The cover page of the European Commission's economic spring forecast is fresh green and flowery.
But the inside offers carbon-black details and is full of red numbers.
- It is quite clear that the EU has gone into its deepest economic recession so far, notes Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni when he presents the results at a press conference in Brussels.
For the entire EU, a giant is being debated where GDP this year will fall by 7.4 percent and unemployment amounts to 9 percent. The worst is the situation for Greece, Spain and Italy, which can expect GDP to fall by almost 10 percent.
Greece's national debt is expected to rise to 196 percent of GDP this year, while Italy rises to 158 percent and Portugal to 132 percent.
Gentiloni also warns that the real result is more likely to be worse than better compared to the forecast.
- The current pandemic is truly a global shock, says the commissioner.
High unemployment
Sweden is expected to do slightly better than the average in terms of the overall economy this year, even though it still represents a 6.1 per cent decline in GDP. Thereafter, an estimated increase of 4.3 per cent in 2021 will follow.
In turn, unemployment is predicted to be among the highest in the EU. The 9.7 percent unemployment rate in Sweden is only topped by Greece (19.9), Spain (18.9), Italy (11.8), Croatia (10.2) and France (10.1). Next year, high Swedish unemployment is also expected, 9.3 percent.
In order to come back again, the European Commission hopes that the Member States can agree on strong measures. This is partly about the "recovery initiative" that is now being developed, and partly about a substantially updated proposal for a new long-term budget for the years 2021-2027.
- Our plan and how it will be funded will be decided in the coming weeks. We work hard and it's not an easy job, ”Gentiloni says.
North to South?
One of the major issues is how much affected countries can receive grants and what should be given as loans and how they should be paid in that case. Countries like Italy and Spain are pushing for generous conditions, while Germany and the Netherlands are much more restrained.
However, the CFO warns of the consequences if the corona crisis leads to even greater economic disparities between the countries.
- Such differences are a threat to the internal market and the euro zone. But they can be relieved with the help of decisive joint measures, says Paolo Gentiloni in Brussels.