Moscow is ready “even today” to agree with Washington on the extension of the START III treaty. The ambassador of Russia to the United States Anatoly Antonov said this in an interview with the magazine of the American Arms Control Association Arms Control Today.

The diplomat recalled that last year the Russian leadership announced its readiness to extend the current treaty on the reduction of strategic offensive weapons.

“However, we have not yet received an answer. Representatives of the Trump administration continue to argue that “there is still time,” because, in their opinion, the extension of the contract can be completed in a matter of days, ”Antonov said.

The US adheres to this position, despite repeated explanations by the Russian side that the extension of the contract is not a “simple formality”, but a very large-scale process, requiring a number of domestic legislative procedures.

  • Anatoly Antonov
  • RIA News
  • © Mikhail Turgiev

“I would like to repeat: past similar review processes show that the extension of START III can take several months,” the Russian diplomat recalled.

However, there are still small shifts in the negotiations. The parties were able to discuss the factors that influence strategic stability. According to the Russian side, the deployment of the global missile defense system, the threat of placing weapons in space, as well as the development of low-power nuclear munitions and the danger of lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, are primarily such factors.

Recall that in mid-January, Russia and the United States held talks on strategic stability in Vienna. Country delegations were led by Deputy Foreign Secretary Sergei Ryabkov and Acting Under Secretary of State Christopher Ford.

As Antonov noted, the positive outcome of the talks was an agreement to hold discussions at the expert level on a number of topics.

The interview also raised the issue of involving third countries in addition to Russia and the United States in the agreement. The White House has long insisted on the need to connect China to the strategic offensive arms treaty. This requirement has become one of the key obstacles to the prolongation of the Russian-American START III agreement. As John Rood (then the deputy head of the Pentagon. - RT ) said in December 2019, if the United States now agreed to prolong the treaty, it would reduce the chances of creating a broader agreement with the participation of the PRC.

Moscow does not object to expanding the format of the agreement, but does not believe that it should be exclusively about Beijing. As Antonov recalled, Moscow has repeatedly said that with the signing of START III, any possibilities for further reduction and limitation of strategic offensive weapons on a bilateral basis are practically exhausted and further progress in this area will require the involvement of other states with military nuclear capabilities.

“However, we do not understand why some of our American colleagues speak exclusively about China. Let’s connect the NATO and nuclear members, Britain and France, to this, ”the diplomat emphasized, recalling that the Chinese side rejected the idea of ​​participating in a tripartite agreement on strategic arms control.

The foundation of global stability

Beijing has repeatedly stated that it does not intend to become the third party to the START III treaty, despite Washington’s calls. Once again, this idea was repeated in early March by the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Zhao Lijian.

“China has repeatedly said that we do not intend to join the so-called trilateral arms control negotiations between Russia, China and the United States, and this position is quite clear,” said the Chinese diplomat.

It should be noted that the UN position on the START issue is largely consistent with the approach to the problem of the Russian side. In January 2020, UN Deputy Secretary General, High Representative for Disarmament, Izumi Nakamitsu, called on Russia and the United States to first extend the current agreement and then negotiate a new treaty with different conditions or the number of participants. According to her, now the parties need to focus on maintaining and extending the existing agreement. Moreover, in the future it would be correct to include all countries that are members of the nuclear club in the agreement on the reduction of nuclear weapons.

“START III is one of the cornerstones supporting the system of international balance and arms control. This agreement fixes certain rules of the game for nuclear powers in this area, ”said Andrei Manoilo, doctor of political sciences, member of the Scientific Council under the Security Council of Russia in a commentary on RT.

As the expert emphasized, if the agreement ceases to be valid, there are no restrictions for world players.

“This, in turn, will lead to a certain imbalance in the international security system. And in such a situation, there is a risk of uncoordinated actions of a state, this can turn into negative consequences for everyone, ”Manoilo explained.

According to an expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, Sergey Ermakov, the constant claims that are voiced by the American leadership against Russia and the PRC are alarming.

“In general, the United States proceeds from the premise that START III should be extended, although they are postponing these negotiations. This inspires some optimism, although there are negative signals, ”said the expert in an interview with RT.

However, the American side continues to uphold its approach. As stated earlier in the State Department, the process of extending START III will only require the exchange of diplomatic notes between Russia and the United States and will not take much time.

According to the American side, countries need to conclude an agreement that will cover new Russian weapons. In particular, we can talk about “exotic novelties,” such as the nuclear-powered submarine carrying a nuclear weapon Poseidon, a nuclear-powered cruise missile equipped with a nuclear warhead, and others.

  • Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama
  • RIA News
  • © Dmitry Astakhov

Recall that START III was signed in 2010 by the then leaders of Russia and the United States, Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama. The agreement replaced the START-I agreement of 1991 and the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty of May 24, 2002 (PRSP). According to the START-I treaty between 1994 and 2009, Russia and the United States increased the number of nuclear warheads on each side to 6,000. In addition, in 1993 the parties entered into an agreement banning ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, the agreement was called START II.

However, after the United States withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Defense (ABM) Treaty in 2001, START II effectively ceased to exist. Instead, in 2002, the United States and Russia signed the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SOR), according to which Moscow and Washington pledged to reduce the number of warheads on combat duty to 2.2 thousand on each side.

Under the terms of the START-III treaty, which replaced both START-I and SORT, the United States and Russia pledged to reduce the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), ballistic missiles of submarines and heavy bombers to 700 units within seven years. The number of warheads on deployed carriers should not exceed 1550. At the same time, the number of deployed and non-deployed launchers should not exceed 800 units.

The document provides for the right of each participant to independently determine the composition and structure of their strategic weapons, as well as carry out their modernization. The contract expires at the beginning of 2021, but it can be extended for another five years.

“Serious Perspective”

Speaking about the extension of START III, we should not forget that this is only the first stage of the work that countries must do to maintain global security, said Sergey Ermakov. After the extension is completed, a new strategic offensive arms treaty will have to be concluded, which should replace START III.

“And work in this direction should be started today. Even if the current agreement is extended, countries will still have a very difficult dialogue. Especially when you consider the claims and requirements of Washington, ”said Sergey Ermakov.

  • Strategic bomber Tu-160
  • RIA News
  • © Maxim Tumanov

However, how the United States and Russia will now agree on a simple extension of the agreement will show in which direction the world will move in general.

“These negotiations will represent a serious prospect for the entire world community. If Washington and Moscow can establish a dialogue, if it succeeds in connecting other countries of the nuclear club to the negotiations, then this will strengthen international stability, ”said Yermakov.

Andrei Manoilo agrees that the United States will not stop its efforts to draw China into a strategic agreement. According to the expert, American politicians associate their hopes with the losses that China suffered as a result of the trade war and the coronavirus pandemic.

“Beijing received a severe blow to the economy, as a result of all the events of recent years, it has suffered significant damage and will now recover for a long time. And in the USA, they believe that now China will not resist a powerful rival, ”the expert said.

At the same time, there is nothing strange in the US’s leisureliness regarding the extension of START III, Manoilo explained.

“This is a common practice when signing international agreements. When one side tries to pretend that there is no place to rush - this is an element of bargaining. The United States is also trying to bargain for itself the best conditions, and it will be difficult to say what this will lead to, ”the expert summed up.