Last week, the ruling sovereign council in Sudan announced that it was planning to cooperate with the International Criminal Court to prosecute former President Omar al-Bashir and four of his aides, who were convicted of atrocities and genocide in Darfur, as part of a final peace deal with the armed movements in the country. This is a moment of change in the rapidly evolving political climate in Sudan, but it is the last step in an amazing series of major political changes in recent weeks, which involve the possibility of a fundamental reformulation of Sudan's relationship with the rest of the world. In this case, the government offer could turn Sudan from an international rival of the ICC into an ally.

details

Just a few days ago, details of a secret meeting appeared between the President of the Transitional Sovereign Council of Sudan, Major General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu.

In fact, the possibility of normalizing relations between the two enemy countries, and canceling a history of hostile relations during which Sudan was targeted by Israeli aviation, nearly a decade ago, for its role in smuggling weapons into the West Bank and Gaza Strip, supports Sudan’s new leaders ’promises to pursue a balanced foreign policy , And played a positive role in the region and beyond.

This comes in the wake of a leaked letter from the Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamduk to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, last month, in which he proposes to send a comprehensive political mission from the United Nations to Sudan that works to transform the relationship with the international organization from the relationship of conflict with it to cooperation and compliance, with the aim of Helping to “consolidate peacebuilding gains and provide technical support for judicial and security sector reforms.”

Shift in position

This position is considered a shift from the period when the United Nations was viewed as a colonial and gas power during the rule of former President Omar al-Bashir, where the UN forces were forced to force their way into the country, in a modest attempt to succeed in order to protect civilians in Darfur from bombing Government forces, and what was known as the infamous "Janjaweed" militia responsible for many of the worst violations committed by the Bashir regime. And that conflict led to the flight of nearly two million people from their homes, the killing of about 300 thousand people, and cast a shadow over the entire country until this moment that the new government is doing away with its consequences.

This impressive set of radical political changes is impressive given the nature of the division that characterizes the government that governs the state. As part of an agreement quickly agreed last summer that kept the country out of the brink of violence, a civilian government was formed that shared power with the governing Sovereign Council.

Since assuming power six months ago, many skeptics saw that this “Sudanese model is unique in the transitional period,” which Prime Minister Hamdock saw, as efforts were made by the army to give a civilian face to his efforts to attract foreign investment and remove international sanctions. Remaining.

Many observers still believe that civilians will be unable to change the dynamic of the primary authority of a country in which the interests of the military and its property are protected, and it has the first priority over anything else. Under this assumption, many international governments, including President Donald Trump's administration in the United States, have decided to wait to see what form of government is in the country, praising civilian rule, but remain cautious in their dealings with major policy incentives, such as removing sanctions, Debt relief, fearing the military would take full control once all sanctions on Sudan were removed.

frustration

Indeed, frustration is increasing inside and outside Sudan about the government's shy implementation of policy implementation, and its fear of disturbing political and military leaders on big or small issues. The delay in changing military rulers at the state level with other civilians, and the decision to remove subsidies that deplete the government budget, shows that this unelected government is not in a rush to antagonize these powers of influence.

Therefore, it is very difficult to explain the dramatic moves by the civil government during the past few weeks, such as handing over senior leaders to the International Criminal Court, and greatly expanding the operations of the United Nations in the country, and both moves appear to be in the interest of the army. In fact, these moves indicate that the army shares the government's desire to see the state integrated into the international community.

Ultimately, the declaration that appeared this week that Sudan guaranteed the people wanted by the International Criminal Court to be tried fairly, came through the spokesperson of the army-run sovereign council.

Even on the Israeli issue, and given his realization that this would surely result in popular anger and political costs in any Arab country as a result of the meeting with Netanyahu, why did Sudan’s military leader initiate such a meeting if he was not hoping to advance Sudan’s chances of getting rid of his position on List of terrorism and moving forward with the ideals of the revolution? The reasons behind this cooperative approach between the army and civilian leaders are evident when there is a third leg in the structure of the Sudanese authority included in the equation, which are the militias led by Hamidati, which is what has become called the "Rapid Support Forces", and it is the strongest in the state, as it is They pose a threat to the role of the conventional army. These forces control gold mines and large amounts of financial reserves, in addition to leading tens of thousands of conscripts. The Sudanese army has always feared the RSF, hate it as a rival force center, and undisciplined forces lack formal training for the professional army.

And if the state continues its relationship with the International Criminal Court, this will be a direct threat to Hamidati, and if he feels that his freedom is threatened, he can use his financial strength and his forces to undermine the still weak government.

But by their alliance with the civilian leaders in the state, Sudan's military leaders may play the long strategic game, which would marginalize the RSF, ensure that it remains under the new government distribution, and advance the primary goal of the revolution of state reform.

Cameron Hudson: expert in the Africa division of the Atlantic Council

- Many observers still believe that civilians will be unable to change the dynamic of the primary authority of a country in which the interests of the military and its property are protected, and it has the first priority over anything else.

- The delay in changing the military rulers at the state level with other civilians appeared, and the decision to remove the subsidies that deplete the government budget has receded that this unelected government is not in a rush to antagonize these important powers of influence.