“Europe is interested in an agreement”: what are the prospects for the Open Skies Treaty after the US decision to withdraw from it

Russia will continue to comply with the provisions of the Open Skies Treaty (DON). This was reported in the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to NATO following an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council, which was convened in connection with the US decision to withdraw from the Don.

“The Russian side reaffirmed its intention to continue to implement the provisions of the Treaty, which has proved its functionality and relevance as one of the supporting structures of the arms control system and ensuring the predictability of military activity. Readiness is expressed for further dialogue - on a mutually respectful basis, and not in the language of ultimatums - in the interests of European and international security, ”the permanent mission website says.

Russian diplomats also announced the need to hold a special conference of the countries party to the treaty in order to determine its future fate.

“We now need to carefully analyze the situation taking shape after the US decision, based on military-political, legal and other aspects. All participants in the Don will have to do the same job scrupulously, clearly define their positions and declare them at a special conference, the convening of which will be required to assess the consequences and the order of the further functioning of this important multilateral regime. Its results will determine the fate of DON, ”the statement said.

On Friday, the foreign affairs agencies of 11 EU countries issued a joint statement in which they regretted the US announcement of the denunciation of the Open Skies Treaty. The document was supported by Belgium, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Finland, France, the Czech Republic and Sweden. At the same time, they noted that they share "concern about compliance with the provisions of the treaty by Russia."

“The Open Skies Treaty is an essential element of the confidence-building system created in recent decades with the aim of increasing the level of transparency and security in the Euro-Atlantic region. We will continue to implement the provisions of the Open Skies Treaty, which will undoubtedly increase the effectiveness of our system for controlling non-nuclear weapons and contribute to collective security, ”the joint communiqué of 11 European countries says.

The Russian Permanent Representative to NATO drew attention to this statement, calling it a “very important signal” and adding that withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty “would strike a blow at the system of military security and stability in Europe.”

• Aircraft surveillance aircraft Tu-214ON ("Open Sky")
• RIA News
• © Maxim Blinov

Russian diplomats also indicated that “in the two decades of the successful functioning of this multilateral document, there has not been a single case in which a participant declared his desire to leave the contractual field.”

“On the contrary, the effectiveness of the verification mechanism incorporated in it was noted for strengthening security in the OSCE area,” the statement said.

Recall that the Open Skies Treaty was signed in Helsinki on March 24, 1992. Today, its participants are 34 states, including the Russian Federation. The agreement establishes the practice of international observation flights to inspect the military infrastructure of the participating countries. On May 21, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Don, citing the fact that the Russian Federation allegedly violates its provisions. 

“A purely technical issue”

At the last meeting, the NATO leadership actually supported the US accusations against Russia of non-compliance with the DON.

“Over the years, Russia has introduced flight restrictions that are contrary to the agreement, including restrictions on flights over Kaliningrad and over Russian territory near its border with Georgia. The selective fulfillment by Russia of its obligations under the Open Skies Treaty weakens the role of this important agreement in ensuring the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic region, ”said Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg of the alliance.

Russia should “return to compliance with this treaty, which is the best way to preserve its advantages,” the Secretary General said. At the same time, NATO notes that the alliance continues to abide by the Don and firmly stands for maintaining international arms control.

However, as noted in the Russian permanent mission to NATO, in fact, the alliance adheres to a different course.

“Unfortunately, the facts do not confirm this, to put it mildly. This is a political decision, which is a continuation of the destructive line to the collapse of international agreements on arms control - scrapping the ABM Treaty, refusing to ratify the adapted Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces (ADOVSE), withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan on the Iranian Nuclear Program ( SVPD), the Intermediate-Range Missile Treaty (INF Treaty), and now also from the Don, ”Russian diplomats point out.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
• Reuters
• © Francois Lenoir

They also emphasized that Russia has repeatedly provided clarifications on the so-called violations within the framework of the Advisory Commission on the Open Skies and during bilateral contacts with the American side.

