Peanut farmer Jimmy Carter became the 39th president of the United States in 1977. But it was only four years for him in the White House. In 1980, he stopped US grain exports to the Soviet Union as punishment for the Russians invading Afghanistan. American farmers saw the grain price plummet, became furious, and instead turned to Republican candidate in the 1980 election, Ronald Reagan. He promised to lift the embargo if he came to power. Reagan won.

The war takes its toll

Businessman Donald Trump became US 45th president in 2016. Will he spend more than four years in the White House for him? Of course, it depends on several things. Like Carter, not only did he fall on the grain embargo. But it was important to him.

And today, the trade war with China is becoming just as important to Trump. One of his strongest cards is to point out how well the US economy has done. He does not want it to start hacking because of the trade war. But there are more and more signs that it is now starting to raise its price.

Key State Iowa hard hit

This is clearly seen in the peasants' wallets, they have been hit directly by Chinese trade tariffs on US agricultural products. This is most evident in Iowa, which previously sent the majority of its soybeans to China.

Eventually, Iowa is also one of the key states in the presidential election. There you swing here, than there. Last time, the Republicans swung over and voted for Trump.

Farmers important voter group

Trump has so far enjoyed great support in the fields. 6 out of 10 in the countryside, and even more among farmers there, voted for him in 2016. But in several agricultural-heavy states, the victory margin was so scarce that the farmer votes could become the tongue of the wave in 2020.

Tactically, raised tariffs on US agricultural products are quite the target for Beijing if one intends to sabotage Trump's reelection chances.

Trump's patch on the wound

In Iowa, other markets are now looking feverishly, and soybean prices are plummeting. Will the farmers rage again? Unlike Jimmy Carter, Donald Trump has been quicker to patch the wounds. He has pledged $ 28 billion to trade war-affected peasants. He recently tweeted that more could come, if needed. And so far, it seems that most people like the soybean farmer Robb Ewoldt, who voted for Trump in 2016:

-We have to save more, slim more, I have to keep driving trucks at night to get the economy together. But now it's just to ride out this trade war, I think it's best in the long run.