China News Service, April 8 (China News reporter Zuo Yuqing) “Today’s gold price is 693 yuan/g.” “Today’s gold price is 709 yuan/g.” “Today’s gold price is 718 yuan/g, rising again and again!” Zai Xiao In Yu (pseudonym)'s circle of friends, the gold shop salesperson whom I had added before has become a daily broadcaster of gold prices for pure gold jewelry, constantly flooding the screen with the rising prices every day.
After experiencing a surge in March, the domestic gold price continued to surge into April, setting a new record again after the Qingming Festival. However, while "big gold hoarders liquidate" became a hot search on Weibo, many gold holders were also hesitant: to sell, or not to sell?
Gold prices hit record high, institutions bullish to $3,000 an ounce
On April 5, the United States released March non-farm employment data. In March, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was 303,000, higher than the expected 212,000, and higher than the previous value of 270,000; the unemployment rate in March was 3.8%, lower than the expected 3.9%, and lower than the previous value of 3.9% .
Although the U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations and reduced the need for interest rate cuts, it did not put the "brake" on the rising gold price.
On April 5, local time, international gold prices hit a new all-time high. London spot gold rose 1.77% to US$2,329.57 per ounce; COMEX gold rose 1.76% to US$2,349.1 per ounce. With both international gold futures and spot prices reaching record highs, on April 8, the domestic AU9999 gold price exceeded 550 yuan/g, and the gold price of pure gold jewelry also approached 730 yuan/g.
On April 6, Citigroup said it raised its 0-3 month price targets for gold and silver by 9% and 16% respectively, with target prices of US$2,400 per ounce and US$28 per ounce respectively. In addition, the agency also raised its 6-12-month bullish scenario target price ceilings for gold and silver to $3,000 and $32 per ounce, respectively.
Data map: The formed gold bars are placed in water to cool.
So where does the driving force for gold fever come from?
Sinolink Securities pointed out in its latest research report that since 2023, frequent downward revisions of U.S. non-agricultural data and the impact of part-time jobs on the data have reduced the market's trust in non-agricultural data. In addition, U.S. inflation continues to be sticky, and the short-term gold pricing balance is tilted toward inflation. The return of allocation funds may become another driving force for the rise in gold prices.
At the same time, long-term concerns about the credit of the U.S. dollar still exist, and central bank gold purchases support long-term gold prices. According to statistics from the World Gold Council, global official gold reserves increased by 39 tons in January 2024, and Turkey and China once again became the world's two largest official gold buyers. Data from the People's Bank of China showed that China's gold reserves stood at 72.74 million ounces at the end of March and 72.58 million ounces at the end of February, marking the 17th consecutive month of increasing gold reserves.
Industrial Securities believes that the gold boom is essentially driven by the "illusion" of global recession and currency flooding. In 2024, the crisis in Ukraine will continue, the situation in the Middle East will escalate, and as we enter the global "election year", geopolitical uncertainty will increase significantly, and risk aversion will also boost the price of gold.
Faced with the strong rise in gold in the first quarter, Xu Ying, chief analyst of macro strategy at Orient Securities Futures, believes that short-term pricing is sufficient and we need to pay attention to the callback risk caused by profit-taking by speculative funds. In the medium to long term, gold has truly broken through the shock range of the past three years. A new rising cycle has arrived, which will strengthen the market's bullish expectations and attract new capital inflows. Therefore, it is expected that gold prices will still fluctuate upward and move upward. trend.
It is worth mentioning that gold-related funds have recently become the target of capital speculation, which has also attracted the attention of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. According to reports from the Shanghai Securities News and other media, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued an urgent reminder to focus on monitoring the China Gold Stock ETF's continuous daily limit, and strictly supervise investors who frequently participate in the fund's transactions in large numbers and have abnormal trading behaviors.
People who sell gold: 50g gold bar makes a net profit of 4,000 yuan
As the price of gold rises, the price of gold recycling has also increased. The recycling price of many brand gold stores and individual stores is around 530-540 yuan/g. Some stores even offer high prices ranging from 550 yuan-560 yuan/g to attract consumers. to cash in gold.
"I bought investment gold bars in May last year. At that time, I thought it was not a good time to buy gold. Later, it encountered a slight decline. However, I didn't expect that it would skyrocket this year." Xiaoyu told China News Finance that less than a month after the purchase, Years later, my 50g gold bar has made a net profit of 4,000 yuan.
"The price of gold has risen sharply now. I saw that many people on the Internet started to speculate in gold as stocks, so I panicked and sold some of it." Another consumer said that the gold he had purchased at a certain brand online store had already been sold online. The next store was successfully recycled. “It’s 528 yuan/g when you call, but it’s 532.5 yuan/g when you get to the store.”
In February 2024, citizens purchased gold jewelry in shopping malls. Photo by China News Service reporter Yu Jing
However, with gold prices high, some people choose to wait and see. China News Finance has noticed that many of those who still hold gold but do not want to sell it are buyers of gold jewelry.
Ms. Qi told China News Finance that when the gold recycling price was still around 470 yuan, she went to a gold store to sell a gold necklace and a pair of gold earrings, but both were because the jewelry was damaged to a certain extent. "I bought these five years ago. At that time, the gold price was only 358 yuan/g. I can still make a profit by selling them. I don't plan to sell them now because there is still demand for wearing them."
In addition, some people are holding back because of the value of gold. "What matters when buying gold bars is their hard currency properties. The price of gold will only rise but not fall in the short term. You can't go wrong holding it in your hands." Lu Lu (pseudonym), who has successively purchased 2,100g of gold, told China News Finance.
Industrial Securities said that from the more essential logic of gold pricing, the AI revolution is in the ascendant, the probability of recession in Europe and the United States is reduced, global inflation is sticky but unlikely to come back, and the Fed’s monetary easing space is limited under a soft landing, all of which have a negative impact on the valuation of gold. constitute a negative.
Gold recycling is hot, but these issues need attention
For those who want to cash out gold, how to secure it safely is also a skill.
At present, some brand gold stores, banks, pawn shops, and individual recycling merchants can recycle gold. However, different channels and different brands have different recycling rules and processes. Some consumers need to be wary of routines when "price comparison" among the three.
For example, some recycling merchants will use the banner of "high-priced recycling" to attract consumers, but in fact they will greatly reduce the actual recycling price due to problems such as insufficient weight and low purity; they even use "water regia" to dissolve gold, etc. "Steal gold."
Sino-News Finance visited many regular gold stores, and the clerks all said that the brand name and receipt are not necessary documents for gold recycling. If the gold is of good quality, the weight deviation is generally not large. "The general loss is about 0.01-0.03 grams. A normal recycling price of about 10 yuan lower than the market price is normal. If the price is close to the market price or higher than the market price, there are basically routines."
An online gold recycling platform. Screenshot from WeChat applet.
While offline gold recycling is booming, online gold recycling business has also attracted many gold holders. Sino-Singapore Finance has noticed that many platforms currently carry out online gold business, and some precious metal recyclers have also opened online recycling platforms such as official accounts, mini-programs, and APPs.
"Online gold recycling also needs to pay attention to recycling rules. Some of the higher quotations actually require a series of additional service fees, handling fees, and shipping premiums, and some platforms will not notify these fees in advance." A former online merchant Consumers who have sold gold through the program told China News Finance that although the price of online recycling is considerable, it is actually not as convenient as imagined. "I took a video of the whole process when sending the express. Even if the price is guaranteed when sending, I will still worry about problems with the express delivery." (End)