The Brexit negotiations seem to have reached a crucial interim target. After the British government announced on Tuesday that there was an agreement with Brussels, there were increasing signs in the EU capital that EU and UK negotiators had worked out a robust paper on a technical level.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Theresa May wants to swear her cabinet on the Brussels agreement.

An official confirmation for a deal did not exist from Brussels at first. However, the ambassadors of the 27 remaining EU countries want to discuss on Wednesday a timetable for a possible special summit at the end of the month, a move that would be pointless if there is no reason for cautious optimism.

Wednesdays Discussions in the cabinet, if successful: special summit on 25 November

Most recently, the talks were held until late into the night in the so-called "tunnel", under maximum secrecy and with the mutual assurance that none of them penetrate prematurely. Then, on Tuesday evening, a spokesman for Mays confirmed that there was indeed a draft contract.

The Prime Minister had summoned her cabinet to an extraordinary meeting on Wednesday, 2 pm local time. Their goal is to announce, if possible, on Wednesday that their government is largely closed behind the agreement reached with Brussels. After that, an EU special summit, presumably on 25 November, would be convened immediately.

Will May enforce the result of the negotiators at home this time?

In Brussels, on the other hand, one is cautious with the word unification. There is a text that the negotiators have agreed on, but politically it has not yet been approved, say EU diplomats familiar with the matter. Now the ball is, again, in London. A similar situation had already existed about four weeks ago, when the negotiators in Brussels had also come a long way, 10 Downing Street but pulled the plug at the last second because May could not enforce the result in London.

Nevertheless, the EU is also preparing the groundwork for a special summit where May could stage enough negotiating drama for the audience on the island. The meeting of the ambassadors of the 27 remaining EU countries on Wednesday afternoon was expanded to include the item "State of Play", ie the status of the Brexit negotiations.

Originally, they wanted to discuss only the preparations for the case that there is no agreement. If the meeting is positive, a so-called General Council of European Ministers could be convened early next week to prepare the special summit of Heads of State and Government. These plans are still in the subjunctive.

REUTERS

Environment Minister Michael Gove

400-page reading of ministers at 10 Downing Street

Everything now depends on the signals from London. Whether May manages to assemble her cabinet behind the Brussels paper is open. All Ministers were sequentially summoned to 10 Downing Street Tuesday to study the approximately 400-page draft treaty. Including those political heavyweights, whose judgment depends on the further fate of the Brexit and May, led by Interior Minister Sajid Javid, Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt and Environment Minister Michael Gove. All three are said to have ambitions to replace May sooner rather than later on the London executive chair.

The crux of the issue is whether May has succeeded in wresting another decisive concession from the EU to Ireland. To prevent visible customs and customs controls at the Irish-Northern Ireland border after Brexit, London and Brussels had agreed weeks ago that the United Kingdom could remain in the Customs Union with the EU pending the conclusion of a free trade agreement.

For May, this also served to disguise a special rule for Northern Ireland, the so-called backstop. Linguistically, the EU May seems to have come a long way, but less in the matter. The EU continues to insist on this emergency rule for Northern Ireland to remain in the Single Market in the Customs Union and to enter into force if no better solution can be found in the negotiations on future relations.

Crucial Crucible: The Vote in the British Parliament

However, London has always insisted that it can unilaterally end these standard rules. Conversely, Brussels insisted that this could only happen with his consent and that the last word must be the Brexiteers' so hated European Court of Justice. At the end of tough negotiations these were the last remaining issues. Several EU countries have also expressed concern at past ambassadorial meetings that the UK could take special privileges in a customs union and undercut EU standards such as environmental protection or social policies.

In addition: Even if it should succeed with the agreement now reached May to unite her Cabinet without further significant resignations behind and even if an EU special summit at the end of November should approve the deal, the decisive ordeal is still pending.

"May has no chance to get anything through parliament"

By mid-December, May would have to submit the agreement to the British Parliament for a vote. 320 votes will be needed there. Their own party, however, comes only 318 MPs, the Prime Minister is therefore dependent on ten votes of the ultranationalist Northern Irish DUP. It has already indicated that it will not agree to any deal that grants Northern Ireland special status within the Kingdom after Brexit.

In addition, May in their own party from both sides put massive pressure: Stubborn EU enemies reject in principle any compromise with the EU, passionate EU friends hope to be able to completely prevent the Brexit. That enough Members of the Opposition May could jump aside if necessary, is considered unlikely.

On Tuesday, one of the most bitter Brexit Ultras, Conservative ex-Minister of State Steve Baker, was sure of victory. He told SPIEGEL: "The prime minister has no chance to get anything through parliament."

Graphic for the Brexit Deal

The state of the negotiationsHow's Brexit Poker