Green growth is based on the assumption that global growth (GDP) can be decoupled from utilization of the world's natural resources, thus enabling continued economic growth.

Researchers have now investigated whether there is a scientific basis for this "decoupling hypothesis". The result: There is no empirical evidence to support the occurrence of decoupling on the scale needed to prevent ecological collapse.

Green growth an illusion
And the researchers also see no opportunity to achieve decoupling on a large scale in the future.

"Our study shows that the idea that we can continue to grow and reduce carbon dioxide emissions is an illusion," says Professor Giorgos Kallis, active at the University of Barcelona.

He believes that if we have continued global growth of 3% per year, the economy will be 11 times larger by the end of the century.

- The economy cannot grow that much without using fossil fuels and without irreversibly damaging the climate.

Decreased growth
The study finds that in order to reach both the 2-degree target and the 1.5-degree target, growth must decrease.

- Energy and resource use must decrease dramatically. We need to reorganize our economies and societies if they are to be sustainable, while GDP falls or slows down completely.

Political decision-makers' assumption that sufficient decoupling can be achieved through increased resource efficiency worries Giorgos Kallis. The researchers urge politicians to reduce both economic production and consumption, as well as resource efficiency. This is to enable a good life for all people within the ecological boundaries of the planet.

Politically difficult
But what political leader can go to elections with promises of economic downturn? If this leader were to be elected against all odds, it would be a pretty pointless sacrifice on a national level if not all other countries do the same. In order to limit climate change, collective action is needed at a global level.

"The world's leaders should be ready, because the alternative, to continue on the path we have embarked on, will lead to disaster," says Giorgos Kallis.

The study was published in the New Political Economy