Paris (AFP)

The world economy is preparing for a historic downturn under the effect of the new coronavirus, the toll of which continues to climb inexorably, with more than 86,000 deaths in total since the start of the pandemic.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the fall in world trade could reach 32% in 2020. Trade should drop to "double digits" in "almost all regions" of the planet, he said. she warned, predicting a trade contraction "probably greater" than that caused by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Consequence of confinement - more than half of humanity lives forced or encouraged by the authorities to stay at home -, "entire sectors of the national economies have been closed" or "directly affected": transport, travel, hotels, restaurants, non-essential retail trade, tourism, "a significant part of manufacturing activity" ...

The International Labor Organization (ILO) has warned that 1.25 billion workers may be directly affected.

"Since the beginning of this crisis, we have been sitting at home, no more money comes in," lamented Mohamed Said, a 36-year-old carpenter in Cairo and father of three, forced to queue for an aid distribution. food. "We no longer know how to feed our children (...)."

- 77 days! -

France announced on Wednesday a drop of about 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter. Locomotive of the European continent, Germany expects a decline of almost 10% in the second quarter.

Faced with this unprecedented crisis, the EU continues to tear itself apart: after a night of discussions, its 27 finance ministers have failed to agree on a common economic response.

"Failure is unthinkable," said French Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire, while his Italian counterpart Roberto Gualtiere called for "solidarity and courageous and shared choices".

But Germany, like the Netherlands, reaffirmed their categorical refusal to pool public debts to revive the economy.

In the United States, the Donald Trump administration has initiated further discussions with Congress to release an additional $ 250 billion to preserve jobs. The Democrats have asked for another $ 500 billion.

In China, tens of thousands of passengers rushed Wednesday at Wuhan stations, thanks to the lifting of the blockade imposed at the end of January in this megalopolis of 11 million inhabitants from which the epidemic started.

"I got up at 4 am today. It feels so good!" Says Hao Mei, a 39-year-old woman, before getting on the train to join her children who she was deprived of for more than two month. "I've been stuck here for 77 days! 77 days!" Exclaimed another man at the start.

Health controls remain tight, however, with authorities fearing a second wave of epidemics.

- "Play with fire" -

Only two deaths have been recorded in the last 24 hours in China, for an official toll of 3,333 deaths, but disputed in particular by the American authorities, who accuse Beijing of having underestimated the number of victims and contributed to the planetary spread of the virus.

President Trump also got angry at the World Health Organization (WHO), which he considers too close to Beijing. He notably criticized his decision to speak out against closing the borders to people from China at the start of the epidemic. "WHO has really crashed," he wrote in a tweet, threatening to end US funding for the UN agency.

"Do not politicize the virus," retorted the UN agency. "No need to use the Covid to score political points! (...) You have many other means to prove yourself," said his boss, the Ethiopian Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, calling not to "play with fire ". The world must "muster its energy", the "United States and China should unite to fight this dangerous enemy".

In number of cases, the United States is today the country most affected, with more than 400,000 contaminations officially listed. In the midst of the turmoil, New York State recorded a new death record, with 779 deaths in 24 hours, and "we are absolutely not out of the woods", even if the progression of the pandemic stabilizes, according to Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Italy remains the most bereaved country with 17,669 deaths, followed by Spain (14,555), the United States (13,829) and France (10,869, including 541 in 24 hours).

In the latter country, there were a total of 7,148 serious cases in intensive care on Wednesday, "an absolute record" since the start of the epidemic. This is "still very active" even if the net increase in the number of patients in intensive care is less and less strong, according to health authorities. The confinement, in force since mid-March, "will be extended" beyond April 15, announced the President of the Republic.

In Britain, a new ceiling of 938 dead was counted in 24 hours, for more than 7,000 in all. The health of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in intensive care for three days in a London hospital after being contaminated with Covid-19, "improves" according to his Minister of Finance.

- "Coronavirus 2020 info" -

A little everywhere in Europe, one scrutinizes the figures to detect the slightest sign of hope. In Spain, if the daily balance sheet went up again for the second consecutive day, the authorities claim to have exceeded the peak of contagion.

"We're still a little overwhelmed, but it's getting better. Fewer patients are dying," said Antonio Alvarez, a nurse at a hospital in Barcelona.

Confinement would thus begin to bear fruit, with the effect of a reduction in hospital tension, in Spain, Italy and France, the three European countries most severely affected.

While millions of Europeans have been confined for weeks and are showing obvious signs of weariness with the arrival of fine weather, Austria presented on Wednesday a schedule of cautious relaxation of the restrictions in force on its soil, which will begin after Easter with the reopening of small shops.

Denmark and Norway, in "semi containment", have also communicated restart dates. Portugal and Greece mention deadlines. The recovery will take place in stages with the maintenance of precautionary measures.

But for WHO, despite some "positive signs", any relaxation is premature. The Italian government commissioner for the coronavirus, Domenico Arcuri, also warned against "optical illusions" because "we are far from the exit".

Another consequence of the pandemic: hackers, sponsored by certain states, use the coronavirus as bait to attack personal computers and social networks, warned the American and British computer security agencies. Email messages such as "Coronavirus 2020 Info", phishing texts, or bogus websites on the Covid-19 encourage users to click on infected links that bypass protection systems or install malware.

© 2020 AFP