According to the inflation report, economic losses in this case could amount to 0.6% of GDP in 2020 and 0.9% of GDP in 2021.
“However, alternative scenarios are also being considered, which provide for both increased and reduced volumes of transit,” the NBU said.
They noted that due to gas transit Ukraine annually receives about $ 3 billion, however, if it is stopped, there will be risks for related sectors of the economy.
As indicated in the document, Russia is "commissioning bypass gas pipelines," which, according to the authors of the report, in terms of total capacity, "are able to completely replace the Ukrainian gas transmission system in the coming years."
Earlier, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Dmitry Sologub said that taking into account Gazprom’s contractual obligations for gas supplies to Russia, it will have to be pumped through Ukraine in 2020.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said at a meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev that the company had notified Ukraine of the need to resolve litigation before entering into a new contract.
As Miller pointed out, if an independent gas transmission operator and an independent regulator are not created in Ukraine by January 1, the only way will be to extend the existing contract in the new conditions.