Battle break bone between Washington and Ankara .. Is Turkey moving militarily east of the Euphrates?

Zaher Bey-Ankara

Every time Turkey nears the start of a military operation east of the Euphrates in northern Syria, the United States tries to rein in its moratorium; however, this time Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's threats to launch the operation appear more serious.

Earlier, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar issued a threat, described by some as an "important shift," saying that "his country will be forced to establish a safe area in northeastern Syria on its own, if there is no common understanding with the United States."

This was followed by an assertion by the Turkish National Security Council that Turkey is fully determined to establish a “peace corridor instead of the terrorist corridor in northern Syria,” a statement issued last week by the council, referring to an imminent operation against Kurdish protection units, is the backbone of the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces.

Faced with these developments, many questions arise: Are Turkey really going to move on the ground, or are the statements of Turkish officials just threats like its predecessors? What scenario is expected after this move if it is on the ground?

Serious threats
In this context, the writer close to the Turkish government Hamza Tekin told Al-Jazeera Net, "The previous Turkish threats to launch a military operation against terrorist organizations east of the Euphrates were not just media threats, without the strong statements of Turkish officials over the past period, we would not have today Strict and final seriousness. "

"Ankara has officially informed the US side that the joint military operation between the Turkish army and the Free Syrian Army against terrorist organizations east of the Euphrates will take place, and Turkey will not wait for further procrastination from this side or that," Tekin added.

The Turkish journalist writes that Turkey's patience has run out, and Turkish military preparations on the border with Syria are 100% complete, and the start of the operation is only diminished by President Erdogan's final order.

For his part, Kurdish researcher at the Syrian Center in Amran, Istanbul, Badr Mulla Rashid, said that the recent Turkish statements exceeded the stage of threats that have been repeated since the Euphrates Shield and later olive branch, and entered a more serious stage accompanied by attempts to reach Turkey and "Astana partners" formula solution in Idlib.

"Turkey realizes that Russia will use its lack of understanding with America to bring greater pressure in Idlib whenever it has the opportunity," he told Al Jazeera Net. "So it is increasing its pressure on its NATO partner to try to improve its conditions west of the river and achieve its goal of ending self-administration."

Mullah Rashid believes that the United States has so far offered two options for Ankara: the first joint safe area project, which will be inclusive of all border extensions, and the second has given Ankara the green light to carry out limited time and space operations, including a limited geographic scope and time frame known.

Scenarios
Regarding the expected scenario if Turkey moves on the ground and launches its supposed military operation, the Kurdish researcher at the Syrian Amran Center put forward several scenarios:

- Turkish-American agreement
If an agreement is reached between Ankara and Washington, we will have an agreement similar to Manbij, but with stronger and faster operational aspects, such as Turkish rounds inside the northern Syrian border. Its depth is between 10 and 20 km.

- Intensive targeting and limited operations
The second scenario, according to Mullah Rashid, in the absence of an American-Turkish understanding, is expected to be an intensive targeting of the YPG along the Syrian-Turkish border, with the subsequent military operations targeting specific points most likely nowadays sections of the road between the cities Darbasiyah and Ras al-Ain, and the other between the town of Tal Abyad to Ain al-Arab Kobani west.

If the operation is successful in these areas, Turkey will start to pressure Washington to gain military influence at the link between Syria's border with Iraqi Kurdistan, which will remain in the foreseeable future, unless Turkey tries to use all its tools in the international coalition.

Cracked and confused
In turn, Turkish journalist Hamza Tekin said that "we have information from inside Syria that the elements of terrorist organizations are in a state of crack and confusion, and therefore the first strike of the Turkish army and the Free Syrian National Army will be painful and affect the cohesion of these organizations."

He said that from a military point of view, there is no way to compare the emerging militia with an army considered one of the ten strongest armies in the world will enter an area where he enjoys a very popular incubator, and therefore military matters are easy, especially since the US military does not have the mandate of Congress to protect these organizations east of the Euphrates, according to The Washington Post.

Tekin said that America might give up protecting these organizations, as it did in the operation of the "olive branch" in Afrin, as it has done time and time again with those who used tools to achieve its interests only.