The Russian representative office recalled that the United States was not only the initiators of the development of the Treaty, but also filed the largest annual applications for conducting observation missions over the territory of Russia. For example, for 2020, Washington has already managed to request 21 flights, which is a third more than in previous years, diplomats point out.

“Russia, having an annual quota of 42 flights, uses only six to eight flights over the United States, the rest fall to Europe,” the statement emphasizes.

The head of the Federation Council’s committee on international affairs, Konstantin Kosachev, in an interview with RT noted that the United States has a decisive say in NATO, so its leadership echoes Trump’s allegations of "violations" by the Russian Federation.

“There is strict Euro-Atlantic discipline and the confidence of the US allies that in any difficult situations, the Americans will defend the European theater of action. That is why, choosing between the truth and interests, these countries act in accordance with their interests, even if it contradicts the real situation, ”he said.

"The mechanism for managing Europe"

It is worth noting that the Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly rejected accusations by the American side of violating the DON, while pointing out that the United States does not always follow this agreement.

So, on May 21, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, recalled Moscow’s claims to Washington in this matter.

“For example, we stated that since 2017, the United States has tightened its approaches to the implementation of this treaty with respect to Russia and from January 2018 several restrictive measures have begun to apply to our country. This is a refusal to grant permission to depart from American air traffic rules and aviation safety standards, and a change in special procedures for carrying out observation flights over the Hawaiian Islands by limiting the maximum range of flights from Hickam air base, and a refusal to provide overnight stays on the continental United States, and much, much another, ”she explained.

At the same time, Zakharova emphasized that the parties have all the necessary mechanisms for resolving contentious issues.

• The official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Maria Zakharova
• RIA News
• © Vladimir Song

According to experts, the mutual claims exchanged between the Russian Federation and the United States regarding the implementation of DON are technical in nature and could be resolved during the consultations, but they don’t want this in Washington.

“Of course, the claims are mutual. But the difference is that the Russian Federation is ready to resolve this purely technical issue at the negotiating table, while the United States is not. So the responsibility lies entirely with Washington, ”said Andrei Koshkin, an expert at the Association of Military Political Scientists, in an interview with RT.

Meanwhile, analysts predict that European DON members are unlikely to denounce the treaty following Washington’s example, since far more Americans are interested in it. In particular, experts recalled that earlier France, Germany and the UK had already gone against the United States, refusing to break the nuclear deal with Iran.

“Europe is very interested in this agreement, because they do not have such space intelligence as the United States. Naturally, such overflights are very valuable for them, which make it possible to maintain a certain level of transparency and trust between states, ”said Koshkin.

According to him, despite Washington’s strong influence on the EU’s military policy, Brussels could stand up for it in the Open Skies Treaty.

“NATO is the mechanism of governing Europe by the United States. With its help, Americans persuade other countries to adhere to a certain foreign policy line. But in recent years, skepticism has been growing in the EU about this state of affairs. In Brussels, they are unhappy with Trump's destructive actions that undermine their safety, says Koshkin. “I hope that DON will be a turning point in the relationship between Washington and European states, a certain moment of truth in understanding what is permissible and what is not.”

A similar point of view is shared by Andrei Manoilo, member of the Scientific Council under the Security Council of Russia, doctor of political sciences.

“Other NATO countries are unlikely to leave the Don. EU members are more interested in it than the United States. It is obvious that if there is no such treaty, then the common European security will suffer. Brussels is aware of this. They understand that the current American administration is openly adventurous. The main thing is that they have enough strength to show independence in this matter, ”he said in an interview with RT.

According to Andrei Koshkin, Russia's position on this issue is clear and consistent. Moscow is always trying to preserve those international agreements that contribute to maintaining security in the world, and especially on the European continent, the analyst notes.

“Russia is distinguished by a clear fulfillment of its obligations. Moscow seeks to maintain stability and predictability in the arms issue. Especially in Europe, which until recently was the scene of two of the most bloody wars in history, ”summed up Koshkin.