps become the future chancellor.
But he will not yet have the guarantee because this choice is planned later and other contenders remain in ambush, including Markus Söder, member of the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU), sister party of the CDU.
The latter does not covet the leadership of Angela Merkel's party this week, but he could take on the role of candidate himself if the future CDU president is not a favorite in the race for the chancellery.
"In Germany, 44% of those polled say that they would see Söder at the head of the country, because there is in this 54-year-old man a certain kindness and a certain way of doing things", analyzes Armelle Charrier, international columnist for France 24. "We call him the chameleon and the kingmaker because he is the one who pulls the strings behind. (…) He was Minister of the Environment and Finance. He knows politics."
Germany - CDU Congress: after 15 years, Angela Merkel will step down in the autumn
04:28
After standing out with a protest speech at the CDU congress in 2019, Markus Söder joined forces with the Greens, the Union's next likely coalition partner, and presented himself as a strong manager of the Covid-19 pandemic during regular press conferences alongside the Chancellor.
So far, no German chancellor has emerged from the ranks of the CSU.
In the legislative elections of 1980 and 2002, the Union did present a candidate, but the ballot was won each time by the Social Democrats.
For the 2021 elections, Markus Söder could take advantage of the deep divisions between the three candidates for the CDU leadership.
For now, he has instead expressed his support for Armin Laschet, praising his experience and his ability to build coalitions.
In any case, the Bavarian leader wants to give the new leader of the CDU time to gain popularity.
He demanded that the Union not decide on its candidate for chancellery until after the regional elections in mid-March.
A poll conducted by Civey for Der Spiegel magazine late last month showed that if all Germans could vote, Norbert Röttgen, who presents himself as a modernizer, would be appointed CDU president while Markus Söder would be elected chancellor.
The summary of the week
France 24 invites you to come back to the news that marked the week
I subscribe
Take international news everywhere with you!
Download the France 24 application
google-play-badge_FR