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  • Results. Seroprevalence study: only 5% of Spaniards have antibodies against the coronavirus

The first round of the National Study of seroepidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Spain shows that only a small proportion of Spaniards (5%) have undergone Covid-19. This type of study is undoubtedly important because it indicates, among other things, that there have been approximately 10 times more infections than those officially diagnosed and recognized . But in relation to this study, in mid-April, he wrote the following:

" These types of studies are important to understand the evolution of the epidemic, especially if they are serialized. However, they will cause disappointment, due to their relative slowness and the lack of resolution of their findings .

Let's give examples. If the prevalence (proportion) of immune is low, and we can put that threshold, a priori , at less than 10%, that means that there is a pandemic for a while, since the rest, 90% of Spaniards, would be vulnerable. If, on the other hand, it were 'high', and it is totally implausible that, except in very specific places, that figure was above 30%, the problem would be slightly less, but equally threatening (70% of the population would be totally susceptible suffer the disease).

As there will also be wide swings between territories, the problem will remain on the table with no easy solution. The unconfined measures segregated by regions, although they may apparently make a lot of epidemiological sense, are impractical and less safe: they would cause an effect of the 'communicating vessels' and would end up turning against each other, in territories as permeable as the communities of Spain. The first seroprevalence survey will not be a definitive contribution to decision-making about unconfinement . "

That article, written just a month ago now, was titled Doubts, Certainties, and Melancholy . And it is melancholic to think that, indeed, this is more or less what contributes the, moreover, necessary first round of the National Study of seroepidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Spain .

Without these data, the essential decisions of the unconfinement plan were made, premature in my opinion and with a congenital error: asymmetry . An 'asymmetric plan' shows that some have understood nothing of what this country is like, of the territorial tensions it is causing and of the flows of people that will inevitably take place from the confined to the relatively free territories. The race to be first and avoid reputational damage is served.

Without these data, the need to maintain epidemiological surveillance and control of all incident cases (new cases), of prevalent cases (those that remain in the hospital or home with infection) and of all, absolutely all close contacts, was already evident. , to quarantine them.

Despite these data, the appropriate regulations are still not in place to be able to subject Covid-19 patients to mandatory isolation and to quarantine, also mandatory, for all their contacts, since it is not enough to detect them, but they must be on paid sick leave and in quarantine for 14 days, in addition to performing tests (PCR), even if they are completely asymptomatic. Although this may seem incredible, these types of measures have not yet been taken in Spain . Today they would require judicial protection and in practice would be ineffective.

The relevant question is whether we prefer to have an entire country confined or subject a few people and their families to very restrictive measures, for a short season. And we already knew all this before the survey .

Take good care of yourself: wear face masks, avoid crowds, wash your hands and do not touch your face.

There is a pandemic for a while.

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(*) Juan Martínez Hernández is an expert in Public Health.

In accordance with the criteria of The Trust Project

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