Seeking a compromise: will constitutional reforms be able to dampen protests in Iraq

The Iraqi authorities announced the start of preparations for a national dialogue to review the country's political system of governance and its constitution, as well as electoral legislation.

According to the website of the President of Iraq, on the eve of President Barham Saleh, Prime Minister Adel Abd al-Mahdi, Speaker of the Parliament Mohammed Al-Halbusi and Chairman of the Supreme Judicial Council Fayk Zidan held a meeting during which the latest developments in the country were discussed.

Representatives of the republic’s branches of government declared their firm commitment to prosecuting those responsible for the excessive use of force against peaceful demonstrators. As stated in a statement issued following the meeting, peaceful popular protest is a legitimate movement for the reforms that the country needs after decades of tyranny, war and corruption.

• Iraqi President Barham Salih
• Reuters
• © Carlo Allegri

It is reported that law enforcement and judicial authorities have already launched a series of investigations of corruption crimes, the investigation should be conducted without taking into account political and family ties - no one should evade punishment if the court finds him guilty.

“We have also begun drafting a new election law that will ensure fair competition in elections, help attract competent candidates who are in line with the ideas and beliefs of voters, and reduce party monopolization, in which officials hold office for long periods of time, preventing non-partisan candidates from being elected as a result of which the latter could not participate in political life, ”the statement reads on the president’s website.

Earlier similar promises were made by Iraqi President Barham Saleh in his address to the people. The politician agreed to hold early elections, and also announced the development of amendments to the electoral law and the formation of a new election commission.

As Saleh explained, the authorities have already “launched a continuous work process” to draft a new election law.

“The Election Commission will be replaced by a new independent commission, which will include judges and professional lawyers. This commission will be distant from politics, and party quotas will not apply to it, ”the politician noted.

As the deputy chairman of the Council of Representatives of the Parliament of Iraq, Bashir Haddad, previously told the media, the committee that will be involved in the development of the project will include 18 people representing the interests of different ethnic and religious groups. The commission has four months to develop amendments to the country's main law, after which the document will be submitted to parliament and then to a popular referendum.

Fragile Alliance

The protests began in Iraq on October 1, people took to the streets, demanding that the authorities take measures against corruption, unemployment and the deterioration of living conditions. In addition, the protesters put forward political demands, calling for a reform of the power system.

Demonstrators demanded the resignation of the government of Abd al-Mahdi and the holding of early parliamentary elections.

Indeed, the economic situation in Iraq, which has survived more than one destructive war in recent decades, remains challenging. According to a study by Transparency International, in terms of corruption, Iraq is at the end of 2018 at 168th place in the world ranking. This is one of the worst indicators. The youth unemployment rate reaches approximately 16.5% - mostly young people and took to the streets of the republic with protests. Iraqis under 30 years of age account for approximately 70% of the total population.

• Elections in Iraq
• Reuters
• © Thaier al-Sudani

According to experts, the protesters were not limited to economic requirements, the demonstrators also demanded to reduce the participation of neighboring Iran in the life of the country. Protesters even tried to attack the Iranian consulate in Karbala. About ten people were injured during the attack, three attackers were killed, media reported.

In the first elections after the liquidation of the Islamic State * in Iraq, representatives of Shiite political parties won. The coalition Sairun (Going Forward), led by a Shiite politician and preacher Muktada al-Sadr, gained the most votes. The second place was then taken by the Fatah (Victory) coalition led by the commander of the Shiite militant Badr organization, Hadi al-Amiri.

Interestingly, many Iraqi Shiites also joined the protests. The leader of the Sairun parliamentary bloc, Muktada al-Sadr, in early October called on the government to resign.

“I also call for early and fair elections under the supervision of the international community. We cannot remain silent with all these sacrifices and bloodshed, ”the politician said.

According to experts, despite close historical and religious ties, Iraqi Shiites cannot be considered absolutely loyal to Iran - the Shiite community in Iraq has its own political subjectivity and has its own leaders who are far from always ready to correlate their actions with the position of Tehran.

As a professor at Moscow State University, an expert on the Middle East Alexander Vavilov explained in a conversation with RT, the protest of a part of the Shiite community is explained very simply - Shiites are also tired of the unsettled life in the country, despite the fact that the Shiite bloc is in power.

“As for the accusations made against Iran, we should not forget that the countries have not only positive shared memories, but also negative ones - there have been different episodes throughout the history of the Iraq and Iran neighborhood,” the expert recalled.

According to the assistant professor of the Institute of Social Sciences of the RANEPA, orientalist Sergei Demidenko, the readiness of many Shiites to support the protests may be due to the presence of some unspoken agreement between the leaders of the Shiite and Sunni communities.

“There have already been precedents in the recent history of Iraq when the Sunnis and Shiites tried to come forward as a united front - for example, when it was necessary to fight the Islamic State. However, such alliances are quite fragile, they are temporary, and then everything returns to normal again, ”the expert explained in a comment to RT.

This is natural in a situation where a weak state cannot protect citizens who feel safe only in faith-based groups, Demidenko added.

• Parliament of iraq
• AFP

Burnt by the war

Earlier, the spiritual leader of Iraqi Shiites, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, in his sermon warned of the risk of "civil conflict, chaos and destruction" if security forces and paramilitary groups resort to suppressing protests.

By early November, the number of victims was in the hundreds - as stated on November 8, the official representative of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Rupert Colville, during the protests in Iraq, more than 270 people were killed.

“The exact data on the victims can be much higher. Most suffered from the use of military weapons by security forces and armed people, which many described as private groups of militias, as well as from the unnecessary, disproportionate or improper use of less lethal weapons, such as tear gas, ”Colville added.

Experts' forecasts as to whether the Iraqi authorities can calm an indignant society and find a compromise diverge.

According to Alexander Vavilov, it is quite possible to develop and implement fair norms in the electoral law and constitution.

“This task is quite feasible and solvable. A country cannot endlessly remain in unrest and unrest. Iraq must continue to live and go along the normal path of development, therefore, the proposal of the Iraqi leadership can be implemented through joint efforts. The government is ready to follow the path of national dialogue and listen to the opinion of citizens, ”the expert said.

According to Vavilov, all Iraqi parties will now strive to find a compromise, because the country is tired of constant wars and conflicts.

However, according to Sergei Demidenko, ensuring equal representation of all Iraqi forces in power is very difficult due to the confessional composition of the country, where 70% of the population are Shiites.

“That is why today there are quotas according to which the representative of the Shiite community takes the post of prime minister, the Kurd becomes the president, and the Sunni always takes the chair of the speaker of parliament. This is a fragile confessional balance. The initiatives voiced by the authorities are aimed only at stopping the protests. But in reality they will not bring any changes. This is most likely a declaration, because societies such as Iraq are difficult to stabilize through legislative reform. Until natural integration processes take place in the country, in society, something is unlikely to change, ”the expert summed up.

* “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.