The leaders of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik said that Ukraine’s approval of the "Steinmeier formula" opens the way for further self-determination of Donbass. This is stated in a joint statement of two leaders of the people's republics, published on October 2.
“Yesterday, thanks to Russia, Germany and France, Ukraine finally signed the Steinmeier formula, which guarantees the Donbass a special status. Thus, she recognizes the special right of the people of Donbass to independently determine their fate, the statement said. - We ourselves will decide what language to speak, what our economy will be like, how our judicial system will be formed, how our People’s Police will protect our citizens, and how we will integrate with Russia. This is our business, our goal. And we will continue negotiations in Minsk in order to ultimately come to full self-government and self-determination. ”
The heads of the LPR and DPR also commented on the statement of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. Recall, on October 1, he announced the approval by Kiev of the Steinmeier formula, but noted that Ukraine should gain control over the border of Donbass with Russia. In response, Pushilin and Pasechnik bluntly stated that “the Kiev authorities will not get any control over the border” and warned Zelensky against “rash actions,” calling for a direct dialogue with the leadership of the republics.
Stumbling formula
The Steinmeier formula is the mechanism for enacting the law on the special procedure for local self-government in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The author of this idea is considered the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is now the president of this country.
October 1, Vladimir Zelensky said that the Ukrainian side agreed on the text of the Steinmeier formula, which should be implemented in Ukrainian legislation. The next day, October 2, the press secretary of the representative of Kiev at the talks Leonid Kuchma published a document on her Facebook signed by the ex-president of Ukraine - a letter to the OSCE Special Representative Martin Saidik.
It reports that the law on the special status of Donbass on a temporary basis will enter into force at 20:00 local time on the day of early elections to local governments in the region. Then, after the OSCE confirms the legitimacy of their results, the special status regime will become permanent.
The need for granting Donbass special status is also mentioned in the Minsk agreements, signed back in 2015. However, for four and a half years, Kiev sabotaged their implementation. After President Vladimir Zelensky came to power in Ukraine, negotiations on this issue resumed. The result was a document that was agreed on September 18, but until recently, the representative of Kiev refused to put his signature.
In Russia, the approval of the Steinmeier formula was positively received. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, believes that this "will create an appropriate atmosphere for the further implementation of the Minsk agreements."
In turn, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called the event "certainly an important step on the road to implementing the agreements that were reached earlier."
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Heiko Maas, also welcomed the decision of the Ukrainian side, saying that "thereby the door to the Summit of the Norman Four and further stages in the implementation of the Minsk Agreements is open."
In a positive vein, the Steinmeier formulas were also expressed in Paris in Paris.
“France welcomes this progress, which was facilitated by intensive negotiations held in recent weeks within the framework of the so-called Norman format between France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia,” the French Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Revision of Minsk
On October 1, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, announcing the approval of the Steinmeier formula, immediately called for two conditions for its fulfillment. He emphasized that there should not be any “military men” in the territory of Donbass. Also, according to him, the will of the people will be held only after the transfer to Kiev of control over the border of Donbass with Russia.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks during a news conference in Kiev, Ukraine October 1, 2019
- Reuters
- © Valentyn Ogirenko
However, the leaders of the DPR and LPR have already stated that such an interpretation of the signed formula is unacceptable to them. The text, signed by Leonid Kuchma, does not say anything about the transfer to the Ukrainian authorities of control over the border or the demilitarization of the DPR and LPR.
In addition, it is not particularly clear yet what constitutes a “special status” that is promised to Donbass. Zelensky said on Tuesday that the law on “special status”, adopted under Petro Poroshenko, was only valid until December 31 of this year. According to the Ukrainian leader, "there will be a new law that the parliament will develop in close cooperation and public discussion with the public."
The statement of the leaders of the DPR and LPR criticizes the old text of the law. In particular, it is noted that Petro Poroshenko introduced a lot of unacceptable formulations into it. At the same time, the heads of republics argue that the law contains important provisions that cannot be changed. For example, the right of certain regions of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (de facto LPR and DPR) to create their own units of the people's militia is reserved. The document also provides guarantees for amnesty of the parties to the conflict by the people's republics.
The leaders of the DPR and LPR propose to coordinate the provisions of this law with them, otherwise threatening to recognize it as “legally void”. The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov also announced the need for dialogue today, noting that "this part of the Donbass must be heard." The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the trend towards revision of the Minsk agreements by Kiev.
However, the Ukrainian authorities did not signal in any way that they were ready for a dialogue with the self-proclaimed republics.
Moreover, on October 2, the deputy from the party “Servant of the People”, Bogdan Yaremenko, said that his faction and the president want to remove from the law precisely the clauses on amnesty and popular police.
“The law that exists does not suit me personally, because it has a provision on an unconditional amnesty, local police and so on ... Our faction does not want it and President Zelensky does not want it,” the deputy said.
In his Facebook, Yaremenko even stated that "yesterday no one signed anything." According to him, the approval of the formula is not the same as signing, and all that Leonid Kuchma did was only "inform the OSCE representative Martin Saydik in writing that Ukraine was satisfied with the wording agreed upon by the advisers to the heads of state in the Norman format in Minsk on September 1, 2019."
Also, the Rada member emphasized that Ukraine agreed on the Steinmeier formula only for the purpose of holding a meeting in the Norman format.
“The Ukrainian side, unashamedly, says that Steinmeier’s formula is currently needed for one thing - to hold a meeting in the Norman format at the highest level,” said political analyst Vladimir Kornilov in a conversation with RT. “Zelensky really wants this meeting to be held, and even goes for outright deceit both the participants in the Minsk format and their own voters, because what he said at the briefing following the signing of the Steinmeier formula does not correspond to the document itself.”
