Barthélémy Philippe // Photo credits: MAGALI COHEN / HANS LUCAS / HANS LUCAS VIA AFP 7:28 a.m., March 28, 2024

Gabriel Attal confirmed it Wednesday evening on TF1: a reform of unemployment insurance is planned by the fall. The Prime Minister sees this as a significant source of savings, while the public deficit for 2023 has slipped, but such a reform would ultimately be unprofitable according to some economists.

There will be a reform of unemployment insurance by the fall, as Gabriel Attal said Wednesday evening on the set of TF1. The Prime Minister left several options on the table, such as reducing the maximum compensation period from 18 to 14 or even 12 months, or extending the necessary working time, currently six months over the last two years. to receive unemployment.

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Gabriel Attal sees this future reform as a means of achieving full employment by the end of the five-year term. But above all, a significant source of savings, while the public deficit figures for 2023 caused an electric shock. Despite everything, according to some economists, a new blow to the rights of the unemployed would have limited results.

“It wouldn’t bring in a lot of money.”

Among social spending, unemployment insurance weighs almost ten times less than pensions. A new turn of the screw will therefore not make it possible to truly relieve public finances, according to economist Bertrand Martinot: "This would not bring in a lot of money, because in fact, it is a small minority of unemployed people who use the entirety of their rights. We are gambling on a few tens of millions, at best a few hundred million euros. However, the question of public finances is played out in bundles of billions of euros."

The reform would not be more effective in the quest for full employment by 2027. It would even go against the principle introduced last year, continues the economist: "Unemployment is increasing, we don't even have an assessment of previous reforms. It is very dangerous to embark on a general reduction in unemployment insurance rights. Bertrand Martinot adds: "Unemployment insurance must be more generous when unemployment increases and stricter when unemployment decreases. The last reform that was made, there is a rule of countercyclicality, so let's let it play out." 

“Unacceptable” for the CGT

Targeting unemployment insurance is above all a low-risk political choice. There is consensus among retirees, who vote overwhelmingly for Emmanuel Macron and will not trigger a strike among civil servants, whose employment is guaranteed for life.

Gabriel Attal's announcement, however, sparked strong reactions among the unions. This reform is “unacceptable” for the CGT. The CFTC, a management union, even describes it as “a populist consideration worthy of a bar corner government”. For Marine Le Pen, it is a “scam” which aims to “pick the pockets of the French to replenish the state coffers”.