France: four indicators to orchestrate the pursuit of deconfinement

Text by: Nicolas Rocca Follow

As deconfinement will enter a new phase from June 2, the French government has announced that new indicators will make it possible to follow the evolution of the epidemic. Thresholds not to be exceeded have been set in order to eventually be able to make decisions accordingly. Incidence, reproduction rate, tests and resuscitation. RFI explains to you.

Publicity

In France, deconfinement is played out at the local level. Most regions will be able to fully open restaurants on June 2, but in the Ile de France for example, only terraces are allowed. Thus, the government pursues this logic, and has defined four criteria to differentiate each department and assign it a color (red, orange, green) and follow the evolution of the epidemic at the local level.

The incidence

The incidence rate or “epidemic pressure” corresponds to the number of infected per week per 100,000 inhabitants. During the announcements, on March 28 the incidence was 6.14 out of 100,000. Two thresholds are set, first that of vigilance at 10 and then the alert threshold at 50. This last option could push the authorities local health authorities to take measures similar to those known during confinement or during this first phase of deconfinement, such as limiting public transport or movement.

Reproduction rate

R or the effective reproduction rate represents the average number of people infected by a patient. If R is 1 it means that a sick person only infects another. When it is less than 1 it means that the epidemic is receding, when it is greater it means that the epidemic is starting again. According to the ministry's communication, on March 28, it was 0.77 in French territory, so 10 sick people only transmit the virus to 7.7 people. A figure which encourages optimism but which has increased since mid-May when it had fallen to 0.6.

This indicator has already been mentioned in the past, but without the government revealing the curve of this indicator. As with the incidence in Germany , the executive has focused its crisis management notably on this criterion.

Positive tests

This is the measurement of virological tests, which via a nasal sample determines whether a person is infected or not at an instant t. While it may have been around 20% during the epidemic phase, the Minister of Health says "that it is only 1.9%". A decrease which can be explained as much by the drop in virus transmission as by the (still limited) increase in testing capacity in France. All departments are in green except for Guyana which has a positivity rate of 10%

The rate of beds in intensive care

He is the one who surprises the least. From the beginning of the crisis, the rate of beds in intensive care is at the heart of the government's communication, it is certainly one of the most monitored indicators. Currently, the situation has improved significantly, the peak of 7,148 patients on April 6 is now far away. However, the executive has set a vigilance threshold between 40% and 60% and an alert threshold between 60% and 80% of occupation of resuscitation beds. This rate is calculated on a regional scale and two of them are not green: Île de France (orange) and Mayotte (red). On the other hand, the Grand-Est, where one of the first epidemic centers was located, seems on the right track, below the fateful level of 40%.

► Read also: Deconfinement in France: the restrictions largely relaxed

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