Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abe Ahmed made headlines around the world when he made a surprise move last month to resolve the outstanding problems between his country and Eritrea, which began more than two decades ago. Eritrea was liberated from Ethiopia in a 1993 poll, after which the two countries engaged in a bloody conflict that is believed to have left some 100,000 dead between 1998 and 2000.

The village of Badme, which has only symbolic value, was granted to Eritrea by an international border demarcation committee, formed under a 2002 peace agreement. But Ethiopia broke the agreement and insisted on refusing to hand it over for 20 years. When Abe announced on June 5 that he was ready to give the village of Badme to Eritrea, without any economic preconditions, as requested by the previous government, it was an end to the conflict. Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki dealt with a conciliatory spirit with Ethiopia when he sent a delegation to Addis Ababa, ending a rejection of any dialogue with Ethiopia 18 years ago, as long as its soldiers were on its territory.

On 8 July Abe spent an entire day in Asmara, where he was warmly welcomed by Isaias Afewerki. The next day, the two men announced that diplomatic and economic ties had resumed. Although little detail has emerged, Isaias briefly hinted at Abe's difficulties in his country and the need for a coordinated response between the two sides.

In view of the demarcation process between the two countries, peace no longer requires, in principle, the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Eritrea. Unfortunately, this is the most difficult part of the matter, for reasons unrelated to President Abe or Eritrea. Although it seems shocking to the outside observer, there is a clear reason why the two leaders suddenly cooperate. The two men have united against a common enemy, the Tigraya People's Liberation Front.

Abe came to power in April after a wave of rebellion, in which streets were closed and many shops destroyed. Hundreds of thousands rushed to the streets against the ruling authority, a small group of ex-liberation fighters who have been in power since 1991. But this development has resulted in the accumulation of wealth and military power in the hands of an ethnic minority, the Tigraya, whose front liberated Ethiopia from the communist rule of Drage in 1991.

Experience and skill

Earlier this year, the Tigraya People's Liberation Front's adherence to power in Ethiopia brought the country to the brink of collapse, when large ethnic groups led by the Oromo and Reds blocked roads leading to Addis Ababa in protest. That is why the coalition government had to release thousands of jails and allow Abe, the Oromo leader, to become prime minister. Abe proved to be a qualified and experienced person, and he was moving quickly to dismantle the Tigraya People's Liberation Front's hold on power.

Isaias had expressed concern about the NDF when he announced his intention to send a peace delegation to Addis Ababa in a June 20 speech. Isaias fought side by side with the Tigraya People's Liberation Front during the struggle for liberation against the communist Dreg, but as is the case with almost half of the Eritreans, Isaias himself is a Tigrayan. But the violent war that resulted from Ethiopia's occupation of Eritrea's border areas destroyed all the solidarity that existed between the two sides, and left Eritrea in a state of emergency since 1998.

Reasons to fear

Abe has more than one cause for fear of the front. Its members are the main obstacles to political reform in Ethiopia, and since coming to power he has explicitly removed their grip from power. He reduced the military's authority by abolishing the state of emergency, abolished laws that allow security forces to treat and arrest opponents as terrorists, and expelled senior security and intelligence officers, most of them ethnic Tigrayans.

Abe is working hard and quickly to alleviate the threat of the RUF, before the RUF leaders gather against him, but in recent days RUF has suffered from a leadership vacuum as hard-line leaders compete for power, and the Tigrayas have increased their fears of retaliation by other large Ethiopian tribes as a result of the actions of their leaders. Abe was able to fire many senior RUF commanders, including General Tekleberhan and Dirigai, from the notorious Security Information Agency. He went to the radio station and described himself as an army representative and appeared to call for a coup. He called Abe's government "an enemy force" and a "threat to the federal system of the state."

Stir up confusion

Gen. Tekleberhan is unlikely to persuade the military to revolt against the government publicly, but it can undoubtedly exploit some parties to create confusion. The attempted assassination of Abe on June 26 was one such confusion that could occur, and the deputy police chief was arrested, along with 30 other police and government officials.

In fact, Abe's moves, including his proposals for Eritrea, and the expulsion of key generals, are all provocations of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (PFLP), and may backfire negatively. Ethiopia's allies, especially Washington, must monitor developments there carefully and must act to ensure that the situation does not spiral out of control. If the TPLF militants use their influence on the military to seize power illegally through assassination, ethnic unrest or coups, Ethiopia could face civil war.

