- A list presenting the figures of deaths in the world according to their cause is relayed by Internet users, suggesting that there are far fewer deaths from the coronavirus than for other pathologies in 2020.
- In April, the number of deaths linked to Covid-19 exploded.
- According to doctors, these comparisons are not relevant because they leave out many parameters related to this new virus, much more recent than the other pathologies cited in the list.
"And if not world hunger, we don't talk about it because it doesn't concern us?" With these kinds of comments, Internet users have circulated en masse in recent days on social networks an infographic presenting the number of deaths in the world at the start of 2020 according to their cause. With an avowed intention: to demonstrate that the coronavirus is less deadly than other diseases or scourges, implied, that it would be less serious than you would think.
We find this infographic listing the figures of deaths between January 1 and March 30, 2020 in the world on several Facebook posts that have gone viral. The first two lines directly compare some 36,272 deaths from coronavirus and 119,758 deaths from seasonal flu.
These data suggest that hunger in the world would have claimed the most victims during these three months, with more than two and a half million deaths recorded, just before cancer. Other causes of death unrelated to pathologies are also included, such as deaths related to road accidents.
These figures are reported to be from the Worldometers website. Managed by an international team of developers, researchers and volunteers with the aim of making world statistics available to the public, this site calculates in real time, using algorithms, several types of data relating to the world population, economy, environment, food, or even health. Based on information available on the Web - provided by government agencies (such as the WHO suicide prevention program), organizations and official statistical offices - calculations are made to the nearest millisecond. We can thus follow in real time the figures of the deaths of the day in the world. Since the beginning of 2020, the specialized site has also made it possible to follow the planetary evolution of the coronavirus disease pandemic in real time.
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By way of comparison, Worldometers indicates, on Tuesday, a number of 299,000 deaths due to malaria worldwide since the beginning of the year, which seems to match the number of 241,000 given at the end of March in the list published on the post. viral. The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) estimates that 25,000 people die of hunger and poverty every day, which is compatible with the figure of 2.5 million mentioned in the infographic.
Concerning the coronavirus, the assessment established by AFP (Agence France press) on Monday March 30 from official sources, reports at least 36,674 deaths in the world since the appearance of the disease in December in China, this which also corroborates the figure of 36,272 deaths in three months given by Worldometers.
But this figure has exploded since, as confirmed by the data calculated by Worldometers: it is to date more than 170,000 victims. An estimate close to that of AFP in a latest report published on Monday: "The pandemic has killed at least 165,216 people worldwide, including nearly two-thirds in Europe, since its appearance in China in December. With this development, the Covid-19 has notably exceeded the mortality from seasonal flu.
"The assessment of a pandemic cannot be measured in real time"
Given the evolution of the pandemic, the statistics on the coronavirus indicated by the Facebook post are therefore not representative of the severity of the disease. A video from the program “Désintox”, on Arte, returned this Saturday to the received idea that winter flu is more deadly than Covid-19: “The results of a pandemic cannot be measured in real time . The statistics that the authorities try to give every day are imperfect and incomplete, in particular because they do not take into account deaths at home, but also because the epidemic wave is not over. Each year, for influenza, it is necessary to wait several weeks after the end of the epidemic to make an estimate of mortality. It is not an addition of confirmed cases, but a modeling based on numerous data. "
"In terms of the number of coronavirus deaths, we can see that, three weeks later, it has increased fourfold. We cannot therefore think statically, ”also replies Emmanuel Baron, director of Epicenter, the Doctors Without Borders research center, to which 20 Minutes submitted the infographic that has gone viral on Facebook. “Beyond knowing whether these figures are true or false, we must in any case take into account the fact that the coronavirus is an emerging phenomenon compared to the other pathologies mentioned in this list. We cannot consider that it is less serious than the others, because we cannot predict anything. "
"Comparison is not right"
In the same way, Guillaume Lachenal, professor at Medialab of Sciences Po and historian of medicine, indicated at 20 Minutes on March 13: "There are all kinds of measures to express or assess the health threat: the gross death toll doesn’t is not necessarily relevant, and it is still far too early to assess the current epidemic, especially since it could also have a more global impact on the health system. "
“The main concern with regard to the seasonal flu is the risk of saturation of health services. A fortnight of resuscitation is what makes all the difference. Comparison is not right, "says Emmanuel Baron. "These kinds of rumors were already circulating about the Ebola virus, saying that its severity was overvalued. But this is not where it plays out. It is about the potential of epidemics to destroy our health systems. For the coronavirus, each of us can influence the end result, that's also the difference. "
To find out if the seasonal flu is more virulent than the coronavirus, it is also necessary to take into account the fatality rate, that is to say the proportion of deaths linked to an illness compared to the total number of cases affected by the illness. . The fatality rate for coronavirus is between 2.5 and 3%, almost thirty times higher than that for seasonal flu, which is 0.1%.
Finally, these figures are to be compared with the unprecedented measures taken to stem the epidemic, such as confinement. We will have to wait for a complete scientific and demographic study, which will probably take many months, before having figures on the deaths attributable to the Covid-19 epidemic approaching reality.
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