Legislative in Austria: scandal or not, the far right still attracts

"They do not care, scandals," storm Monika Salzer. The activist, founder of the Omas gegen Rechts ("grannies against the far right"), does not mince words when she evokes the voters of the extreme right party FPÖ, ousted in May from power in Austria as a result of a corruption scandal. A few days before the legislative elections, she was still demonstrating with her association and other left-wing organizations against the renewal of the coalition between conservatives and far right. But this scenario remains one of the most likely.

The FPÖ is credited with approximately 20% of the votes for the parliamentary elections on Sunday 29th September. A drop, of course, compared to the 26% collected during the previous election in 2017, but quite limited in view of the scandal generated by the leader of this far-right party last May.

A video had then shown Heinz-Christian Strache, president of the FPÖ since 2005 and vice-chancellor for two years, in a villa in Ibiza, proposing to the alleged niece of a Russian oligarch to secretly fund his party, in exchange for public contracts. His resignation followed, followed by all FPÖ ministers, ending nearly 18 months of alliance with the Conservatives.

The FPÖ 'victim' of 'Ibizagate ...

"The 'Ibizagate' has hurt the party, but the FPÖ has been successful in limiting the consequences," analysis Florian Oberhuber, Sora polling institute, "including posing as a victim." Eluding the content of the video, the FPÖ cadors questioned its origin, its timing, to present it as a cabal against their leader.

The latter quickly passed in the background, giving up all his functions in government and in the party. "The FPÖ has directly counter-attacked, from the point of view of communication, it has been very successful," said Julia Partheymüller, researcher in political science at the University of Vienna.

>> To read also: "'Ibizagate': the FPÖ and Russia, special partners for a decade"

On the merits, the scandal did not shock the voters of this formation well anchored in the Austrian political landscape. "It's a shame for Strache because he was pinched, but all political parties have pans," says 55-year-old bank employee Manfred Schneider, interviewed by AFP, summarizing the feeling of many voters FPÖ.

The heart of the electorate of this group was thus little moved by the scandal. "There are a lot of voters who still vote FPÖ When you're critical of the EU, elites, there is no real alternative [to the FPÖ] in Austria," says Julia Partheymüller.

... and the big winners

Credited by around 20% of the vote according to the polls, the far-right party is well placed to form a coalition with the conservative ÖVP party of Sebastian Kurz, the young prodigy of Austrian politics, who in 2017 became chancellor only 31 years.

According to the opinion polls, the list of voters could reach 33 to 35% of the vote, more than 10 points than the Social Democrats, at 22-23%, and better than in 2017 (31.5%).

"The ÖVP is the big winner of Ibizagate," says Julia Partheymüller. Sebastian Kurz set the bar right when he came to power, with the coalition, but also in his speech. And despite his young age, whoever has taken the lead of the powerful conservative party "is seen as more competent". "He managed to convince the disappointed voters and attract them to the ÖVP, by addressing classic themes of the far right as immigration and security," says the researcher.

An appropriation of themes that is not to everyone's taste. "Kurz is as extreme [as the FPÖ] and it's just hidden here," said activist Monika Salzer, who is worried about Austria's right-wing turnaround since 2017.

An "unstable" government partner ?

"His political position to the right of the center corresponds to the current position of voters," said Florian Oberhuber, who also thinks that the scandal of the video of Ibiza will weigh little in Sunday's vote. "Voters do not vote for the past, but for what they hope will happen."

>> To see: "Diving into Austrian far-right corporations"

And according to polls, the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition is one of the most popular variants for Austrians. The far-right party has openly campaigned on this option ("Without us, Kurz will go to the left", warns one of their posters), but the conservative leader was careful not to make a preference and left all the doors open.

"It is not sure that republishing the last coalition is the choice of Sebastian Kurz," says Julia Partheymüller, referring to the tensions within the FPÖ. With the departure of Strache, the party is led by a duo consisting of Norbert Hofer, former unhappy presidential candidate and presentable face of the extreme right, and Herbert Kickl, former Minister of the Interior and accustomed to more aggressive statements . "There is one for each wing of the party," says the researcher, who also sees a sign of potential tensions that would make the FPÖ an "unstable partner" for the ÖVP.

The conservatives, she adds, "will move according to what the party base prefers", which did not necessarily taste the escapades of the FPÖ. The other popular option in the polls is an alliance with the Greens, driven by the ecologist theme during the campaign, and the small liberal party Neos, given respectively at about 12% and 8%. Two formations that meet on several points, among which the probity of the political staff.