deal! New energy vehicle subsidies will be extended for 2 years Expert: The era of large subsidies is over
China-Singapore Jingwei Client April 1st (Fu Yumei) China's new energy vehicles started to pick up this spring.
On March 31, Premier Li Keqiang hosted an executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting pointed out that in order to promote automobile consumption, it was determined to extend the policy of subsidies and purchase tax exemptions for new energy vehicles for two years.
Photograph by Xin Jingwei and Fu Yumei
New energy vehicle subsidies, which should have officially ended at the end of this year, have continued. For industries that have suffered a major shock during the epidemic, it is undoubtedly a major plus. However, how can new energy vehicles that have relied on subsidies for a long time be kind to the new era of subsidies?
Sales volume is now negative, and the epidemic period is hit again
In 2019, the policy supported China's new energy vehicle production and sales for the past ten years.
According to the China Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2019 were 1.242 million and 1.206 million, down 2.3% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively.
Starting from sales in July 2019, sales of new energy vehicles have fallen for six consecutive months. One of the reasons for the "endless fall" is the decline of new energy subsidies.
From June 26, 2019, the national subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by about 50%, and local subsidies will be withdrawn. The subsidy decline in 2019 reached 70% as a whole, exceeding industry expectations.
Many industry players have called for "subsidy subsidies." At this year's China Electric Vehicle Hundreds Meeting, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei mentioned that subsidies will not decline further after July 1, 2020, making the outside world begin to speculate on a new direction for subsidies.
The epidemic period may accelerate the implementation of extended subsidies. "In the first two months of this year, the production of new energy vehicles was 50,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 63%. Among them, the total number of new energy vehicle passenger cars dropped by 58%, and the Chinese new energy vehicle market was severely depressed. The European new energy vehicle market performed strongly. The month-on-year growth is 122% year-on-year. Therefore, domestic subsidies are needed to increase support. "Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, told reporters from China and Singapore.
The local “rescue the market” policy introduced during the epidemic period also provided corresponding incentives for new energy vehicles. For example, Guangzhou issued a policy on March 3 stating that it will provide individual consumers with a comprehensive subsidy of 10,000 yuan per vehicle for purchasing new energy vehicles.
Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Institute of Digital Economy, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said: "During the epidemic, due to the demand for stable growth and promotion of consumption, the central and local governments made great determination on the automobile consumption. As a key support industry, it has always attracted much attention. Judging from this policy of extending subsidies, the two-year extension period can also be seen as intensive. "
Pan Helin still said: "Many consumers chose early the reason for new energy vehicles because of the low-cost benefits brought by subsidies. Once the subsidies are cancelled, new energy vehicles will lose a certain advantage, which can be seen from the recent decline in sales. . Coupled with the epidemic situation, some car companies may indeed be unable to support it. "
Industry knockout accelerated
As Pan Helin said, at a time when new energy subsidies are about to "wean", the epidemic is accelerating the elimination of the entire industry. Among them, the new power car companies in the early stage of development are particularly difficult.
Photograph by Xin Jingwei and Fu Yumei
According to a number of media reports recently, new-power car companies such as Future Cars and Boyun Auto have been exposed to arrears of employees' salaries or supplier payments.
There are also car companies forced out. In March, Green Chi Auto completed the equity change. Henan SDIC Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. subscribed 2 billion yuan for 60% of the shares and became the actual controller of Green Chi Auto with a subscribed amount of 2.02 billion yuan.
Jia Xinguang, executive director of the China Automobile Dealers Association, once told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei reporter: "New forces have gradually got rid of the initial stage of" PPT car construction "and entered the competition of strength car construction. However, to truly achieve car construction The goal is not only whether we can build a car, but also whether it can achieve mass production and delivery. "
Behind mass production and delivery are often huge "burning money" investments. Li Bin, chairman of Weilai Automobile, once stated publicly that if he wants to build a car, 20 billion yuan is the threshold. For new-margin auto companies on the edge, new energy vehicle subsidies are even more important because financing has been blocked again and again because they have no hematopoietic function.
"This two-year extension of the subsidy policy should benefit most from some small new-powered car companies, which is equivalent to providing them with a longer buffer period. Many of these car companies have not even offline their models. They also encountered the impact of the epidemic, and the subsidy was a 'life-saving straw' for them. "Zhang Xiang, an auto industry analyst, said.
For relatively mature car companies, the role of new energy vehicle subsidies cannot be ignored. On March 18, JAC Motors released its 2019 annual report. In 2019, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 106 million yuan, turning losses into profits. An important factor contributing to its performance growth is "government subsidy receivables", including central and local new energy vehicle subsidies.
