The game of military bases in northern Syria .. Conflict of influence and the entanglement of forces and interests

Obstacle of Ahmad

Turkey's October 9 declaration of the start of the "spring of peace" military operation to establish a safe area deep in Syrian territory and expel Kurdish units from its southern border marked a new turn in the course of events in the targeted area for more than a month, which may confuse the competing forces in a conflict. Influence and control, amid the intertwined factors of interests and calculations between the three main players the United States, Russia and Turkey.

Almost that process began until US forces (supporting the SDF and its backbone Kurdish People's Protection Units) began to withdraw from some military bases scattered deep inside the targeted area of ​​Turkey, but this did not last long as Washington pressured Ankara to rescue its retreating Kurdish allies. In the face of the Turkish attack with a cease-fire agreement gives a period of days for the withdrawal of Kurdish units from the region later extended to other days in light of the American reluctance in its implementation.

The ambiguity of Washington's stance - vis-à-vis its Turkish and Kurdish "enemy allies" - prompted the Kurdish side to open a channel of negotiation with the regime of Bashar al-Assad, culminating in an agreement to stand before the Turkish tide with Russian blessing.

On the other hand, Ankara resorted to Moscow, which took advantage of the situation and offered it understandings to keep the Kurdish units away from the border and conduct joint Turkish-Russian patrols. Thus, the Turkish extension, if only temporarily, which was expected to reach the Iraqi border along a length of 480 km and a depth of 30 km, is the size of the safe area that Turkey has defined east of the Euphrates River.

In light of these developments, Washington was quick to announce that it had previously withdrawn from northern Syria to reposition its forces in the region, and even returned to some bases that had withdrawn from it earlier and reinforced others. These steps justified the need to protect Syrian oil wells and not fall into the hands of the Syrian regime or Russia, which accused Washington of stealing this oil.

In light of Turkish-Russian disagreements, contradicting statements about the withdrawal of Kurdish units from the Syrian border with Turkey between Moscow's assertion and Ankara's denials two days ago and coinciding with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington and his meeting with his counterpart Donald Trump, Russia announced Thursday the sudden and rapid establishment of a new military base In the city of Qamishli, where Kurdish units and the Syrian regime share control (deep inside the targeted area of ​​Turkey).

With this latest development, Moscow may be redrawing the map of control again after taking over some military bases and points evacuated by Washington over the past weeks in the north and northeast of Syria.

American positioning
It began practically on Syrian soil with military bases and points to support Kurdish units in 2015, taking control of ISIS-dominated areas.
Even before the "spring of peace", US forces were deployed in 23 military bases and checkpoints, home to about 2,000 troops.

US military positions in Syria before the Spring of Peace are as follows:
• Five sites in Hasakah governorate (northeast) scattered in Rmeilan, Al-Wazir, Tal Baidar, Sawamah Al-Khair and Shadadi areas

• Four in Deir Ezzor (east) are scattered in the areas of oil age, Konko natural gas field, Jafra and Tanq oil and natural gas fields.

• Five in Raqqa (Northeast) scattered in the areas of Tabqa and Hawa Hawa and islands and sugar factory and Ain Issa.

• Five sites in Ain al-Arab (Kobani) of Aleppo governorate (north) scattered in the areas of ruins of love and Sabbath and Jalabiya and Mashta Noor and Sreen.

• Three in Manbej of Aleppo governorate (north) scattered in the areas of Saidia, Dadat and Silos.

• Al-Tanf base, which includes US and coalition forces in southern Syria, with the desert triangle border with Jordan and Iraq.

According to Turkish and local Syrian media sources, US forces withdrew from 16 military bases and points during the "spring of peace", starting from Manbij, through the eyes of Arabs and Raqqa to Hasakeh.

Despite the withdrawal of US forces from all bases and points in Raqqa, Manbij and Ain al-Arab, it maintained its presence in the oil-rich Deir Ezzor, and its bases in the oil fields in Hasakeh.

It withdrew from the bases and points of Tal al-Baidar, the good morning silos and the minister in al-Hasakah, the class and the Hawa Hawa and the islands, and the sugar factory and Ain Issa in Raqqa, the ruins of love and Jalabiya and Sabbath, and Mashta Noor and Sreen in Ain al-Arab, in addition to Saidia and Dadat, and silos in Manbij.

Days before the spring of peace, US forces evacuated four checkpoints on the border with Turkey, but the US military returned to six military bases and points after the Turkish operation ceased as US forces returned to all of their bases in Hasakah and Sarin, south of Ain al-Arab, but later withdrew. It returned its troops to the Jazra base in Raqqa, and sent a few soldiers to protect the sugar plant base at a time when it never returned to Manbij.

According to local sources and official Turkish media, the United States began this month to build two bases in Deir Ezzor, and send reinforcements to the strength of between 250 and 300 soldiers, in addition to mechanisms, armored vehicles and rocket launchers.

US forces are also preparing to station in two new military bases in the province of al-Hasakah - which already has five bases - in an area near the oil fields.

During the past few days, according to local Syrian sources, two US military convoys crossed into Syrian territory through the Yarubiya crossing from Iraq, entered the area of ​​Qamishli, where the first convoy was stationed in Qahtaniya, 6 km from the Turkish border, and American soldiers started work on building a base in the town. East of the city of Qamishli and includes oil fields.

The second convoy arrived in the village of Hemo, west of Qamishli, about 5 km from the Turkish border. The two areas where US forces are stationed are located within the belt of Turkish and Russian joint patrols.

Thanks to the points and military bases that will be stationed later, US forces will be able to extend control over the oil fields and provide security in them, and also strengthen their presence on the Turkish border with Syria, where the two bases to be established from each other about 35 km, and therefore may be American forces in the path Joint Russian-Turkish periodicals.

