Is Johnson really losing the support of his majority?

Boris Johnson has been the British Prime Minister since the summer of 2019. -

• Less than a year after his triumphant victory in the legislative elections of December 2019, Boris Johnson seems to be already challenged for his management of the health crisis, including within his own party.

• Some already see in his Minister of Finance, Rishi Sunak, a potential successor: brilliant, square, dynamic, young.

  Boris Johnson looks pale next to it.

• However, BoJo's leadership does not appear to be in immediate danger.

  The economic consequences of a no deal with the European Union and Scotland's independence tendencies are far more dangerous subjects for him, but this is not the news at the moment.

Has BoJo lost his mojo?

Less than a year after a triumphant victory in the legislative elections last December, Boris Johnson, the British Conservative Prime Minister, has already been caught up by the Labor Party in the polls.

In some, Labor is even ahead of the Conservatives.

Worse yet: it seems that the conservative base has less and less confidence in Boris Johnson.

Hard for the one who gave back to the British right a parliamentary majority that it had not had since the Thatcher years.

But now, a global pandemic has passed through there.

It is an understatement to say that Boris Johnson gave an impression of confusion in his management of Covid-19.

"A newspaper had fun counting how much there had been a turnaround in the government's strategy since June: it counted 12 or 13," recalls Olivier de France, research director at Iris, interviewed by

.

We are not talking about approximate management but rather about a 180-degree turnaround.

"For him, this crisis reveals the limits of a populist management of a country:" You can hold any speech, there, the virus does not care.

"

Restrictions on freedoms not in the DNA of the conservatives and which disturb them

The distrust of Boris Johnson, now palpable in popularity surveys, is expressed, and this is new, even in the conservative ranks.

“There is discontent, it's true, about the management of the Covid, remarks Assa Sameke-Roman, French journalist based in Glasgow, interviewed by

.

It has been bubbling for a while but now, since new restrictions were imposed in the north of the country, it has become clearer.

The Conservative Party is a liberal party which defends freedoms.

And for many members, that their party imposes these kinds of rules is unbearable.

They think it is against nature, against the DNA of the party.

"

So, as is often the case when the ruling party in London is in trouble, some are looking to see if the grass is greener elsewhere.

And why not on the side of the flowerbeds at 11 Downing Street, just next to 10, the offices of the Prime Minister, at the Minister of Finance, Rishi Sunak.

Assa Sameke-Roman describes it as “very popular, square, polished, it presents well.

The partial unemployment system he set up saved a lot of people and businesses.

Quite a few observers think that without him the Conservative Party would be even worse.

He is young, super-dynamic, ultra-liberal, he is seen as creative, innovative.

The Conservatives love it!

He dusted off the image of the party, because even if he came from a very privileged background, with no money problem, he was part of a minority (his family is Indian).

Besides Boris Johnson passes for a clown ”.

Structural support for Johnson

But Sunak plays her loyal.

And for Olivier de France, these upsets must be put into perspective: “It is an easy solution to want to change prime minister.

Of course there are noises, there is a little music, but I think that we tend to underestimate in France the structural support that Boris Johnson has in the Conservative Party and in the electorate.

Quite simply because he is the one who kept the promise to make Brexit happen, for better or worse.

And if you look closely, it is not just in the United Kingdom that the management of the health crisis is unpopular.

"

Olivier from France is betting that the tenant of 10 Downing Street will be the same in three years.

"With the approach of the next elections the question will perhaps be posed more seriously ..." Johnson has for him a large majority: in December 2019 he elected 39 deputies more than necessary to have the absolute majority.

We are absolutely not in the situation of Theresa May, who almost every morning could lose any vote in the Commons.

“Many deputies owe their election to Boris Johnson,” recalls Assa Sameke-Roman.

Brexit mezzo voce

A fall therefore does not seem at all to be on the program for the weeks to come, even though a part of his majority finds that the Prime Minister is abusing the prerogatives of parliament, by governing by decree on the pandemic.

Lately, it has been believed that the law which partially reverts to the UK's exit agreement from the European Union could fracture the party.

Theresa May, herself, still a Member of Parliament, had spoken to express all her fear of discrediting the word of London in its future international trade negotiations.

Finally, the law is largely passed, with some accommodation and only a few abstentions on the majority's banns.

Brexit, whose current negotiations on the future relationship with the European Union seem to be deadlocked, has been put on the back burner because of the pandemic.

Currently, it is more of a potential time bomb.

For example, if a “no deal” with Brussels were to result, within a few months, by additional economic difficulties for a country already shaken by the health crisis.

The north scottish wind

Another potential time bomb for Boris Johnson's leadership: Scotland.

"In recent weeks, we have had the impression that the Scottish government of Nicola Sturgeon has announced measures against Covid-19 and that the government of London is only following them by improvising a few days later", describes the French journalist installed in Scotland, Assa Sameke-Roman.

Enough to give a little more credibility to the independence project of the Scottish Prime Minister: "This is one of her arguments to say that the United Kingdom no longer works", adds the journalist.

In May, legislative elections are due north of Hadrian's Wall.

The current Scottish National Party (SNP) has the wind in its sails in the polls, as is the option of independence.

Boris Johnson does not want to hear about a second independence referendum, however, only six years after that of 2014, where the yes won with 55% of the vote.

“Sturgeon can't force Johnson.

But the SNP is campaigning on the fact that every vote for it will be a vote for a new independence referendum, ”explains Assa Sameke-Roman.

And already, Scottish conservatives are explaining that if the SNP has more than 50% of the vote in May - a credible hypothesis although not certain - Boris Johnson's position will become untenable, because it is undemocratic.

So the horizon, certainly not rosy but not unplayable for BoJo, could really darken.

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