Westerners fear "Syrian-style scenario" in Libya

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The growing involvement of Turkey and Russia in Libya raises a fear: that of seeing this country switch to a Syrian-style scenario. Several Western officials have warned of such a risk. Like the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Yves Le Drian, or even Stéphan Townsend, the general commanding the American forces in Africa. What are the implications of such a scenario?

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It is a sharing of strategic, economic and influence interests between two major players who are already very present in Syria, and who are today in Libya. These are Russia and Turkey, which are trying to marginalize the other international and regional players who are involved in this very complicated dossier. 

These two countries had huge investments in Libya before 2011 and had always opposed a NATO intervention against Colonel Gaddafi. Both now seem determined to keep their interests already in place and above all seek to increase their political and military influence .

In their way of getting involved in Libya, they each put heavy weapons and mercenaries at stake . They thus hope to become, tomorrow, masters of peace as they are today masters of war. Several analysts are already imagining a national conference designed by the two countries for Libya in the same way as Astana for Syria.

Leaks since January indicate an agreement between Moscow and Ankara to share this country rich in hydrocarbons, and which allocates a large part of this wealth to Russia, which the Americans are trying to avoid by changing their rifle. shoulder and supporting the Government of National Union (GNA) after having supported Marshal Haftar.

Experts say the Russians will not pass up the opportunity to find themselves on the southern edges of Europe. Americans and Westerners fear that Russia will settle in Libya in the long term, which would hamper their interests in Africa and which would cause security concerns for the countries of southern Europe. In addition, a permanent presence of Russia in eastern Libya  certainly concerns the Americans , who sought to have a military base in Libya during Gaddafi's time, which they have always been denied.

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• Libya
• Turkey
• Russia

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