The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has decided to end its "oil war" against Russia. Riyadh called on OPEC countries and a number of other oil producing states to urgently convene to reach a “fair agreement” and stabilize the falling price of black gold. According to some reports, the meeting will be held on April 6 in a fashionable and now secure video conference format.

The Saudi initiative has caused some stupor among a host of foreign journalists, activists, politicians and professional Russophobes. After all, they wrote so much that Russia in this war is balancing on the verge of defeat. That Moscow will not be able to withstand the price dumping arranged by Saudi Arabia (as a result of which the oil price collapsed almost three times). That Moscow will either fulfill the Saudi ultimatum to reduce production, or will repeat the fate of the Soviet Union and fall apart. But in the end, it turned out that just Saudi Arabia, which proposed a truce, could not stand it (for now we will not use the loud word “surrender”).

However, for knowledgeable people there is nothing strange in this. Those who understand the Middle East realities and objectively assess the capabilities of Russia and KSA understand that it was not Moscow, but Riyadh that was not ready for a large-scale oil war. Not ready either in the economic, or in the domestic political, or in the foreign political sense.

So, the Saudis (contrary to popular belief) do not have much money to wage this conflict.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin has used recent years to build up a cushion of oil-dollar reserves. Since 2015, their volumes have increased by 60% and amount to $ 577 billion. Over the same period, Saudi petrodollar savings decreased by 28% to $ 502 billion, ”writes Bloomberg.

And in the event of a further decline in oil prices, Saudi reserves will be depleted faster than Russian. It is not surprising that Riyadh already reduced the state budget by almost 5% in March, i.e. by more than $ 13 billion.

The situation for KSA is aggravated by the degree of domestic political tolerance for difficulties. If the Russians can calmly tighten their belts (they’ve gotten used to for six years of sanctions), then the Saudi population, living for generations on state support, is not used to such victims. And this is not to mention the thousands of princes of the Saudi dynasty who see oil as the collective property of the family and are not at all delighted that this property is wasted for a penny.

In addition, Saudi Arabia is vulnerable to targeted military strikes, which are, say, regularly carried out by Yemeni rebels. In September 2019, for example, they attacked the most important Saudi oil refinery, as a result of which the extraction of black gold at KSA for some time almost halved. And they can repeat it - especially if friends, old and new, help them in this. OPEC has already warned that if prices continue to fall (that is, the Saudi’s collapse in the oil market), developing countries may lose up to 85% of their oil revenues. After all, it is better to spend part of the state on the rental of some leaders of the Yemeni rebels, rather than lose all the money due to bankruptcy.

Finally, Saudi Arabia is corny does not have the proper level of foreign policy subjectivity for conducting such serious geopolitical operations.

The country in terms of security is completely dependent on the United States - and America is dissatisfied with the price-based special operation arranged by the KSA, beating the interests and wallets of American oilmen. Now America, according to Trump, may “lose an entire sector of the economy”, since the price of $ 25 per barrel is $ 15 lower than the average cost of oil production in the United States.

It is not surprising that a group of senators has already accused Riyadh (and, according to tradition, Moscow) of waging an “economic war against the United States” and subtly hints that the Saudis risk seriously spoiling their relations, up to and including sanctions. According to some media reports, these efforts are actively sponsoring through the lobbying tools the affected American oil companies themselves. After all, it is better to spend part of the state on the rent of some senators, rather than lose all the money due to bankruptcy.

Apparently, it was the pressure of the United States that became the last feather (or rather, weight), which tipped the Saudi balance in favor of the need to negotiate with Moscow. And Donald Trump has even stated how these negotiations will end. “Just talked with my friend Mohammed bin Salman ... I hope and expect them to reduce oil production by 10 million barrels, or maybe more,” the American president tweeted on April 2. Then he specified that the reduction could even be 15 million barrels. After which oil quotes soared.

However, much will depend on whether the United States itself joins this agreement. Before that, the Americans did not undertake any obligations. And if Washington again remains aloof, it will again begin to use the Russian-Saudi agreement to reduce production to increase its own exports (increasing supply on the market, which will lead to a new drop in prices, which means the need for a new reduction in Russian-Saudi production), then a special there will be no sense in new agreements.

A number of American companies and local officials have already begun preliminary negotiations with OPEC and with Russia, and on April 3, Donald Trump will meet with representatives of the oil industry, where, most likely, a deal with OPEC will be discussed. And the main question is whether the American oilmen will agree to surrender honorably after Riyadh.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.