Algeria .. Scenarios after the fourth Friday

Islam Abdel-Hai-Algeria

Since the beginning of the Algerian demonstrations on 22 February against the extension of the rule of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, it seems that the Authority is betting on gaining more time to absorb the anger of the Algerians, and breaking their determination, by making offers so far did not satisfy the street, which went out for the fourth consecutive day in record numbers exceeded All expectations.

Over time, alternatives to the political system have begun to narrow out of this crisis and are heading towards a political impasse because the constitution and existing institutions are unable to overcome this crisis.

"Departure means leaving"
After a series of decisions announced by the president last week, which led to a government reshuffle, introduced the post of deputy prime minister, and retracted the intention to run the presidential campaign, citizens took the street carrying a number of slogans expressing their resentment of those decisions. "Departure means to leave, leave ... you mean to leave, Bouteflika, do not exceed a minute, leave" and other expressions that emerged as a first reaction.

Observers of Algerian affairs expect three scenarios to emerge from the crisis, in light of the government's "offers", and the rejection of popular movement, which presented during the fourth Friday a "popular referendum" of the road map set by the Authority, namely:

First: Ignore power
Mohammed Omaroun, a professor of political science at the University of Bejaia, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, presents the scenario of power in implementing the proposed road map, despite its popular rejection, and relying on two main factors: trying to penetrate the popular movement by attracting a group of activists or symbols of this movement and negotiating with them. The symposium is the university that is working to make it succeed, or to appoint some leaders of the movement with the transitional technocrat government to be formed, but this solution remains lame - according to his opinion - because it does not satisfy everyone.

Second: More concessions
The Authority is facing a fundamental problem, as the interlocutors have not been able to negotiate with the demonstrators, and the opposition has rejected the proposed seminar.

Media Najib Belhimer - in his speech to the island Net - expected to resort to the Authority to bet on "to respond in part to the demands of the protesters because the main priority for them is to stop the marches."

Nor does it rule out the abdication of Prime Minister Nureddin Badawi and his deputy Ramtan Lamamra, and the proposal of a new government of consensus technocrats on another front.

In the same direction, political analyst Mohamed Omron expects the PA to offer further concessions to the popular movement to create a compromise ground through which the movement will accept dialogue with the PA, such as the president's promise of resignation before April 28, To choose a leadership represented by a transitional government, but the problem remains the question of "the no-confidence between mobility and power".

After April 28, the president remains in power does not give him the powers of the President, but becomes the head of state, and if he resigned after the end of his current mandate this leads to some sort of relaxation and the beginning of the solution in view of the demands of the street,

Third: Departure
The options are narrowing day by day because the main demand for the demonstrators is the departure of the president and his entourage (who have been in the fifth position) and this is the only reason for postponing the postponement and extension, observers said.

The increasing pressure on the political system and the ability of the movement to create new mechanisms of pressure on power creates a third scenario - according to Imron - "The regime is finally stepping down from the political front to avoid confrontation with the street. The Supreme Security Council intervenes in May 1991 and declares a state of emergency , A transitional government that oversees the organization of elections or a transitional phase, "but this action does not lead to a radical change of power, according to Belhimer, while leading to a dialogue with certain parties or how to move.

Can the power go for this option (withdrawal)? Belhimer replies that "this option has been circumvented since the beginning, because the problem of the fifth state and the decisions that came in response to the popular movement were all linked to the idea of ​​avoiding the option of leaving Bouteflika, despite his health and vacancy in the presidency, The problems occurred in Algeria because of the refusal to leave Bouteflika and his determination to rule for life. "

Belhimer explained to al-Jazeera Net that the presidency was out of "constitutional legitimacy" because the decision to postpone the elections is unconstitutional, and this recognition of Amamra, when the exit from the "constitutional legitimacy" ended, and all decisions that correspond to the demands of the demonstrators are justified by "popular legitimacy."