The Danish Institute for International Studies, which prepares reports for parliament and the government of the kingdom, suggested that Copenhagen strengthen military capabilities in the Arctic so as not to “depend too much” on the US and NATO in the event of an armed conflict.
“In order to ensure proper functioning, control and response in the early stages of the military crisis, as well as to ensure national priorities and interests, the Kingdom of Denmark should give priority to developing sufficient Arctic capabilities so that at the very beginning it does not depend too much on the involvement of the USA and NATO,” - The document reads to RT.
Experts believe that the Danish authorities should strive to develop certain principles according to which the North Atlantic Alliance and the United States will conduct exercises and carry out other military activities. In particular, the report notes that Copenhagen should determine where and when the US and NATO carry out military activities in the kingdom, as well as generally more actively influence the presence of American and NATO forces.
“The USA is the most important ally of Iceland and Denmark. However, the USA is unpredictable and, as experience shows, is not too sensitive to national and local priorities and interests of host countries, ”analysts write.
Recall, last year, US President Donald Trump announced his desire to buy the island of Greenland, which is part of the Danish kingdom. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, in turn, categorically rejected this idea, calling it absurd.
“This is an absurd discussion, and Kim Kielsen (Prime Minister of Greenland. - RT ) made it clear that Greenland is not for sale, so all conversations have stopped,” she said.
In addition, it is worth noting that Copenhagen has already announced plans to strengthen the defense of the Arctic. In December last year, it became known about the authorities' intention to allocate about $ 221 million for these purposes. The Arctic region is “increasingly important in terms of security policy,” Frederiksen said.
As an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, political scientist Vladimir Bruter explained in a conversation with RT, Denmark talked about building up their own military forces due to pressure from the United States, including within NATO.
“Everyone sees that NATO is actually a continuation of the United States and implement only the US agenda. And if Denmark wants variability, it should be able to declare and defend its interests independently and, preferably, in acceptable relations with Russia and other Arctic countries, ”he said.
- Greenland
- Reuters
- © Ritzau Scanpix / Magnus Kristensen
Ice competition
Meanwhile, Danish experts are paying attention to the growing confrontation between the great powers - the United States, Russia and China - in the Arctic. At the same time, Washington views Moscow and Beijing as competitors that need to be “restrained and suppressed,” the authors of the report indicate. In the case of the Russian Federation, the US is concerned about the buildup of Russian military power in the region.
“Washington is increasingly considering political and security issues related to the Arctic through the prism of“ rivalry between the great powers, ”referring Russia and China to its participants, in respect of which measures should be taken to deter and counteract,” the article says.
It is worth noting that in the United States more than once they spoke out about allegedly “threats” from Russia in the Arctic. So, the US senator from Alaska Dan Sullivan said that because of Moscow, the northern region is becoming more "militarized." And the head of the Northern Command of the US Armed Forces, General Terrence O'Shaughnessy, considered that the Russian Federation could strike across the territory of America through the Arctic in case of a potential conflict.
Nevertheless, Danish experts note that the Russian military presence in the Arctic is predominantly defensive in nature. According to them, Moscow is interested in maintaining peace in the Arctic, but the US and NATO military initiatives in the region can be viewed as hostile and lead to even greater strengthening of combat potential.
“Moscow still believes that stability in the region is a key factor in the development of the Russian Arctic as a strategically important resource base. Therefore, Russia is still interested in the Arctic remaining a “zone of peace and cooperation,” according to the Danish Institute for International Studies.
The “threat” of American partnership
Employees of the organization emphasize that the northern countries, including Finland, Norway and Iceland, consider the possibility of a conflict in the Arctic extremely unlikely. At the same time, the authors emphasize that it is worth following the actions of not only China and Russia, but also the United States.
“In particular, the more active cooperation of the Nordic countries in the field of information exchange, as well as the sharing of resources and intelligence related, for example, to various Chinese and Russian entities seeking to start investment or any other activity in the region, would be positively also - potentially - the methods and actions that the United States resorted to there, ”the document says.