Unfortunately, Washington and Brussels are not much interested in the events in Ethiopia. The Trump administration is now focusing on everything but Africa. In addition to praising Abe's reforms, the White House and the European Union seem unaware of the struggle for life or death for power in Ethiopia. The United States and the European Union must send a clear message to the Tigraya Liberation Front explaining to its leaders that any attempt to seize power will never be tolerated, and Ethiopia will not receive any assistance anymore. Such a message could assure militants that they have few options and that Washington is watching them.

But if history is to be learned, Washington would prefer not to repeat the mistake. Ultimately, Ethiopia's vast security apparatus is Washington-made. Millions of dollars have been spent to increase the TPLF's capabilities to fight the terrorists, who were apparently in Somalia, but funding was being used against Ethiopian "terrorists" who were pro-democracy activists. There is little doubt that US diplomats would prefer an attractive leader like Abe to be their man in Addis Ababa, but it is doubtful that the Pentagon, which gladly overlooked Ethiopia's long occupation of Eritrea, its invasion of Somalia, and its shocking violations of human rights. Rights, it would risk angering its most important ally against terrorism in the Horn of Africa. This means that it will support Abe, but it will maintain relations with the Tigraya Front, especially with the Aghazas Special Forces (fully formed by Tigraya soldiers selected for their absolute loyalty to the Tigraya People's Liberation Front) that provided support for U.S. strikes against terrorists in Somalia.

Risks

There are some risks for Eritrea as well. Given the Tigraya's control of the military chain of command, it is unclear whether Abe will be able to withdraw Ethiopian troops from the border with Eritrea. Therefore, even if Isaias and Abyei form a close alliance, Eritrea will find itself in an embarrassing situation, as it has declared peace with Ethiopia, and at the same time has to defend its borders against the Tigraya aggression, and the aggression may be in the form of a close alliance with Djibouti, which will lose a lot. From the trade of its ports if the Eritrean-Ethiopian border opens.

In addition, any peace that does not allow Eritrea to disband its soldiers comprehensively and expeditiously from the national service program is a source of political problems for Isaias. After 20 years of war, the Eritrean people are hungry for political stability, including the massive demobilization of the Eritrean army.

Accept risk

Faced with the threat of civil war in Ethiopia, if reforms in the country fail, Eritrea has no choice but to accept that risk and throw all its weight in support of Abe, but now the clock is ticking for reforms, and it is unclear how willing the Eritrean government is, after all. These years I have experienced in wars and crises, for this reform.

It is important for policymakers in both countries to understand that this rush to peace is a tactical issue, as long as both Abe and Isaias remain under existential threats by the Tigraya People's Liberation Front, which makes the two men overlook many of their differences.

In the short term, there will be a risk of this rapid rush to peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as this will lead to the withdrawal of tens of thousands of Ethiopian soldiers from fighting positions on the border with Eritrea, and therefore their fate remains unknown. They could ignore orders to withdraw from Eritrean territory. If they do withdraw, there is a question about whether they can be demobilized or redeployed to other locations. In fact, peace with Eritrea will result in a surplus of military capabilities at a time when the chain of command will be highly unreliable, and rational efforts to loosen the Tigraya People's Liberation Front's grip on power are still understood by many people. Tigaiirai, is similar to the de-Baathification process in Iraq in 2003 that led to a revolution.

At present, the Tigraya Liberation Front militants may remain under control when threatening popular anger. But they can be in a desperate situation that leads them to do reckless work. At the same time, improved relations with Eritrea, as well as a strong army that can be deployed in the Tigraya Liberation Front's backyard, help balance forces by constantly reminding the hardliners of the LTTE how many enemies they are waiting for.

Bronwyn Bruton is director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington

- Given control

Tigraya Front on

Chain of command

Military in Ethiopia,

It is unclear

Whether Abby

will be able to

He withdrew his troops from

The border with Eritrea.

- President Donald Trump's administration is currently focused on

Everything except Africa. And add to the praise

On Abe's reforms, it looks like the White House and the Union

The European is unaware of the struggle of life or death

For power in Ethiopia.