• Special Brexit: Keys, divorce chronology and future challenges
  • Brexit. Europeans in the United Kingdom, "on the edge of the abyss" for their pre-settled status
  • Boris Johnson: Prime Minister threatens to break negotiations with Brussels in June

Almost three years after the start of the process, and just over a month after the consummation of the separation, the first post-Brexit negotiations officially started today in Brussels . It has been a slow and complicated road, notice that the phase that starts now is the really difficult one. The part of the break, which led ahead of a couple of prime ministers and 50 senior officials on the islands, in addition to fracturing Parliament and society as a whole, was the appetizer, at least on a technical level. The fight really began to intuit it only now .

The teams of Michel Barnier and David Frost have seen their faces for the first time this Monday, after both have received the mandates of their respective governments to try the impossible, an agreement good enough and in record time, just 10 months . A few weeks ago the terminology used was a relationship as close or ambitious as possible, but following the clashes between London and Brussels and the notable threats of Boris Johnson, expectations have been lowered.

The European mantra is that "there will be no agreement at any price." The British, who previously get up from the table have to get too close to community standards. The European Union is obsessed with fishing and with what is known as 'Level playing-field' (LPF), something like "fair playing field" or that there are fair playing conditions, so that the United Kingdom from 2021 does not become a "Singapore on the Thames" , with a fiscal, labor or industrial regime that poses a direct disadvantage for continental competitiveness. "We approach these negotiations with a constructive spirit. We want to agree on an ambitious and fair partnership. We will respect our previous joint commitments," Barnier said this afternoon, who will report on the first results on Thursday.

The British want to end this Transition Period as soon as possible, which remains until December 31 and forces them to comply with European legislation but without being able to participate in the decision-making process. They do not want more extensions, they are marking distances and Johnson has been parapeted by what is known as a Canada or Canada + model, similar to the free trade agreement signed by the EU with the North American country two years ago, and which in fact took seven to negotiate. A very respectable desire, but complicated to satisfy, given the size of its economy, its physical proximity and the ties of decades .

His warning is that if in June (London has until 30 to request an extension of one or two years of the current status if it does not see a way out) there is no progress, they get up from the table and spend the next six months to prepare for the impact of a very hard Brexit and a minimum ratio on the scarce principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO). That in practice is very important tariffs and much lower exchanges.

Pessimism in Brussels is maximum. Up to half a dozen high diplomatic and community sources believe that the coming months will be a "hell" and that the options for everything to jump through the air are important, at least as long as the current rhetoric is maintained. The messages of the Johnson Government, the tone outflows and the constant possibility that the very difficult fittings made to avoid borders in Northern Ireland are not being taken seriously generate a genuine concern. If they do not keep the word on something so important, how can they trust that they will be a serious counterpart and loyal business partners in a decade?

Negotiations will take place in three-week cycles, so that Barnier can inform and receive instructions from the 27 . They will be in English and although the presentation session, more than technical issues that have taken place in the Commission premises, will be held in a conference center tomorrow, because the British delegation exceeds 120 people .

David Frost (left) and Michel Barnier (right) pose before the negotiating session held today in Brussels.

The strategy on both sides is now to focus first on the most important areas , those that can prevent disruptive consequences on December 31, and focus on where they are closest. Everything that is advanced is a success. The order is now much greater. They are no longer a few officials of maximum trust, but many tens in parallel addressing hundreds of different areas.

Fishing is, perhaps, one of the most delicate issues and that before can make the talks run aground. The EU wants the same access as now, and the United Kingdom, which needs more to sell its fish than to close its fishing grounds, threatens to put much harder limits, which creates fear and rage on the continental shores.

The British generally want market access to be the central element, but on the other side of the channel they want guarantees, standards and reiterate that the opening to the goods and services of the United Kingdom is directly proportional to their commitment and guarantees . France is, once again, the hardest bone to crack among the 27. It is he who forced a tougher and more restrictive mandate. He is insisting on the need to claim "dynamic alignment" with European rules, something that many of his colleagues do not understand. In other capitals they say that it is necessary to look for products that do not meet the standards not to enter the EU, but maintain that it is not prudent or wise to tell anyone how to do things at home. They will know.

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