"Zelensky will retreat"
The signing of the Steinmeier formula has already caused a storm of indignation in Ukraine. Nationalists held a protest rally, accusing Zelensky of betraying the interests of the country. Ex-President Petro Poroshenko called it a “formula of Russian origin” and called for not to “destroy the Ukrainian state.” Even the traditionally loyal Zelensky party “Fatherland” Yulia Tymoshenko called the formula “a threat to the security” of the country and demanded that the president arrange a meeting with the leaders of the factions. The Voice party, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, also joined the president’s criticism. Only the Opposition Platform - For Life supported Zelensky.
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On October 2, the Ukrainian president held a closed meeting with the leaders of the Verkhovna Rada factions. According to its results, the head of the Golos faction, Sergei Rakhmanin, was forced to admit to reporters that "there is no clear state position that we would have heard from authorized persons."
Zelensky also met with representatives of the Servant of the People faction. As a result of this conversation, the representative of the Ukrainian government in the Verkhovna Rada, Irina Vereshchuk, said that "in fact, Steinmeier’s formula does not exist," and so far it’s not about adopting any laws to implement it. Other representatives of the political force assured journalists that there was “no assassination (treason. - RT )” and accused political opponents of trying to rekindle the conflict from scratch.
“Vladimir Zelensky is not sure that he will be able to fulfill all the conditions and reintegrate the Donbass. He is really ready to hold elections next year and grant Donbass a special status. But a lot of the unknown. It all depends on whether society can agree to a compromise. Now there are problems with this, ”a source in the Servant of the People party told RT.
In turn, the interlocutor of RT in the Golos party criticized the position of a significant part of society, including his party members, calling for the rejection of the Minsk agreements.
“A significant part of the population still does not understand that it is time to end the war and that one must be prepared to compromise. In the understanding of many nationalists, the Ukrainian army was supposed to take Donbass by force and punish everyone who supports the DPR and LPR. But this will not happen. Now the situation in Ukraine is very precarious: one wrong step on the part of Zelensky, and Poroshenko and Tymoshenko will take tens of thousands of people to the streets - they already have experience, ”the deputy said.
An RT source in the Batkivshchyna party believes that, under pressure from nationalists, Vladimir Zelensky may even refuse to fulfill his obligations.
“I think that if the protests become critical, then Zelensky will back off,” the deputy expressed his point of view.
Zelensky made a “gift” to Petro Poroshenko, the representative of the European Solidarity Party said.
“All Zelensky’s actions will be examined under a microscope. And since the president is determined, there will be many more reasons for protests. And this is a gift for Poroshenko, who again returned to the information field, ”the source of RT in the party Poroshenko believes.
In turn, a senior representative of the Armed Forces in conversation with RT noted that the Ukrainian military was not ready to withdraw troops in the area of Petrovskoye and Zolotoe settlements (an agreement was reached at the same time as the Steinmeier formula was agreed. - RT )
“We have defended our positions for so long and now must free them. I don’t know what words Zelensky should find in order to reassure the soldier, ”the source said.
Difficult compromise
According to experts, if the Ukrainian authorities really strive to fulfill the obligations that they have undertaken by signing the Minsk Agreements and then the Steinmeier Formula, then direct negotiations with the DPR and LPR cannot be dispensed with.
- Ukrainian servicemen sit on the Armored Personal Carrier (APC) as the column of Ukrainian forces passes near Artemivsk in the Donetsk region on June 9, 2015
- AFP
- © Oleksandr Ratushniak
For example, it is necessary to clarify how to conduct the elections provided for by the formula in the LPR and the DPR on the basis of the Ukrainian constitution and legislation, if the people's republics have de facto their own authorities and their own functioning political systems are formed.
“The adoption of the Steinmeier formula imposes certain obligations on Ukraine: it must adopt a special law on elections in those territories, and the provisions of this law must be agreed with representatives of uncontrolled territories. And then - to recognize the authorities in those territories after the elections, to accept the legitimacy of the OSCE report, ”said Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute for Analysis and Policy Management, in an interview with RT. - As for the unrecognized authorities of the DPR, they will be obliged to coordinate the election law with Ukraine, to adopt and apply the law on special status. They are also obliged to ensure the work of the OSCE and the democratic conditions for holding elections. ”
According to the Ukrainian expert, while the participants in the negotiation process in the Donbass do not show a tendency to compromise and are not ready to give up their positions of principle. There is no common understanding of where to go next.
“Even the harmonization of this formula did not lead to clarity, to the formation of a common understanding between the participants in the negotiation process on the way to implementing the Minsk agreements,” the expert notes.
According to Ruslan Bortnik, the probability of implementing the Minsk Agreements and the return of Donbass to Ukraine today is higher than in 2018 or 2017.
“However, so far this probability is insignificant, about 20%,” the political scientist believes.
According to him, the reasons for this assessment are the negative impact of radicals on the Ukrainian policy and the existence of influence groups interested in continuing the conflict.
Vladimir Kornilov notes that Kiev, Lugansk, and Donetsk “need to find a middle ground and develop a formula for peaceful coexistence.
“For this we need direct negotiations between Kiev and the Donbass - there is no getting around it,” the expert believes.
True, according to him, most likely in the near future Zelensky "will back down," but this does not mean that there is any alternative to direct negotiations.
“Personally, I don’t see the ways of returning Donbass to the state of Ukraine, at least in a federal status, at least in a confederal, even in the status of autonomy, as you like, for the simple reason that they will never forget who bombed their cities in the Donbass,” Kornilov is sure . “More than one generation must grow so that people forget blood, death, and sacrifice.” I can’t imagine how this can be put into practice. But if any agreements at least freeze the conflict, people cease to die, then it will be possible to positively evaluate these steps. ”