Danish institute experts also emphasize that Finland, Norway and Iceland as a whole have a positive view of the increased US presence in the Arctic, but at the same time “are concerned about the possibility of influencing this process and protecting their national priorities and interests when the US and NATO more and more often they begin to dictate their agenda in the Arctic. ”
The northern states, and above all Denmark, are much more concerned about the spontaneous policy of Washington than the imaginary Russian and Chinese “threats”, Vladimir Bruter noted.
“There are no threats from Moscow and Beijing. The military potential of Russia at the moment is such that it is designed to maintain parity with the United States and NATO, but not for any attacks. And Danish experts understand this. Despite the fact that Denmark is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, it has its own opinion. The Danes would like a slightly different disposition, especially if we recall that Trump offered Denmark to sell Greenland, ”the political scientist said.
The United States began to build up armed forces in the Arctic back in 2009. Then, under the leadership of Barack Obama, an Arctic “road map” was adopted, which included the expansion of maritime operations. And in 2013, the US Department of Defense presented the Arctic strategy, including the conduct of exercises in the Arctic to gain experience in military operations in the region.
In 2018, the military bloc conducted large-scale maneuvers near the northern borders of Russia - Trident Juncture. About 30 states took part in them. For the first time in 27 years, the American aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman entered the Arctic Circle. A clear increase in the activity of the US naval forces in the Arctic has recently been noted in the Russian Ministry of Defense.
“Now the composition of the groupings is increasing, including the landing of amphibious assaults,” said Mikhail Bilichenko, chief of staff of the Joint Command of the Armed Forces in the northeast.
In these circumstances, Russia is forced to ensure its security. So, in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed to strengthen the northern borders and create in the Arctic a unified system of basing surface ships and submarines of a new generation.
To date, the military infrastructure in the region has been significantly improved, military bases have been built on Franz Josef Land, the Novosibirsk Islands, and the creation of a military camp in the village of Tiksi is nearing its end. In addition, the Northern Fleet is also being improved - it is being re-equipped on the Bastion coastal complexes and Caliber caliber missiles.
At the same time, peaceful development remains Russia's priority in the region. The main task in the Arctic for the near future is the development of the Northern Sea Route. It is estimated that by 2035 the volume of traffic through the transport artery will increase by almost eight times and reach 160 million tons.
At the same time, Russia stands for strengthening cooperation with all states of the Arctic. This was previously stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Russia has always strived to strengthen cooperation with the states of the Arctic region. I am convinced that only together we can turn the Arctic into a territory of peace, stability and partnership, ”the head of state said.
- Caravan of transport ships passes along the Northern Sea Route
- RIA News
- © Andrey Solomonov
Northern Union
Meanwhile, the Danish Institute for International Studies offers the government to strengthen cooperation with the countries of Northern Europe, in particular on the exchange of information and intelligence.
“The Kingdom of Denmark could explore opportunities to strengthen cooperation between the countries of Northern Europe in the field of information exchange, resource sharing and intelligence gathering about the activities of all three great powers,” the report states.
As experts emphasize, data exchange and policy coordination are particularly relevant in connection with US intentions to resume the operation of a military base in Icelandic Keflavik. By the way, it was on this base that two thousand American marines dropped in before the Trident Juncture exercises in 2018.
Institute staff also noted that Denmark, together with other Arctic countries, should strive for transparency and predictability when conducting military exercises in the region.
The behavior of the United States forces the Allies to be more independent and rely less on Washington and NATO, says Yuri Rogulev, director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States at Moscow State University.
“The United States, through its actions, is setting up a significant number of Europeans against themselves, who are beginning to think about pursuing a more independent policy and greater interaction with their neighbors,” he said.
However, according to the expert, it is too early to expect significant changes in Copenhagen’s foreign policy.
“It's hard to talk about major changes in position. Rather, it is a conjunctural thing related to the current leadership of the United States. A radical change in Danish politics will not happen yet, ”concluded Rogulev.