It would seem that nothing more meaningless than the meeting ended in Paris is impossible to imagine. The leaders of Russia, France and Germany sat down at the negotiating table in order to hear from the President of Ukraine what everyone already knew well: he was not ready to fulfill the political points of the Minsk agreements in the form and in the order in which they were written down.
Zelensky, like his predecessor, requires a revision of the basic positions: the law on special status will not receive a constitutional registration, it is not even clear whether it will be prolonged, Kiev will not agree to hold elections in the Donbass until the Russian-Ukrainian border passes under his control.
Poroshenko did not have the opportunity to declare his refusal to fulfill the obligations undertaken by Ukraine in February 2015, when the second Minsk Agreement was signed. Zelensky was given this opportunity. Obviously, Putin, Macron and Merkel knew about his position even before the start of negotiations, since such meetings are carefully prepared at the level of the ministries of foreign affairs: all details are worked out, the results are agreed upon in advance. That is, all participants in the summit were well aware that they would not be able to agree on anything. Why, then, did they decide to participate in a meeting whose zero result was a foregone conclusion?
As for Russia, its interest is understandable. Zelensky fell into a Paris trap, the entrance to which he was kindly opened by all the others. Now, absolutely no one can, simply will not have the right to reproach Moscow for blocking the process of political settlement. At the final press conference, the President of Russia, maintaining complete composure, explained to reporters that the Minsk Agreement - 2 precisely defines the sequence of actions, compliance with which will allow Ukraine to gain access to the border: only the day after the start of elections in the Donbass. Zelensky said a little earlier that this order did not suit him.
Thus, the Paris summit has become a platform on which Ukraine, if you call a spade a spade, has announced its withdrawal from the Minsk agreements. At least from the part that involves a political settlement of the conflict. From this very moment, the problem becomes a headache for France and Germany. They will have to make efforts to return the Ukrainian leadership to the Minsk format. Otherwise, Russia gets the full right to make any decisions - up to the recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics. What follows will be well known. In 2008, after the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russian military bases were deployed on their territory on the basis of interstate treaties.
I think that so far things will not go so far. Apparently, Zelensky asked himself a reprieve.
Four months later, the next meeting will be held in the framework of the Norman format at the level of heads of foreign affairs agencies. Until March, the ruling Ukrainian team will have to neutralize right-wing radicals in one way or another in order to get a new entrance ticket to the Minsk process. It is likely that this ticket has already been issued. The fact that the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov, who controls the most irreconcilable nationalists, was present in Paris, may indicate two directly opposite things.
Or Zelensky was assigned a “beholder” so that he would not step back from the notorious red lines under pressure, or, on the contrary, there is a conspiracy, the essence of which is as follows: the Ukrainian leader returns from Paris in triumph - he intercepted the nationalists' agenda, thereby depriving any sense their accusations of surrender to Russia. The opposition in the person of Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and Vakarchuk, threatening a third "Maidan", is now unable to present anything to the president, since he has fulfilled all its demands in the most uncompromising form in front of the entire international community.
This gives the Ukrainian authorities space for political maneuver. Four months before the new Norman meeting can be used to drive the nationalists to the sidelines of political life, and then return to the Minsk agreements and begin implementing political points. I assume that the leaders of France, Germany and Russia decided to give Zelensky a chance to get the better of the opposition. Only this can explain why they generally agreed to participate in the negotiations, which ended in complete failure.
I think that in March next year the parties will finally form the Minsk package: all red lines will be sent to a landfill. Kiev finally approves a law on special status, which will be prolonged and enshrined in the Constitution, elections in the Donbass, the prevention of prosecution of persons involved in armed conflict.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.