Supercomputer "Tomitake" High probability "Linear precipitation zone" predicted Japan Meteorological Agency analyzed November 3, 4:30
In the heavy rain disaster in July, a "linear rain zone" occurred in Kumamoto prefecture, causing great damage such as flooding of rivers.
When we analyzed this "linear precipitation zone", which is difficult to predict in advance, with a supercomputer, we were able to predict heavy rainfall with a high probability even half a day before the flood, so the Meteorological Research Institute said, "It will take time to put it to practical use. I want to make use of it in disaster risk research. "
The Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency was able to predict in advance the heavy rainfall in the "linear precipitation zone" that caused the flooding of the Kuma River in Kumamoto Prefecture, or the RIKEN supercomputer "Tomitake", which boasts the world's fastest calculation speed. I analyzed it using.
In the normal forecast of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the accumulated rainfall is calculated mainly based on 21 forecasts, but by using "Tomitake", 1000 forecasts, which is about 50 times, were made.
As a result, it was possible to predict a heavy rainfall with a cumulative rainfall of 200 mm with a 60% probability half a day before the flooding occurred in the Kuma River basin.
Normal forecasts do not predict heavy rain at this point, and it is expected in the future, but it will take a considerable amount of time to put it into practical use because a supercomputer like "Tomitake" cannot always be used. It is said.
Takuya Kawabata, director of the Meteorological Research Institute, said, "Based on the research results, I would like to make use of it in my research on how to predict disaster risks and how to provide information that can easily lead to evacuation of residents."