- Tweeter
republish
Chinese President Xi Jinping received his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro this Friday, October 25, for his first visit to China. Where are the relations between the two BRICS countries in the midst of the Sino-US trade war?
Many big words in Xi Jinping's mouth. " China's policy of developing relations with Brazil at strategic heights and long-term horizons remains unchanged, assured the Chinese number one shaking hands with the Brazilian head of state in the Great Hall of People in Beijing this Friday in Beijing. Mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries will have a better future. "
The statement of the Chinese president is all of circumstance. His country seeks to cushion the impact of the trade war with Washington. Even if Phase 1 of a trade agreement could be signed - it's a lot of if - in mid-November between Xi and Donald Trump, the American surtaxes planned to apply in December are not canceled yet. It is always good to find ways to bypass. Brazil is one of them.
" China wants to import more high-value products from Brazil, which meet the needs of the Chinese market ," said Xi Jinping, quoted by state television CCTV. According to the joint statement to the two presidents, Brazil and China hope to " promote a diversified bilateral growth of agricultural exports " through agreements between the customs and the authorities in charge of agriculture in the two countries.
Bolsonaro's "China bashing" in silence
These exchanges of good intentions can make you smile when you know the liabilities of Jair Bolsonaro on China. During the presidential campaign, the far-right candidate adopted a "Trumpian" chorus of criticism of China's land purchase or participation in major industries in Brazil: " The Chinese do not come to buy in Brazil, repeated the future president at length of electoral meetings . They are buying Brazil! "
Today, Jair Bolsonaro does not talk like that anymore. Exports or imports, China is already the main trading partner of his country, according to the figures of the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce. Bilateral trade volume was about $ 100 billion in 2018 and China's investment in Brazil is estimated at $ 60 billion.
In the midst of a trade war with the United States, imports of US agricultural products into China have fallen from $ 19.5 billion in 2017 to just $ 9 billion in 2018. This has created a deficit of key products. like soy. Brazil has benefited from it: it is now the largest source of soybean imports for China, according to Trase, a firm specializing in agricultural data.
Brazil, still a beneficiary of the Sino-US trade war?
Yet " this trend is changing, says Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière, economist and researcher at Asia21 (Futuribles). First, on September 11, Beijing decided to lift taxes on some US imports, including soybeans. Second, China's swine fever has decimated its herds by 30-40%, significantly reducing soybean requirements. Brazil will be competing again in a market that will shrink in the next two years. "
Another issue of the trade war for Brazil, the technological battle, especially on 5G. Trump's admirer, Bolsonaro, however, does not have his hands free. For an alliance with America would go against what the business community and the military, who brought the Brazilian president to power, want.
Why ? " Because it would force to ban Huawei, the controversial Chinese digital giant ," says Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière. It would even be a lever used by Washington to support Brazil's bid for the OECD. Brazil's economic and military elites " do not want to wait to get 5G," the economist says. Huawei already has a research center in São Paulo. Former President Dilma Roussef was spied on by NASA, so when told that Huawei is a threat, they smile ! "
Conflicting messages
Problem: If it has abandoned anti-Chinese rhetoric, the Brazilian government multiplies contradictory statements that hinder its representatives in China and disrupt trade and investment. Will Chinese companies be allowed to bid on 5G? Huawei will not be excluded, said first vice president Hamilton Mourão, a former general favorable to pragmatism with Beijing. At the same time, Foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo, very anti-Chinese, said the case was still under review.
According to some observers , it appears that the military is gaining influence in the Bolsonaro administration. In February, the president appointed Mourão to head a commission to oversee relations with China.
Tensions between Beijing and Washington have also mounted a notch on Latin America. At issue, China's decision to include the region in the " New Silk Roads ", the global investment project in infrastructure revived by Xi Jinping in 2013. Of the 33 Latin American states, 19 have joined the Chinese initiative, mostly small countries in Central America and the Caribbean. The Brazilian government has been cautious so far.