Who of Domingos Simoes Pereira or Umaro Sissoco Embalo will succeed José Mario Vaz at the head of Guinea-Bissau? The former Prime Minister, leader of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), the country's main party which led the first round with more than 40% of the vote, faced off on Sunday 29 December during the second round Umaro Sissoco Embalo, leader of the Madem G-15, a dissident formation.
"The fight will be tight", warns Vincent Foucher, researcher at CNRS, contacted by France 24. "The former Prime Minister turned largely at the head of the ballot and the PAIGC won all but one election since the advent of multiparty politics. But his challenger, himself from the PAIGC, gathered many dissidents from the party and made alliances with the most important candidates defeated in the first round. ”
Indeed, if Umaru Sissoco Embalo received only 27.7% of the votes, he managed to unite around him the supporters of Nuno Gomes Nabiam, who came third (13% of the votes) and the current head of the 'State which only finished fourth in the ballot (12%).
But the voting instructions may not be followed by the base. “The voting is not automatic due to the political divisions within their formations. Nuno Gomes Nabiam, for example, made the decision to support Umaro Sissoco Embaló unilaterally, without consulting the leadership of his party, who then decided to join Domingos Simões Pereira ”recalls in an interview with Jeune Afrique, Paulin Maurice Toupane, researcher at Institute for Security Studies (ISS), based in Dakar.
The stability of the country, the main issue of the ballot
The main stake of the ballot remains the stability of this Portuguese-speaking country in West Africa of 1.8 million inhabitants which has known, since its independence in 1974, sixteen attempted coups and four military putschs. The last occurred in 2012 between the two presidential rounds, leading to the overthrow of the then Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior. The latter, a new candidate, won only 2% of the vote.
The election in June 2014 of José Mario Vaz, former member of the PAIGC, was intended to pacify the country stuck in corruption, and hub of drug trafficking. But Guinea-Bissau entered a new zone of turbulence fourteen months later, following the dismissal in August 2015, by the president, of his Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira.
Since then, the Prime Ministers' waltz has not stopped. Even after the smooth running of legislative elections last March, won by the PAIGC. No less than seven prime ministers have been appointed by the outgoing president. The last, Aristide Gomes, was supported by the international community and the ECOWAS. Its mission was to prepare the presidential election. His dismissal a few weeks before the election had failed to vacillate the country again in a deep crisis. And left the specter of yet another military coup.
But the army remained silent throughout the electoral process. The soldiers would have had "reasons to intervene, but they did not do it. We believe that [the army] will continue to remain neutral," political analyst Thierno Diallo told AFP. The army no longer thinks of "fomenting coups" and no longer meddles in politics, assured just before the first round General Biague Na Ntam, who has led it since 2014.
The urgency of constitutional reform
However, will the election of a new president be enough to bring Guinea-Bissau out of 40 years of political instability? For Gilles Yabi, the crisis is much deeper. “Guinea-Bissau generally organizes good elections in terms of the credibility of the process. But soon afterwards finds itself in political crises and blockages resulting as much from the behavior not very responsible of its political leaders as from institutional failings ”, explains on RFI the founder of the think tank Wathi, located in Dakar.
To turn the page on the political crisis, it is therefore urgent to reform the constitution - the interpretation of which is a source of tension - to clarify the role of the institutions and personalities that govern it. A point on which also agree the two candidates who clashed Thursday, during a tense televised debate.
“In Guinea-Bissau, the regime is a mixed regime, with a Prime Minister from the parliamentary majority who governs. And a president who has influence over certain things. The texts are vague. Some commentators think that a clearly presidential regime should be adopted, others a clearly parliamentary regime, ”says CNRS researcher Vincent Foucher.
In addition to political issues, the country must also get out of poverty and respond to the needs of the people. It is on these economic issues that the Bissau-Guineans await their new president at the turn. “The big challenge is really to build a state that produces or supervises the production of quality public services for the whole population - school, health, electricity, water…” concludes the CNRS researcher .
Newsletter Don't miss anything from international news
Don't miss anything from international newssubscribe
google-play-badge_FR