Beyond the Brexit Scroll ... Will Johnson succeed in averting the Second World War scenario?

Al Jazeera Net - London

Immediately after his landslide victory in the last elections, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to the maximum speed to implement his main electoral promise of getting his country out of the European Union in the shortest time.

It is only a few days after his return to the Prime Minister's headquarters in London, until Johnson succeeded in passing the UK exit law from the European bloc, leaning on the comfortable majority he won in the House of Commons.

And it voted in favor of the second reading of the exit law 358 members against 234. Opposition. The new in this law is its abolition to extend the transitional period in the event that the British and European parties fail to reach a detailed agreement by the end of next year.

Under the new law, the coming January 31 will be the official withdrawal date for the kingdom from the European Union, with the transition period to negotiate details of the agreement extended to the end of the year.

And if both sides fail to reach an agreement, Britain will have to exit without an agreement, a scenario that many describe as terrifying, and the Bank of England had previously expected that this option would have economic consequences similar to the outcome of World War II.

Boris Johnson appeared more confident on Friday during a session of voting on the law that puts an end to the Brexit maze, and appeared to be trying to deliver a message to his constituents that he was the man who kept his promises without delay, but in return he called for national unity to get past the exit phase of the European Union.

In spite of the reassurances he sent to the British interior and his European partners, there are still fears that Johnson will resort to the option of leaving without an agreement, especially after recent British media reports that the Conservative leader has returned this option to the table to put more pressure on the Europeans.

It is expected that the beginning of next January will witness the last discussions on the exit plan, before the European Parliament votes on it. European leaders have shown no opposition to the new plan, which means that it can be easily passed across all Brussels institutions.

The next most difficult
Perhaps the British Prime Minister has succeeded in achieving a goal that followed for months, which is to ensure his country's exit from the European Union, but his task is getting more complicated during the next stage, in order to reach a trade agreement that guarantees his country good dealings with the European market.

Professor of international relations, Gilbert Al-Ashqar, suggests that "the coming is the most difficult for the Johnson government," and the first challenge facing the government is answering the question "Will there be an agreement with or without an agreement?", Especially with a significant base in the Conservative Party that wants a complete break with the European Union, and tends to To the position of Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit Party, "Johnson will have to satisfy this segment because it contributed to his electoral success, but without neglecting the economic bill."

According to this analysis, Johnson should "respond to the political increases being practiced by supporters of the rupture with Europe," especially since these people are promoting that leaving without an agreement will save the UK tens of billions.

Al-Ashqar, a professor at the Institute of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London, believes that many Brexit supporters in Britain "support a soft exit, and this makes the British government obligated to reach an agreement", in addition to the economic factor "so the interest of the financial district in London is to keep channels The investment is open between the two parties so that the British capital's position as a global financial center is not damaged.

The British academic compares the agreement previously presented by former British Prime Minister Theresa May to the agreement that Johnson passed, to conclude that what the latter presented "is worse because he accepts the issue of maritime borders and this is what made the Europeans comfortable because Johnson showed flexibility in accepting many conditions European. "

Al-Ashqar expects that the British government will exit the European Union by agreement by the end of 2020, while the exit scenario without an agreement "has become a past and cannot be bet", he said.

The eye on America
Political analyst Mohamed Abu El-Enein concludes a major result of the recent British elections, as he believes that it has shown beyond any doubt that there is a majority "that wants to leave the European Union, which makes passing the law in parliament in response to this popular mood."

The writer and researcher residing in Britain implements the details of the law, which was passed by Parliament, to say that "it was not without talking about preserving workers' rights as they were before, and also did not make any obligations regarding safety standards for products and food goods."

Far from the image of the victor that Johnson tries to appear in, Abu Al-Enein sees the Conservative leader “in front of a real dilemma,” for trying to reach a trade agreement with the European Union, and at the same time making another agreement with the United States, “and this is a difficult equation to achieve because safety standards And it was health that originally caused the collapse of trade negotiations between the European Union and the United States. "

By reading the details of the new legislation, Abu Al-Enein sees "there is something great to be prepared for," referring to the signing of a trade agreement with America, a possible agreement that US President Donald Trump described as "the largest in history", and so Johnson insisted on deleting many of the pledges That might hinder negotiations with the US administration, says the political analyst.

Abu Al-Enein pointed to the presence of "a trend within the Conservative Party calling for toughening with the European Union", which increases pressure on Johnson who wants to keep Europe's trade doors open to his country's companies, so that the economic factor remains the determinant of his movements in the next stage.