The world has witnessed diseases that cause more damage than the effects of the Corona virus. Therefore, we must learn to live with this pandemic. The questions revolve around the efficacy of social distancing, which throws us into a swirl of choices about continuing our lives normally or sheltering as much as possible from this virus in the hope that this black cloud will disappear someday.
In a report published by the British Telegraph newspaper, writer Jonathan Sumption says that, in returning to memory, the British government rushed to impose a general lockdown last March after a report by Professor Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College.
The professor predicted the worst-case scenario, which would be the death of 510,000 people. But he raised an important point that is often overlooked, which is that the closure will not save a large number of lives unless it continues until a vaccine is discovered, which "may take 18 months or more." Otherwise, the virus will spread again in a way that may be worse than ever.
Professor Ferguson's team explained this point that compulsory isolation policies would only postpone infections until the post-isolation period, delaying rather than limiting peak rates or the overall infection rate. This is confirmed by the high number of current infections in the countries that lifted the lockdown, such as Spain, Germany, Japan and Hong Kong, although they applied the closure more strictly.
Close handling options
The author explained that three options were available regarding dealing with the closure:
1- It is not applied at all.
2- Imposing it for an indefinite period of time, and stopping life in the country in general, which will be more expensive than you can imagine.
3- The option adopted by most governments was to impose a long-term lockdown that would enable sufficient beds to be available in the intensive care rooms.
It is noteworthy that the British government lifted the closure last June, that is, six to eight weeks after the disappearance of any reasonable justification for its continuation.
Country experiences
The author did not address the issue of whether the closure was lifted too early or too late, because the most important question - according to him - now is what will happen next. After that, the government confined itself to imposing social distancing to keep the main breeding number less than one without the need for a complete closure.
Although the opinions of some epidemiologists are conflicting regarding this decision, and even if the position taken by the British government was sound, there are vague points that must be addressed. First, if imposing social distancing was sufficient to keep the primary reproductive number of infection less than one, then the distancing could have been imposed since the previous March rather than imposing a lockdown.
This is what Sweden has done, which has recorded far fewer deaths than the United Kingdom. Its hospitals were not overcrowded, and its schools had not closed. The expected damage to its economy is nearly half the damage to the UK economy. But the question that imposes itself is: How will we get out of this crisis?
Effects of social distancing
The author explains the consequences for the world if social distancing is implemented indefinitely and until a vaccine is discovered. Physical proximity to others is an integral part of our culture, and it is a fundamental determinant of our humanity. The long conversations we have, the friendship and love that bind us together, and most educational activities require physical proximity.
The transportation infrastructure and the buildings in which we work, play and eat also depend on being close to each other. With imposition of social distancing, physical cooperation becomes impossible.
The social dimension of work may disappear, crowds will disperse, weddings will be canceled, in addition to the orchestra and theater, and the masses will be absent from sport activities. In short, there will be no group activities, just dismal isolation in front of the electronic screen. The virus has robbed us of our freedom. Should it rob us of our humanity as well?
Living with Corona
Masks are a secondary issue, as they are uncomfortable and rob us of our personal character. Rather, they oppose the nature of society by interacting visually and showing the division of faces. The painful truth is evident, whether by wearing masks or removing them, as we will have to live with Corona despite our noses until an effective vaccine is found. We may find ourselves facing other dangers that outweigh this pandemic.
The author describes this fact as shocking, as living in Europe has always been associated with a false sense of security. In the past two decades, the world has suffered from the Coronavirus, associated with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and SARS. Before that, the world witnessed Hong Kong flu and epidemic non-respiratory diseases such as HIV (AIDS), Ebola and Zika. All of them recorded higher deaths from Corona. But these diseases did not sweep Europe.
It is estimated that a new strain of influenza could cause between 50,000 and 750,000 deaths in the United Kingdom, and diseases originating from animals pose an increasing threat with an unpredictable impact.
The risk of seasonal influenza is more deadly than Corona virus for people under the age of 50, and in the vast majority of cases, symptoms are mild or absent. Our ancestors lived with far worse epidemic diseases. And in other parts of the world, TB is still more deadly than the Coronavirus.
We all need to conduct our personal risk assessment according to age, health status and the type of activities we participate in. For some people, social distancing will remain a reasonable measure and the rest will have to respect their choice, but we cannot continue escaping, as some of us will prefer to lead a normal life.