Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid welcomed the intention of the United States to allocate $ 1 billion to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe as part of the Three Seas Initiative. She stated this at a round table with the participation of US Secretary of Energy Dan Bruyett on the final day of the Munich Conference on International Security.
According to the Estonian leader, the intention of the United States indicates "a firm faith in the economy of our region." She noted that the countries participating in the Three Seaside project occupy a third of the territory of the European Union. However, their aggregate GDP is small and makes up only one fifth of the EU economy.
“Therefore, it is important to find opportunities to attract more investment in the infrastructures, energy and digital spheres of these countries and thereby develop cooperation between European countries,” said Kaljulaid.
On February 15, in his speech at the Munich Conference, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke about Washington’s readiness to invest up to $ 1 billion in the Three Seas Initiative. In his opinion, this project is designed to ensure the region’s energy security.
"Sanitary cordon"
The Three Seas Initiative has existed since 2016. The project unites 12 countries of the region. Participants include Poland, Croatia, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Romania and Bulgaria.
As experts explain, the name of the project symbolizes the vast geography of the participating countries, whose shores are washed by the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas.
Earlier, Ukraine tried to join the Three Seas Initiative. A similar request was made by President Vladimir Zelensky. However, as Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Chaputovic said at the Warsaw Security Forum in October 2019, Kiev was denied due to lack of EU membership.
In 2020, Estonia will host the Trimory Summit. Last year, leaders of the participating states of the project gathered in Ljubljana, in 2018 - in Bucharest. In 2017, the Summit of the Three Seas Initiative was held in Warsaw. The event was notable for the fact that he was visited by US President Donald Trump.
The participants of the “Trimorye” coordinate issues related to the development of infrastructure: gas pipelines, roads and railways, power lines. Their efforts are also aimed at diversifying energy sources, strengthening ties with the United States and digitalizing national economies.
As Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund, noted in an interview with RT, the Three Seas Energy Initiative aims to build the so-called “interconnectors” - connecting gas pipelines between the participating countries. They will allow redirection of gas flows in the region, including LNG (liquefied natural gas).
- Natural gas storages in Europe
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“We are talking about creating an extensive network of gas pipelines with LNG terminals on the Baltic and Mediterranean seas. Ideally, the members of the “Trimorye” want to connect the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas, that is, to draw a gas pipeline system not from east to west, but to build a vertical line from north to south, ”said Yushkov.
As the expert explained, such an infrastructure scheme is not beneficial for the Russian Federation, since Moscow uses gas pipelines running from east to west. Representatives of Croatia and Poland deny that the project is directed against Russia. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry does not exclude that the “Trimorye” may contribute to attempts to “isolate” Russia.
“We are ready to cooperate with all our European neighbors, if their efforts are not aimed at isolating Russia, creating a kind of“ sanitary cordon, ”which was what the term used to be,” Russian Ambassador to Tallinn Alexander told Interfax in December. Petrov.
Yushkov also believes that Moscow has certain causes for concern. In his opinion, the main goal of Trimorye is a gradual rejection of purchases of Russian hydrocarbons in favor of more expensive American energy resources. By supporting the project, the United States intends to strengthen its presence in the European energy market, the source believes RT.
The initiative of the three seas was aimed at finding an alternative to Russian supplies. It arose before the United States began to impose its LNG. However, now the Americans will use the project to push their gas to the European market, which is more expensive than Russian, ”Yushkov is sure.
In the near future, Warsaw plans to abandon Russian gas imports. In November 2019, the Polish energy group PGNiG notified Gazprom that it was not going to extend the Yamal contract, expiring on December 31, 2022. Warsaw explains its decision by the desire to diversify the supply of blue fuel.
PGNiG will buy gas in the USA, Qatar and Norway. Blue fuel will be imported from Scandinavia via the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline, and Poland will expand the LNG terminal in the Baltic port of иноwinoujцеcie to receive American and Qatari gas.
“They hit the common interests”
Experts call the support of the Three Seas Energy Security Initiative by the United States "exclusively political history." According to their calculations, the purchase of American LNG is impractical from an economic point of view. Currently, the business of overseas gas suppliers in the EU is unprofitable, despite the high cost of exported products.
“The US authorities are trying to make LNG supplies profitable, and for this it is necessary to block the channels of Russian exports to the EU. Competition for the European market has intensified, and Americans are forced to float various political instruments. But the situation in recent years demonstrates that Russia is winning this competition, and the Americans can’t do anything about it, ”said Yushkov.
Alexander Frolov, deputy director general of the Institute of National Energy, told RT that Pompeo’s promise to allocate $ 1 billion to modernize the infrastructure of the Trimoria member countries is an attempt to demonstrate "determination to succeed in the European market." True, the expert doubts that the United States is really ready to invest in the region.
- Gas pipeline construction
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“Almost two years ago, the United States already voiced its intentions to invest about a billion dollars in the development of energy infrastructure in Eastern European countries. And since then nothing has happened. To once again promise a billion dollars is, of course, fine, but so far the United States is only giving promises, not money, ”Yushkov stated.
In any case, the expert predicts that $ 1 billion will not be enough to build or modernize even two large LNG terminals in Eastern Europe "with more or less acceptable capacity."
From Frolov’s point of view, the Three Seas Initiative does not pose a serious threat to Russian energy projects, including Nord Stream 2. Western Europe and, first of all, Germany should have the most cause for concern. As the analyst explained, the implementation of Trimorya directly contradicts the EU strategy aimed at creating a single energy space.
The initiative of the three seas involves the creation of a separate gas transmission infrastructure. Its launch caused quite understandable bewilderment in Germany, which is a champion of the implementation of pan-European norms. Any developments of individual EU countries hit the common interests of the European Union. Therefore, it is highly likely that the key initiatives of the Trimorye leaders will not be implemented, ”concluded Frolov.