The Israeli army continues its preparations for the scenario of implementing the annexation plan, announced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while positions varied within the government coalition regarding the timing and size of the annexation, and the security establishment expressed its fear of unexpected estimates of the implications of the annexation with Jordan and the Palestinian side.
Amid varying Israeli positions, the Zionist parties unanimously agree on the necessity of annexing the Jordan Valley and settlements, but they differ in the mechanisms. The Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing to start implementing the annexation plan on July 1, while his partner in the government coalition, the Blue and White party headed by Defense Minister Benny Gantz, stresses the necessity of implementing this according to what is stipulated in what is known as the American peace plan for the East. Middle.
In light of the administration of President Donald Trump's reservations about any Israeli unilateral move, an American delegation headed by Avi Berkovitch, President Trump's envoy in Tel Aviv, landed negotiations with Netanyahu and Gantz on a plan to annex areas of the West Bank to Israeli sovereignty, knowing that the White House talks in the presence of Ambassador David Friedman Israel did not give the green light to implement the annexation plan.
Fourth elections
Amid the Jordanian and Palestinian positions rejecting annexation, and the opposition expressed by the European Union, and in light of the divergent positions within the government on the issue of annexation; Netanyahu is waving to go to a fourth election, knowing that he does not need Gantz and his party to pass the annexation law in the Knesset.
But the trap that surrounds Netanyahu - who is looking for a lifeline to export his internal crises due to corruption files and his trial - is contained within Article 28 of the coalition agreement between the Likud and "Blue and White", which states that Netanyahu and Gantz will work in full agreement and coordination with the United States in relation to With Trump's plan, including annexation maps that should be presented to the Americans, and the adoption of international dialogue and understanding on this issue.
Amid differences and divergences in positions, Tel Aviv is preparing for any steps that the Palestinian Authority may take in the Security Council, this time on the basis of Chapter VII of the United Nations Agreement on Threats to Peace, and allowing sanctions against the aggressor (Israeli occupation) and work to confront and neutralize it, besides that The Palestinian Authority initiates demonstrations, protests and confrontations with the Israeli army in the West Bank.
Sovereignty game
In anticipation of any practical action to implement the annexation plan, even if partially, the Jerusalem Jerusalem Center for the Study of Strategies and Security conducted a seminar entitled "The Game of Sovereignty" that simulates the implementation of the annexation and its repercussions on Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, and expected field developments.
It was clear from the "game of sovereignty" the complexity of the expected decision, its effects and repercussions, which include the world and the region, where everything was not clear through simulations that relied on facts and facts on the ground, as many questions and issues remained pending, open and without answers.
The perception stems from the Netanyahu-Gantz government’s decision to apply sovereignty over parts of the West Bank, and the results of this dramatic move are immediately apparent. However, the repercussions and long-term effects are still vague and unknown, as this step will bring economic, international and security prices to Israel.
The symposium concluded that the initial reactions will be harsh and will center around the implementation of individual operations in the West Bank against settlers and the army, and the imposition of economic sanctions on Israel by the European Union. However, it appears that Israel will be able to contain that.
Two-state solution
The head of the Jerusalem Center, Professor Ephraim Inbar, believes that in the first stage, the government may move to implement Israeli law on the Jordan Valley and on strategic and important security areas in the Jerusalem area, the settlement blocs of Ma'aleh Adumim, Gush Etzion, and the settlement of Ariel, which is The areas that represent the settlement project in the West Bank and have a national consensus in Israel.
To ensure the White House supports the Israeli moves, the director of the Jerusalem Center advises the national unity government headed by Netanyahu to accept the Trump plan with all its provisions, including the provision that stipulates the need to return to negotiations with the Palestinian Authority and establish a Palestinian state.
According to Anbar, the US peace plan for the Middle East is the most realistic way to move towards a two-state solution, as a practical alternative to the current deadlock in negotiations between the Israeli and Palestinian sides, and hence the fundamental importance here laying the foundations for the gradual implementation of the so-called "deal of the century".
To contain any regional repercussions, Anbar believes that the Israeli government should initiate secret negotiations and behind-the-scenes consultations with all matters relating to annexation, moving the Trump plan and intensifying dialogue with Gulf countries, provided that the Israeli government is on standby for the tough decisions, steps and measures that the European scene may witness, And enlist support for friendly European countries, who have shared strategic interests in the Middle East.
Progressive annexation
For his part, the military analyst for the newspaper "Haaretz" Amos Harel estimated that Netanyahu is heading for a "symbolic annexation" that will not exceed parts of the settlement blocs in the West Bank and the settlement bloc "Maale Adumim" adjacent to Jerusalem, which are the areas rooted in the Israeli consciousness and have a Zionist consensus.
The military analyst explained that during his meetings with the settler leaders, Netanyahu discussed with them the idea of gradual annexation in two phases, provided that the first stage would be to annex 30% of the West Bank area, and in the second stage annexation of the Jordan Valley, but the settler leaders rejected this idea, and questioned the sincerity of Netanyahu and the possibility of fulfilling His promise to include a second in the future.
In light of the aggravation of the Israeli economic crisis, the presence of one million workers and employees in the circle of unemployment in light of the Corona pandemic, and the start of a second wave of the virus; It appears that Netanyahu - as Harel says - "began to prepare himself for a possible pretext at the same time to freeze the annexation, by accusing Gantz and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi."
But the military analyst questioned the seriousness of Netanyahu's threats to go to a fourth election because of the differences with the "blue-white" party over the annexation plan, pointing out that what matters to the Israeli voter at this stage is not annexation, but rather the Corona pandemic and its spread in the country, and the massive economic crisis that causes It contains the virus.
Strategic turn
In turn, the researcher at the "Begin-Sadat" Center for Israeli Strategic Studies, Major General Reserve Gershon Hacohen, believes that Netanyahu is in a cycle and the dilemma of applying sovereignty in the Jordan Valley, settlements and parts of the West Bank, which is the vortex that places Netanyahu in the strategic, central and most difficult juncture in the history of the State of Israel.
On the security side, Major General Reserve sees that there is a need for a practical and immediate clarification, first and foremost on the issue of control and control of major traffic routes in the West Bank and the Jordan Valley, as the Prime Minister promises that even in the implementation of the Trump plan, the Israeli army will remain responsible for security in Region; Therefore, the application of sovereignty - despite the dangers - is a historic opportunity for the Jewish people.
He believes that even the political and regional and European repercussions of the annexation step are no less than the security risks inherent in Israel's inability to maintain its temporary security presence in the Jordan Valley region.
Regarding the Jordanian threats, the Palestinian Authority, and Cairo's positions on annexation, Major General reserve, "Egypt and Jordan have used the peace treaty as a tool to deter Israel from achieving its security and political interests, while creating a dynamic of coexistence in peace for eighths. Today, Israel stands at a crossroads in the face of threats from leaders of the region Therefore, the independent Israeli decision to promote its sovereign interests is no less important than the declaration of independence. "