The Brexit Agreement, in the absence of the final approval of Belfast and London

To understand why the drums that anticipate a possible agreement in Brussels have substance and are not mere background noise, three factors must be addressed . The first , that a few days ago Michel Barnier requested at 27 permission to get into what is known as 'the tunnel', an ultra-discreet mode of negotiation with his British colleagues in which neither the ambassadors and community Sherpas are up to date on each step that occurs. The second, that the leaders of the Norwegian DUP are nervous and belligerent, since the possibility of agreement is directly proportional to the discomfort of the formation. The third is that European diplomats and officials have been taking iron days away from the concessions that will have to be made in order to reach an understanding. Suddenly, everything seven months ago was impossible, non-negotiable, anathema, is on the table, including the possibility that the famous backstop of Northern Ireland, the safeguard clause to avoid hard borders and ensure respect for the Good Friday Agreement , be a temporary and not permanent element.

This Wednesday was a day of tension and movements in the community capital. It dawned with optimism, with the feeling that the endless negotiation would be closed at any moment. Barnier said it first to the commissioners, said the Irish Leo Varadkar at noon and repeated in the afternoon Emmanuel Macron, the 'bad cop'. All with 'buts', conditions and nuances, warning that there are important and complicated fringes, but drawing a main scenario: discuss it at the political level at last at the Summit of Heads of State and Government held this Thursday and Friday in Brussels

But all eyes were far away. In London, Dublin and Belfast, where the game is played . "If David Frost is given permission, we close the text in a few hours at most. The ideas are defined in practice, the mandate is missing," says a community source.

A mantra is always repeated in the EU: nothing is closed until everything is closed. This is, applied in the practical case, that the issue of Irlandas and backstop can only be resolved if the rest of the problematic issues are also resolved: the type of customs union in which the islands will remain, the question of VAT and merchandise controls or what is called 'consent' . That is, who can have the last word if the regulatory and political framework that will be fixed in the Exit Agreement will be broken in the future after the transition period, which begins its signature and will end in December 2020.

Until very recently, Dublin and Barnier said that the backstop should be remains because it was its very essence. That if once the transition period was over it was activated (and for everyone it was and it is obvious and inevitable that it is activated) it should remain in force until it could be guaranteed that there would be no hard borders, whether it was one, five or ten years .

For example, by signing a full trade agreement with the United Kingdom that would make them unnecessary. May, after seeing how Westminster refused in the round and rejected his proposal, asked at the time to change the clause , allowing it to expire after a certain time, but received a resounding no. Now, a year later, Johnson could have more luck.

After accepting that the coverage of the Single Market and the Customs Union cover only Northern Ireland and not the whole of the north, this possible temporality is no longer taboo and how and when is being discussed. As well as in what legal and political way, de facto and law, articulate a unique situation so that both parties can sing partial victories and respect the best interests of citizens.

The DUP, very uncomfortable, demands to have the opportunity to vote and veto the permanence of the territory in that framework in December 2020. The EU offers that it is rather four or five years later, and that the Northern Ireland assembly does not have the last word in the terms that have been presented, but with certain conditions and nuances. Dublin, after promoting May's fall with its closure, now seems receptive for the first time, if it achieves promises, guarantees and compensation. And that and other details depends on getting to fruition.

Time squeezes a lot. Diplomatic and European sources assume that, at this point, there are only four possible scenarios . First , that a technical agreement be reached that can be articulated in a binding manner and that the heads of State and Government can support this week. But for this the legal text should be completed imminently, pass the revision of 27 capitals, and receive the approval of Barnier and his team before the start of the European Council. If the 27 gave the 'ok' and Johnson too, the ball would go to Westminster, which could be pronounced on Saturday. If they gave the approval, and seeing the precedents that is a lot to suppose, on Sunday there would be a meeting of the Coreper, the ambassadors of the 27 before the EU, and the road would be paved so that the Eurocamara could ratify the agreement before October 31. And that day, consummate an orderly exit.

The second scenario, if there is no legal agreement in the next few hours, but it is very close, is that the European Council would make some kind of "recognition of meeting points and agree that we will continue negotiating. It could give a positive signal," sources explain. diplomatic However, this situation opens up many questions about the following steps and would almost inevitably imply having to agree on a very short technical extension of weeks to finalize the details. Something of difficult digestion in the 'brexiter' world, to which Johnson has sworn and perjured an exit they succeed that day and not later under any circumstances.

The third possibility is that there is no agreement or will be achieved. In that case, Johnson would be obliged, according to the resolutions of his parliament, to automatically request an extension on the 19th, because the deputies have said that leaving without agreement, to the brave ones, is not an option. And it would be up to the 27 to decide whether it is granted or not. It would be strange a refusal, but it is not impossible. And start over.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

• Brexit
• United Kingdom
• European Union

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