The migration season to Tel Aviv .. The Gulf is the biggest loser

The Israeli raid on Gaza on 11 November, which killed seven Palestinians, a senior Hamas commander and an Israeli officer, led to the terrible failure. The failed secret operation has caused embarrassment not only to Israel but also to Egypt and the United Nations, which seek to broker a long-term truce between Hamas and Israel. The image of Qatar, which provides essential aid to Gaza to contribute to stabilizing the situation and advancing peace efforts, has also been damaged as a result of this setback.

At first glance, the timing of the raid may seem strange, as it is the result of intensive efforts to normalize relations between Israel and the Gulf states. However, it is not surprising that they are aware of Israel's lack of credibility and stability. It has been proven again that the tail of the dog remains crooked, as is commonly said.

Steps towards normalization

In recent weeks, Israel has launched a major campaign aimed at normalizing relations. Benjamin Netanyahu's surprise visit to Amman on October 25 represented the first visit by an Israeli leader to the Sultanate - which has not had diplomatic relations with Israel - for more than two decades. Meanwhile, Bahrain and Israel are believed to hold secret talks in preparation for diplomatic relations.

On 25 October, the Qatari authorities violated the traditions of Arab sports and allowed the Israeli flag to be raised in the skies of the 48th session of the World Gymnastics Championships in Doha. On 28 October, Israel's Minister of Sports and Culture Miri Regev attended the judo tournament in Abu Dhabi, where he played the Israeli national anthem. Two days later, Communications Minister Ayoub Kara delivered a speech in Dubai.

Attempts to normalize relations between Israel and the Gulf states are not new. Arab states have long believed that the path to American complacency passes through Israel. This was the main motive behind the Qatari decision to allow the opening of an Israeli commercial office in Doha in the 1990s.

What is new this time is the momentum of these frantic diplomatic activities, which point to mounting US pressure to normalize relations between the Gulf states and Israel. President Trump's uncompromising support for Israel and his apparent determination to move a major alliance to fight Iran have not allowed the Gulf states to accept a certain degree of relations with Israel. This area was further reduced when Saudi Arabia, with the support of Abu Dhabi, imposed a blockade on Qatar in June 2017, leading to the fragmentation of the GCC unit. Riyadh has imposed more pressure on other Gulf states to normalize relations with Israel this year, when it formed a diplomatic alliance with Washington and Tel Aviv to rescue Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman from his predicament in the wake of the death of Jamal Khashoggi.

Normalization at the expense of the Palestinians

It is clear that any progress in Israeli-Gulf relations will only be at the expense of the Palestinians. The Israeli side, through normalization, aims to eliminate - once and for all - the Saudi-led Arab peace initiative. The 10-member initiative, adopted by the Arab League in 2002, calls for normalization of relations between the Arab world and Israel in exchange for full Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories (including East Jerusalem) and a "just settlement" of the Palestinian refugee problem.

This Israeli strategy has already had some success. It persuaded Riyadh to show its support for a peace agreement that would go beyond the issue of the occupied Palestinian territories, an issue that until recently had been an obstacle to the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations. Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, said in April that the Palestinians should "accept the proposals of tarmac or dowry," implying that Riyadh no longer sees occupation as an insurmountable obstacle to normalization.

Amman's intentions

However, the fact that the leadership of Oman - the Gulf state that prides itself on its ability to break the tide of Saudi Arabia in times of need - the Gulf-Israeli normalization efforts suggests that the Palestinian leadership may not be fully bypassed in the midst of the ongoing process of normalization.

Oman is unlikely to have been under American and Israeli pressure to move forward with an unconditional normalization process. The Sultanate - well known for its willingness to mediate in regional conflicts - would probably hope to achieve more than just normalize its relations with Tel Aviv when it agreed to Netanyahu's visit to Muscat. In fact, Omani Foreign Minister Yousef bin Alawi traveled to Ramallah to meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas just one day after Netanyahu's visit, meaning that Amman's decision to officially welcome Netanyahu was not meant to be at the expense of the Palestinians.

However, before attempting to mediate between Israel and the Palestinian leadership, Oman must scrutinize Netanyahu's policy and his extreme right-wing government, taking into account Israel's famous record for its lack of credibility and stability.

Lessons to consider before embarking on normalization

Oman and the other Gulf states must take several lessons into account before they can further normalize their relations with Israel:

First, Arab leaders must understand the motivations of Netanyahu and his cabinet ministers to visit their countries. Israel wants to recognize the entity of its state throughout the world, and the visit of Israeli officials to the Arab countries contributes to these efforts. Since the Madrid Conference in 1991, Israel has been able to slowly expand its international network and gain recognition from countries in Asia, Africa and elsewhere on the basis of its actual engagement in a peace process with the Palestinians. By demonstrating its urgent desire for peace and normalization of relations, it was able to gain recognition from many important countries, including India and the Vatican, although peace talks were still in its infancy. Although it has since launched three wars on Gaza, it has not lost much recognition, as most countries have difficulty in damaging existing bilateral relations.

Second, Netanyahu is not Yitzhak Rabin. He did not hesitate to slap the Omanis on their faces by attacking Gaza just days after the red carpet in Muscat. The November 11 assassination came a week after Israel agreed to build 20,000 new homes in Ma'aleh Adumim settlement and ordered disproportionate reprisals that increased the number of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces to more than 200 in 2018. These acts A message to any new allies in the Gulf region that they must work with Israel on its terms, and the visits of mutual officials should not be interpreted as an improvement or softening of the attitude towards the Palestinians. In this sense, Arab states must understand that any unconditional exchange of visits with Israel will ultimately strengthen the hegemony of right-wing forces in the country and encourage them to do more.

Thirdly, as a populist leader, Netanyahu realizes that world public opinion, in the era of social networks, is rapidly turning against Israel. The BDS has been relatively successful in the United States and has been very successful in the battle for public opinion in Europe, which I feel threatened. In these circumstances, normalization with the Arab states gives the Israeli prime minister the papers he desperately needs to advance his diplomatic efforts aimed at winning the satisfaction and acceptance of the elite. The relationship between his government and Arab states will often be framed in the context of heated competition for public opinion. This means that if Oman and other countries continue to converge with Israel, Netanyahu will be very careful to see the whole world, and the Gulf states must prepare themselves for a series of disturbing leaks and media attention coordinated by Israel.

Despite all this, some Gulf states - which are desperately seeking western complacency after the Khashoggi earthquake - are likely to go beyond the flow of ministerial visits and sports diplomacy, without setting any conditions to ensure Progress on the Palestinian front. Normalization with Israel will always be difficult to promote, and the Arab street will never accept it. This is a dangerous game played by the un-elected rulers of the Gulf, especially after an Arab spring, albeit a failure, but it showed everyone what the power of the people can achieve. The experiences of Egypt and Jordan give us much to learn. After decades of signing their leaders 'peace agreements with Israel, the Egyptian and Jordanian peoples' perspective on Israel has not changed. In the end, unless normalization is part of greater efforts to achieve peace and stability, it will not benefit anyone, but it will only discredit those who are taking the first steps towards dialogue with Israel.

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Translator (aljazeera.com)