According to Jianghuai Automobile's financial report, the current non-recurring profit and loss totaled about 1.084 billion yuan, of which the government subsidies included in the current profit and loss were about 1.117 billion yuan and the total balance was about 3.882 billion yuan. It is expected to be collected within 4 years. However, JAC also indicated that the continued decline of new energy subsidies is also one of the risks that the company will face in the future.
At present, with the official extension of the subsidy policy, many domestic car companies, like JAC, will temporarily relieve their sigh of relief.
In addition, Zhang Xiang still mentioned that this policy will also benefit foreign car companies that have continuously entered the Chinese new energy vehicle market in recent years.
According to the news of Tianyan Inspection, on March 25, BYD Toyota Electric Vehicle Technology Co., Ltd. was formally established and landed in Pingshan District, Shenzhen. Toyota's efforts are regarded as one of the representatives of traditional car giants to catch up with China's new energy market. Tesla, another new energy vehicle company in the Chinese market, has officially launched the domestic Model Y project in January, accelerating the second domestic model.
The industry believes that with the continued assistance of subsidies, it can be expected that the race for the entire new energy automobile industry will be more fierce.
Expert: The era of big subsidies is over, car companies must face the market
It cannot be ignored that the external disputes over subsidies for new energy vehicles have never ceased.
On October 11, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Public Notice on the Liquidation Review of New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Subsidy Funds in 2017". The enterprise applied for a total of 236,881 new energy vehicles. Only 207,409 vehicles passed the review and were found to be unqualified Among the vehicles, the main reason was that they did not drive enough 20,000 kilometers in two years, and the rest were reduced because they did not connect to the national regulatory platform or the uploaded data did not meet the policies and national standards.
This audit data is also reminiscent of the multiple "scams" incidents in new energy vehicle companies in recent years. In addition, this table also shows that the total amount of subsidies approved in 2017 was 22.027 billion yuan. The three car companies that received the largest subsidies were Yutong, BYD, and Zhongtong, with subsidy amounts of 4.59 billion yuan, 3.461 billion yuan, and 1.12 billion yuan. .
Under the huge bonus, are the car companies rushing up to build cars or subsidies? Will they rely too much on subsidies and abuse them? These have become the topics of early debate. Now that the era of subsidies continues, how should the industry develop itself?
Wang Binggang, the leader of the national new energy vehicle innovation engineering expert group, once said at this year's China Electric Vehicles Hundred Talents Forum that subsidies have played a key role in promoting the development of new energy vehicles, promoting technological progress and breakthroughs, and motivating enterprises. Enthusiasm and social capital investment, promote the formation of the industrial chain, build the infrastructure and market environment that initially meet the needs, and initially form a large-scale market.
However, there are also disadvantages to subsidy policies, such as overly detailed regulations on certain technical routes and excessive subsidies in some areas. In the next step, no matter whether the state continues to issue subsidies or maintain subsidies at a low level, it will not play a major role in promoting the industry. In other words, no matter whether there are subsidies after 2021, and how many subsidies, the era of large subsidies has passed. The new energy vehicle industry must have a market-oriented attitude and meet challenges.
Zhang Xiang said: "China's new energy vehicle companies have a relatively large number of industries, and the industry's concentration is not high. 'Weaning' can accelerate the independent development of vehicle companies to a certain extent. Now that the subsidy has been extended, the time front to promote industry concentration and high-quality development has again Elongated. "
Many experts also suggested that the development direction of the industry after the subsidy extension must be transformed and upgraded. "If the subsidy is as large and simplified as it was before, the disadvantages will be obvious at the time, which is not conducive to the long-term development of the industry. Under the premise of a stable market, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy must be optimized and accurate in terms of landing. Future subsidies More links to the market should be made available, and market-based means should be used to subsidize technological progress. If the technical aspect is not worked, the entire industry can only stay at a low level. "Pan Helin said.
Zhang Xiang proposed that new energy vehicles should gradually increase industry standards in the new stage of subsidies. "At present, our national standards are lower than those in Europe and the United States. This is why it is difficult for domestic new energy vehicles to enter the international market. At least 95% of China's new energy vehicles are sold domestically. Nearly 50% of its sales come from overseas markets. "
Cui Dongshu also said that the continued subsidy will drive the growth of China's new energy market, but China must also keep up with the international pace. "Especially in Europe, new energy vehicles have been developing at a high speed and the transformation is fast. Domestic car companies should strengthen the path of new energy transformation and strive to promote the transformation of traditional vehicles to new energy."
Now, for the entire new energy vehicle industry, the question of "whether to supplement" has been answered, and "how to supplement" may be further answered at the new subsidy stage. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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