What is the current state of possession of nuclear weapons in the world and nuclear disarmament?

The world's possession of nuclear weapons and the current state of nuclear disarmament are at 6:56 on October 24.

Behind the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is the strong dissatisfaction of countries without nuclear weapons that efforts to abolish nuclear weapons are not progressing at all.

Efforts for nuclear disarmament have been promoted based on the NPT = Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Treaty.

Fifty years ago, the NPT, which came into effect in 1970, recognized the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China as nuclear-weapon states, mandating negotiations on nuclear disarmament, while banning the possession and proliferation of nuclear weapons in other countries. It was.

However, the nuclear disarmament of the United States and Russia, which owns 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, has not progressed, and India and Pakistan, which have not participated in the NPT, have launched nuclear tests one after another, and North Korea has also declared withdrawal from the treaty and accelerated nuclear weapons development. I am letting you.

Furthermore, the "CTBT = Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty", which bans all nuclear tests, is not expected to be ratified in the United States, India, Pakistan, etc., and has not yet come into effect more than 20 years after its adoption in 1996.

For this reason, since 2013, seven years ago, Norway, Mexico, and Austria, which do not have nuclear weapons, have held a series of international conferences separate from the NPT and the United Nations, and have stimulated discussions that nuclear weapons should be legally banned. I did.

The conflict between nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states has intensified, and at the NPT Review Conference in the spring of 2015, nuclear-weapon states insisted on gradual nuclear disarmament against countries seeking a legal ban on nuclear weapons, and the world's nuclear disarmament It has become impossible to adopt the agreement document that determines the direction.

In 2016, more than 50 countries, including Austria and Mexico, submitted a resolution to the UN General Assembly calling for the start of negotiations on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which was adopted by a majority of 113 countries.

At this time, while Japan appealed for the abolition of nuclear weapons as the only country exposed to the war, it turned against it with nuclear-weapon states such as the United States, saying that "nuclear disarmament should proceed step by step with nuclear-weapon states," and was surprised at home and abroad. It was.

After that, a negotiation meeting for the enactment of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons began in March 2017 and was adopted in July in favor of 122 countries and regions, but it depends on the nuclear deterrence of the United States in addition to the nuclear-weapon states. Japan and most members of the NATO-North Atlantic Treaty Organization did not participate in the negotiations.

On the other hand, the international NGO ICAN = International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, which has been promoting the establishment of the treaty from the beginning, won the Nobel Peace Prize this year for contributing to the realization of the treaty by directly working with each country.

On the other hand, the international NGO ICAN = International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, which has been promoting the establishment of the treaty from the beginning, won the Nobel Peace Prize this year for contributing to the realization of the treaty by directly working with each country.

The status of possession of nuclear weapons around the world

According to the latest report released in June by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a Swedish research institute that analyzes the world's military situation, the total number of nuclear warheads in the world held by each country is 1 It is estimated to be 13,400 as of the month.

It has decreased by 465 from the estimated 13,865 in the previous year's survey, citing the US and Russia as they proceeded with the dismantling of nuclear warheads.

By country, Russia had 6375 shots, a decrease of 125 shots from 6500 shots in the previous year, and the United States had 5800 shots, a decrease of 385 shots from 6185 shots in the previous year, but the total of the two countries was 12,175 shots, more than 90% of the total. Occupies.

The third-largest possession country after the two countries is estimated to be 320 in China, an increase of 30 from 290 in the previous year, and the report points out that "it is in the midst of modernization of nuclear weapons."

The fourth France has 290 shots, 10 less than the previous year, and it is believed that China has overtaken France.

The fifth is Britain's 215, the sixth is Pakistan's 160, the seventh is India's 150, and the eighth is Israel's 90.

We also analyze that North Korea may have 30 to 40 shots, an increase of about 10 shots from the previous year.

On the other hand, the report points out that the United States and Russia are modernizing nuclear warheads, missiles, facilities, etc., expanding the role of nuclear weapons, and going against the trend of nuclear disarmament after the Cold War.

Furthermore, last year, one of the US-Russia nuclear disarmament treaties expired, and the arms control of nuclear weapons fell into a critical situation, and geopolitical tensions are increasing, which is causing a sense of caution.

Nuclear weapons "spread" to the world The US-Russia nuclear disarmament framework is in danger of collapse

It has been 11 years since former US President Barack Obama made a speech aiming for a "world without nuclear weapons."

There are still more than 13,000 nuclear warheads in the world, and it is estimated that more than 90% of them are owned by two nuclear powers, the United States and Russia.

Both countries have

promoted nuclear disarmament based on two treaties

, the

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the

START = Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, but this framework is now on the verge of collapse.

The INF = Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty expired last August after the Trump administration announced that it would be abolished because of Russia's nuclear missile development.

In addition, START, which has restricted strategic nuclear weapons such as ICBM, will expire in February next year (2021) with the new START of the successor treaty that was taken over in 2010, 10 years ago, but both the United States and Russia have new nuclear weapons. The situation continues to be unpredictable due to conflicts over such issues.

While the US and Russia talked about nuclear disarmament, China has rapidly developed its nuclear force.

The Chinese government has not disclosed the number of nuclear weapons it possesses, but according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, which analyzes the world's military situation, the number of nuclear warheads has increased from 290 last year to 320. , Is analyzed to be the third largest in the world after Russia and the United States.

China, which is not bound by the US-Russia nuclear disarmament treaty, is strongly concerned about strengthening its nuclear force, such as the development of ICBM = intercontinental ballistic missiles that reach the Americas and intermediate-range missiles that can reach Japan and Taiwan. ..

The proliferation of nuclear weapons is also serious, and in addition to the five countries of the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China, which are permitted by the NPT = Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, three countries, India, Pakistan, and Israel, already possess nuclear weapons. In addition to appearing to be doing so, North Korea is also accelerating development.

For this reason, there is a deep-rooted voice among non-nuclear-weapon states that do not have nuclear weapons that the nuclear disarmament treaty based on the United States and Russia is not enough. The need for a framework has also been pointed out.