Russian deployment
Russian forces are mainly deployed at the Tartous naval base on the Mediterranean coast and the Hmimim air base in Latakia in the west of the country.Moscow and the Syrian regime signed an agreement in August 2015 granting Russian troops the right to use the Hmimim base at all times for free and indefinitely.

Moscow also controls the Hama military airport (central Syria) and is the base of operations and sorties, and to the south of it Russian forces are deployed at the base of Palmyra military in the Syrian desert in the province of Homs, as well as the airports of Shirat and Tayas, also known as "T4" military in the same province.

The Russian army announced on Thursday a quick and sudden move to deploy helicopters and a surface-to-air missile defense system at a military base in Qamishli in northeastern Syria, near the area where the Americans are based, expanding its deployment from central and western Syria to the northeast.

Moscow said several combat helicopters had arrived at the base, adding that it would provide support to the Russian military police, which is conducting joint patrols with the Turkish army in this sector of the border region of Syria and Turkey.

As part of the race to gain control of the sites and bases evacuated by the Americans, Russian forces rushed to station in seven bases in the area of ​​Barras in the countryside of Ain al-Arab in northern Syria, and the base of Sreen and Saidiya northwest of Manbij.

Russian forces also established other military bases in Raqqa governorate and eastern Aleppo countryside, the first at Tabqa military airport and the second in Ain Issa city north of Raqqa city and on the lines of communication between the forces of "spring of peace" and Kurdish units and the Syrian regime army, while the third was in the 17th Infantry Division located in the northeast and adjacent For the city of Raqqa, and finally base in the village of Sabbath north of Sreen.

Turkish intervention
On February 22, 2015, Turkish forces temporarily relocated the mausoleum of the grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman state Suleiman Shah from his former place in the village of Qara Cossack in the province of Aleppo to the Turkish territory temporarily, and then returned to Syria again in the village of "Eshma", which is only 300 km from Turkey Meters, after the siege of the State Shrine several times threatened to blow it up.

Fifty tanks, 100 vehicles of various military purposes and 572 members of the various military security services took part in the transfer of the mausoleum of Suleiman Shah. They secured the withdrawal of 40 Turkish soldiers from the mausoleum guards.

Turkey initiated the first direct military intervention in the Euphrates Shield operation (August 24, 2016 and March 31, 2017), and Turkish and FSA-backed forces backed by Ankara managed to drive out ISIS fighters and Kurdish units from the border area. Turkish forces took control of the area between Afrin and Manbij, deported the YPG to the east of the Euphrates River and drove IS fighters out of Jarablus, Dabiq and Bab in Aleppo province in northwestern Syria.

Turkish forces in support of the Free Syrian Army subsequently launched Operation Olive Branch between January 20, 2017 and March 24, 2018, during which they took control of towns and villages under the control of the YPG and the Afrin area of ​​Aleppo province in northwestern Syria.

Lastly, Ankara, allied with the Syrian National Army, began Operation Peace Spring on October 9, 2019 and temporarily halted as part of understandings with Washington first and then with Moscow. The aim of the operation was to expel the "Syrian Democratic Forces" - led by the Kurds - as well as the establishment of a safe area of ​​480 km at a depth of thirty kilometers from the border strip east of the Euphrates River to the Iraqi border.

Ankara maintains a number of military bases in the Bab, Jarablus, Azaz and Afrin areas, which are totally under Turkish control. President Erdogan announced his country's intention to establish a number of military checkpoints or bases in the safe area as part of Operation "Spring of Peace" and has already begun to establish some of these points in Ras Al Ain and Tal Abyad, which were controlled by Operation Spring of Peace.

As of 2017, it had established about 12 military checkpoints inside the governorates of Idlib, Hama and Aleppo in agreement with the Russian and Iranian side in order to implement what is known as the de-escalation agreement in the areas that separated the Syrian regime forces from the opposition, but some of these points, such as Mork in Hama countryside, became in areas Controlled by regime forces.

Objectives of different parties
The stated goal of the US military presence in Syria is to fight the Islamic State and support the Kurdish allies to keep their control of the region away from the intervention of the Syrian regime and Russian forces.

But Washington's recently announced goal broadens its military presence to protect the oil wells it controls, apparently more important, the president said.

Washington is also seeking to support Kurdish units and help control thousands of people suspected of belonging to the Islamic State and held by Kurdish units in seven prisons. Families of members of the organization are also being held in three IDP camps.

As for the Russian side, its military presence in Syria is long-term and will extend for decades, according to agreements with the Syrian regime. He announced the beginning of his intervention that his goal was to fight terrorism and to support the Syrian regime to stand up to what he called terrorist groups.

Moscow is pursuing its own interests and those of its ally Assad, which has recently emerged from Moscow's way of investing any withdrawal from Washington to fill the gaps and not allow anyone else to exploit them.

The Russians seek to support the Assad regime to restore sovereignty over territory still controlled by opposition factions or Kurdish units in eastern and northern Syria.

Ankara's stated aim is to fight "terrorist organizations" such as the state organization and Kurdish units, which Ankara also classifies as terrorist and an extension of the PKK.

Turkey wants to clear the border area of ​​the YPG, and looks at the issue of some 2 million of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees it currently hosts on its territory, hoping to be resettled within the territory within the planned "safe zone" - a fertile plain that once served The bread basket of Syria, unlike the arid desert areas to the south.

Given the overlap in the areas of control and different objectives, the former parties find themselves in the position of dealing compelled in the minefield of northern Syria, by recalculating it while maintaining room for maneuver to dispel the fears of other parties, and to protect their interests and to avoid direct collision or at least the use of local allies to do the job If necessary.