The clash of civilizations What role will America play to counter Chinese influence?
More than two decades ago, Samuel Huntington suggested that the United States might not directly address China, but rather play a secondary role. If anyone played the key role, he said in his book "The Clash of Civilizations": "Theoretically, the United States may try to contain China To play the role of secondary balance, if another country plays the role of the main balance. "
More than 15 years later, US President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski came to look further. He went on to say that the situation of East and South Asia today is similar to that of Europe before the two world wars, and predicted that the fate would be the same: "a devastating war like the two world wars." "The United States should be guided by the general principle that any direct US military involvement in conflicts between rival Asian powers must be avoided," he said.
In his "Strategic Vision", in which he set out his vision to preserve America's hegemony over the world, Brzezinski advised the United States to stop playing the role of the world's policeman temporarily, and to allow the Asian powers to wrestle with each other and drain their capabilities.
US withdrawal from Afghanistan
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China's economy has grown over the last four decades rapidly; the Chinese economy has more than doubled 42 times during the period, accompanied by a rapid modernization of China;
After Brzezinski criticized US involvement in Afghanistan, he described it as beneficial to Asian powers that would fight or fight in many ways. "But the top strategists of these forces (China-Russia-India) are, at the same time, That America's continued involvement in the region is continuing to weaken its global standing even as it is working to dispel potential threats to the security of their countries. "
The same goes for National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger in his book The Global System. "All Afghanistan's neighbors would risk chaos within its borders if Afghanistan reverted to pre-war status," he said.
The rise of China
Once the Soviet Union disintegrated, it began to turn directly to China as a new competitor or as a proxy for America's domination of the world. In the middle of the last decade of the last century, Samuel Huntington discussed the danger of American domination of the world by China's rise. "If China's economic growth continues, it will be the only and most dangerous security issue faced by US policymakers in the early 21st century," he said. And then it became a concern for decision-makers, the media, strategic planners, and others.
China's economy has grown more than 42 times during this period. This growth has been accompanied by a rapid modernization of China: modernization, the military, industrial sectors, agriculture and infrastructure ... This growth and development has resulted in a geo-economic expansion In neighboring countries, and a huge trade opening to the world. China subsequently needed a project that would allow it to export its products more easily and more - the Silk Road.
In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the One-Way and One-Way Initiative, a series of land and maritime routes linking China with Asia, Europe and Africa. China has spent $ 300 billion on the project and will spend $ 10 trillion over the next 10 years. Which invested in the rehabilitation of infrastructure in a number of countries through which the road, through this investment - and sometimes through the debt - was able to acquire the investment of a number of ports in a number of countries; the Indian-Japanese response to it was like a war of war and war Ports.
War of the Road
In response to China's "Silk Road" project, India and Japan announced in 2016 the "Asian-African Growth Corridor" project for maritime connectivity between Africa, India and other countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia and to curb China's growing influence on the continent. Japan has invested $ 40 billion in the project and is preparing to provide another $ 200 billion. India has also invested $ 20 billion and is preparing to provide more.
India had lost the first round of the war of influence between it and China in Myanmar; the latter had significant geopolitical and military influence in the country as well as economic influence. The investment of the Kiaok Fur port on the Bay of Bengal in Arakan of China has provided an important strategic presence in the deep waters of the Indian Ocean.
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China is trying to exploit its relations with Pakistan, the Pakistan-India hostility, and perhaps even the Taliban hostility against India
Once China secured its foothold in the Bay of Bengal on the Indian Ocean, it began to expand its influence elsewhere. In 2015, Pakistan signed an investment contract for Gwadar port in southwestern Pakistan, guaranteeing its presence on the Arabian Sea for 43 years. China extended its influence to Sri Lanka. In mid-2017, it signed an agreement to develop the port of Hambantuna in southern Sri Lanka, which holds 70 percent of the port. "It is a strategy for Beijing to build military alliances and naval bases from Djibouti, through Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar to encircle India and unify its enemies," Indian diplomat Jay Parthasarthy said in an interview with the New Arab.
In return for this expansion and growing Chinese influence, India did not stand idly by, but also expanded its alliances and influence, and even developed its armament. In addition to its alliance with Japan and the launch of the development corridor project. It also worked to limit China's influence in Sri Lanka, worked to settle its border disputes with Bangladesh and developed its economic and political relations with it. It also signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran to develop the port of "Chabhar" on the Gulf of Oman to become a strategic competitor to the port, "Gwadar" Pakistan.
Indian - Russian alliance
In a state of almost indisputable war between India and China, Brzezinski advises the United States not to interfere in it, because its entry will reassure Russia. "Any US-Indian alliance would be a free service to Russia ... would reduce Russia's concerns about China," he said. But that in the vacuum created by the absence of the American role and the expansion of Beijing's influence, all its neighbors will be threatened, and will force Russia and India and perhaps even Japan to form an alliance against China. "In the event of a truly significant war, Between India and China, for example, Russia will almost certainly take the lead in helping India in one way or another. "
At the same time, some Russian thinkers also argue that Moscow should be neutral in the event of a US-Chinese clash. "As the confrontation between the United States and China intensifies, both China and the United States will struggle to form a strategic alliance with Russia," says Svetlana Gumzikova in his article "The United States to Putin: If we stand up against China, we will forgive you." Strategic. "
Relations between Russia and India have developed in recent years at several levels of remarkable development; Russia has become India's first supplier of weapons. "Russia supports Vietnam and India against China," Chinese journalist Ximing said in a televised interview with Fox News.
The role of Muslims in conflict
China will try to exploit its relations with Pakistan, the Pakistan-India hostility, and perhaps even the Taliban hostility against India. On the other hand, some countries on the other side will try to exploit the issue of Uighur Muslims against China, especially with the geographical importance occupied by East Turkestan; it is the gateway of China to Eurasia.
But under the US policy of emptying China and not letting others fear China, it seems that the fate of Uighur Muslims - if they enter into an open conflict with China - will not be very different from the fate of the Rohingya Muslims in Burma, At least in the first phase of the conflict.
In conclusion, the strategy of the United States of America during the two world wars was not to participate at first, but its participation was delayed. The United States entered World War I in April 1917, two and a half years after the war began. And its participation in the Second World War was delayed until the end of 1941. This delay in the entry of world wars - the United States - saved its power and resources from the attrition suffered by the other participating countries. All sides of World War II emerged exhausted except for the United States, which enabled them to harvest the fruit almost unilaterally.