• Electoral vigil in the United Kingdom. The advantage of conservatives is reduced

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12 December 2019Today the United Kingdom goes to the polls for early legislative elections, decisive for Brexit and future relations between London and Brussels. The latest polls indicate a contraction of voting intentions for conservatives and a revival of the Labor party, but everything points to a victory for the Tories of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. How wide this victory seems to be the main unknown on the electoral vigil, with the new data that does not exclude a parliament without an absolute majority ("hung parliament"): for Johnson it would be a setback to say the least.

Yougov's latest update assigns conservatives 43% of voting intentions, which would translate into 339 seats out of the 650 of the House of Commons, with Jeremy Corbyn's Labor on the rise, 34% and 231 seats. However, the margin of error could lower the Tories seats to 311, so no absolute majority. The British prime minister, who has called these early elections to overcome the Brexit parliamentary stalemate and who has had to accept three times a postponement of the exit from the EU, points to a clear parliamentary majority that will allow him to pull the plug from Brussels on January 31st.

The Tories are already the most represented party in the House of Commons - 298 seats, followed by Labor with 243 seats - but with the elections of 2017 they lost the majority, forced therefore to a not easy alliance with the Dup, the unionists of Ireland of the North, which last October withdrew their support because they were against the new Brexit agreement. Johnson then expelled 22 rebel deputies who voted together with the opposition in September to avoid a Brexit without an agreement with the EU. Hence, for the premier, the bet of new elections, aiming to take back the last mile of the process of separation from the European Union and to cut the moorings on January 31st.

"In light of the model we cannot exclude a parliament in the balance," said YouGov director Anthony Wells. According to the opinion poll institute, for the Liberal Democratic party (LibDem) it intends to vote for 12% of those consulted, which would bring 15 seats, while the Brexit Party would stop at 3%, as would the Greens. Three percent also for the Scottish Nationalist Party (43 seats out of 59 assigned to Scotland). Northern Ireland elects 18 deputies and in the wake of the compromise accepted for Brexit, Dup is likely to fall sharply.

Plaid Cymru's Welsh separatists should get 4 of the 40 seats available to Wales. England takes the other 533 seats.

An unknown factor in the outcome of the vote is represented by the "tactical vote" that could see the preferences in individual circumscriptions conveyed over who can defeat the conservative candidate. But the trick, as long as it takes hold, is not easy to apply, given that in several cases it is not clear which challenger should bet on. The Lib Dems - strenuously opposed to exiting the EU - have not accepted a pact of resistance with the Labor party and could intercept many anti-Brexit votes. According to several analysts, around 50 constituencies are to be considered as completely open.

In BoJo, as the London prime minister is nicknamed, the 2017 elections - when then-premier Theresa May had called early elections to strengthen the conservative front, getting exactly the opposite - remind us that it is better not to trust the polls too much. And if Brexit has been at the center of the electoral campaign, the issue of the National Health System - the NHS - has also held its own, a strong argument for Labor, which promises an extra 26 billion pounds by 2024 to strengthen health in crisis .

Only on Monday, a photo of a four-year-old boy lying on the floor in a hospital ward, resting on a pile of clothes and covered by a coat waiting for doctors, embarrassed Boris Johnson, who tried in vain to evade press questions in this regard. Jeremy Corbyn immediately took advantage of this, declaring that conservatives "have had nine years to finance the NHS properly. A child to be cared for left on the ground is a shame for British society."

The Labor leader, for his part, is accused of not having done much, indeed, against the anti-Semitism that is spreading in his party. An issue that will probably affect the vote, especially after the resounding attack by British chief rabbi Ephraim Mirvis, who de facto advised not to vote for Labor, calling Corbyn "not fit" to lead the government.